Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily
Pinned
War and Power
A bold, revisionist study of modern warfare, showing that military victory is rooted not in large armies and decisive battles, but in the full spectrum of ec...
www.publicaffairsbooks.com
Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...
Turns out that executing defenseless, disarmed US citizens might not be very popular.
January 26, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Turns out that executing defenseless, disarmed US citizens might not be very popular.
I hope the last two days have brought home to European leaders the perils involved with lavishly praising Trump. America is on a precipice and is now struggling for its redemption. If the right side wins, it will look askance at those who sucked up to Trump.
January 26, 2026 at 4:31 PM
I hope the last two days have brought home to European leaders the perils involved with lavishly praising Trump. America is on a precipice and is now struggling for its redemption. If the right side wins, it will look askance at those who sucked up to Trump.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Two weeks ago this guy announced he was providing legal help to the agent who shot Renee Good. That's how quickly the winds are shifting.
pretty wild statement re: Republican Chris Madel drop from race for MN governor:
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
January 26, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Two weeks ago this guy announced he was providing legal help to the agent who shot Renee Good. That's how quickly the winds are shifting.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
'Wanneer hij (Trump) zijn bezorgdheid uit over het leven van mensen (zoals Oekraïners), is dat bluf. Het kan hem niets schelen.)
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 1:37 PM
'Wanneer hij (Trump) zijn bezorgdheid uit over het leven van mensen (zoals Oekraïners), is dat bluf. Het kan hem niets schelen.)
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
January 25, 2026 at 9:29 PM
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
So America is on edge, angry and reaching a boiling post--and this is President Trump's latest tweet.
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
January 25, 2026 at 7:05 PM
So America is on edge, angry and reaching a boiling post--and this is President Trump's latest tweet.
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
January 24, 2026; a tipping point in modern American history?
January 25, 2026 at 2:42 PM
January 24, 2026; a tipping point in modern American history?
Worth noting that the @wsj.com has joined with the @nytimes.com and Bellingcat to say that ICE is lying in its description of the shooting of Alex Pretti. The video evidence more and more supports the view that this was a gratuitous execution. www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents
See how immigration officers escalated a fatal confrontation on Saturday.
www.wsj.com
January 25, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Worth noting that the @wsj.com has joined with the @nytimes.com and Bellingcat to say that ICE is lying in its description of the shooting of Alex Pretti. The video evidence more and more supports the view that this was a gratuitous execution. www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
It certainly is ⤵️
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
January 25, 2026 at 10:36 AM
It certainly is ⤵️
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The Board of Peace is a giant cash laundry
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:39 AM
The Board of Peace is a giant cash laundry
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
„Zu verstehen, dass die USA heute das Gegenteil von europäischer Freiheit sind, ist der erste Schritt, um zu akzeptieren, dass die Ukraine für diese Freiheit entsprechend wichtig ist. Das hätte schon längst geschehen müssen, ist aber nicht geschehen.“
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:18 AM
„Zu verstehen, dass die USA heute das Gegenteil von europäischer Freiheit sind, ist der erste Schritt, um zu akzeptieren, dass die Ukraine für diese Freiheit entsprechend wichtig ist. Das hätte schon längst geschehen müssen, ist aber nicht geschehen.“
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
January 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
January 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
If you don't admit that the Trumpian Board of Peace is likely a vehicle to corruptly funnel funds between dictators, authoritarians and their wannabes, you are wilfully refusing to understand the era we are living through. Its all about who controls the money and where it goes.
January 23, 2026 at 2:53 PM
If you don't admit that the Trumpian Board of Peace is likely a vehicle to corruptly funnel funds between dictators, authoritarians and their wannabes, you are wilfully refusing to understand the era we are living through. Its all about who controls the money and where it goes.
When Trump lied and slandered European troops by saying that they avoided the front lines in Afghanistan, it was no mistake. It was a deliberate attempt to run down NATO in American eyes, to try and condition the American people to accept the end of the alliance.
January 23, 2026 at 2:23 PM
When Trump lied and slandered European troops by saying that they avoided the front lines in Afghanistan, it was no mistake. It was a deliberate attempt to run down NATO in American eyes, to try and condition the American people to accept the end of the alliance.
Here is a key part of President's Zelensky's address in Davos yesterday. What he says outwardly and implicitly is key. Trump actually hates Europe today, will not change, Europe needs to accept that and look after itself.
Bravo!
Bravo!
January 23, 2026 at 9:56 AM
Here is a key part of President's Zelensky's address in Davos yesterday. What he says outwardly and implicitly is key. Trump actually hates Europe today, will not change, Europe needs to accept that and look after itself.
Bravo!
