Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily
Pinned
War and Power
A bold, revisionist study of modern warfare, showing that military victory is rooted not in large armies and decisive battles, but in the full spectrum of ec...
www.publicaffairsbooks.com
Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Jesus, it's like Dorian Gray's attic portrait with a spray tan...
Anyone surprised by this story has been living in a fantasy world. Since Jan 2025, the Trump administration has been using lots of different tactics to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide. This is just the latest.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
⚡️Ukraine war latest live: US presses Ukraine, not Russia, to pull back troops for proposed Donbas buffer zone – FT reports
January 27, 2026 at 10:01 AM
Jesus, it's like Dorian Gray's attic portrait with a spray tan...
Anyone surprised by this story has been living in a fantasy world. Since Jan 2025, the Trump administration has been using lots of different tactics to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide. This is just the latest.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
⚡️Ukraine war latest live: US presses Ukraine, not Russia, to pull back troops for proposed Donbas buffer zone – FT reports
Ukraine war latest updates: US not demanding Russian withdrawal from eastern border of proposed Donbas demilitarized zone, FT reports (5)
Live coverage of Russia’s war against Ukraine with breaking news and frontline updates, updated 5 times today. The U.S. is pressing Ukraine, but not Russia, to pull back troops from Donetsk and Luhans...
kyivindependent.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:37 AM
Anyone surprised by this story has been living in a fantasy world. Since Jan 2025, the Trump administration has been using lots of different tactics to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide. This is just the latest.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
The real story is that people have not grasped this reality.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
“Trump has one great tell that an issue really does not matter to him.
It is when he acts like he cares about the human beings involved in the matter. When Trump says he wants the killings (…) to stop or the oppression of others to end, it is the clearest indication that he could not care less.”
It is when he acts like he cares about the human beings involved in the matter. When Trump says he wants the killings (…) to stop or the oppression of others to end, it is the clearest indication that he could not care less.”
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 5:41 PM
“Trump has one great tell that an issue really does not matter to him.
It is when he acts like he cares about the human beings involved in the matter. When Trump says he wants the killings (…) to stop or the oppression of others to end, it is the clearest indication that he could not care less.”
It is when he acts like he cares about the human beings involved in the matter. When Trump says he wants the killings (…) to stop or the oppression of others to end, it is the clearest indication that he could not care less.”
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
This is essentially the same message that @phillipspobrien.bsky.social has been trying to get through to his European followers since Trump returned to office last year. His latest;
bsky.app/profile/phil...
bsky.app/profile/phil...
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:10 PM