Bravo!
Hi all, at 1900 today Ukraine time at noon EST, I will be holding a Substack live with Taras Tymochko of Come Back Alive. We will be discussing how defensive drones are being used to protect against attack drones, which is saving many Ukrainian lives.
January 23, 2026 at 6:06 AM
Hi all, at 1900 today Ukraine time at noon EST, I will be holding a Substack live with Taras Tymochko of Come Back Alive. We will be discussing how defensive drones are being used to protect against attack drones, which is saving many Ukrainian lives.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The band is back together again.
January 23, 2026 at 12:43 AM
The band is back together again.
Zelensky is entirely justified in speaking bluntly like this to Europeans. Too many seem willing to see Ukrainians suffer to provide Europe greater time and security, without acknowledging that Ukraine’s fight is their own.
January 22, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Zelensky is entirely justified in speaking bluntly like this to Europeans. Too many seem willing to see Ukrainians suffer to provide Europe greater time and security, without acknowledging that Ukraine’s fight is their own.
It is now more than two weeks since we were told that Trump had "greelit" the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill on Russia. I thought a vote was going to be scheduled right away. Where is it?
Looks like we might have to wait another two weeks....
Looks like we might have to wait another two weeks....
January 22, 2026 at 2:47 PM
It is now more than two weeks since we were told that Trump had "greelit" the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill on Russia. I thought a vote was going to be scheduled right away. Where is it?
Looks like we might have to wait another two weeks....
Looks like we might have to wait another two weeks....
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The Congress and businesses might also take a lesson from this…
The last few days have provided Europeans with an important lesson on how to handle Trump. Don't beg, don't bluster, but do use the leverage you have to impose costs of him for his reckless behavior. European Greenland actions should inform their Ukraine policy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Well Europe, Do You Get It Finally? Standing Up To Trump Works Better Than Prostrating Yourself
Now, do the same about Ukraine
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:38 AM
The Congress and businesses might also take a lesson from this…
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
🎯👇
"The climbdown was also notable because it revealed that instead of constantly kissing Trump’s behind in the hope that he might crap a concession or two their way, the Europeans behaved very differently over Greenland. It will hopefully be a salutary lesson guiding their behavior going forward."
"The climbdown was also notable because it revealed that instead of constantly kissing Trump’s behind in the hope that he might crap a concession or two their way, the Europeans behaved very differently over Greenland. It will hopefully be a salutary lesson guiding their behavior going forward."
The last few days have provided Europeans with an important lesson on how to handle Trump. Don't beg, don't bluster, but do use the leverage you have to impose costs of him for his reckless behavior. European Greenland actions should inform their Ukraine policy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Well Europe, Do You Get It Finally? Standing Up To Trump Works Better Than Prostrating Yourself
Now, do the same about Ukraine
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 11:50 AM
🎯👇
"The climbdown was also notable because it revealed that instead of constantly kissing Trump’s behind in the hope that he might crap a concession or two their way, the Europeans behaved very differently over Greenland. It will hopefully be a salutary lesson guiding their behavior going forward."
"The climbdown was also notable because it revealed that instead of constantly kissing Trump’s behind in the hope that he might crap a concession or two their way, the Europeans behaved very differently over Greenland. It will hopefully be a salutary lesson guiding their behavior going forward."
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Europa hat hoffentlich die Lektion gelernt, dass man dem 🍊🦧◼️🌮 tüchtig Kontra geben muss und Gegenmassnahmen einleiten muss, damit er einknickt wie ein dürrer Ast. In seinen rektalen Ausgang rein kriechen ist absolut nutzlos.
Allerding hebe ich meine Zweifel, bei den meisten unserer Politiker. 🤨🤷♂️
Allerding hebe ich meine Zweifel, bei den meisten unserer Politiker. 🤨🤷♂️
The last few days have provided Europeans with an important lesson on how to handle Trump. Don't beg, don't bluster, but do use the leverage you have to impose costs of him for his reckless behavior. European Greenland actions should inform their Ukraine policy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Well Europe, Do You Get It Finally? Standing Up To Trump Works Better Than Prostrating Yourself
Now, do the same about Ukraine
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Europa hat hoffentlich die Lektion gelernt, dass man dem 🍊🦧◼️🌮 tüchtig Kontra geben muss und Gegenmassnahmen einleiten muss, damit er einknickt wie ein dürrer Ast. In seinen rektalen Ausgang rein kriechen ist absolut nutzlos.
Allerding hebe ich meine Zweifel, bei den meisten unserer Politiker. 🤨🤷♂️
Allerding hebe ich meine Zweifel, bei den meisten unserer Politiker. 🤨🤷♂️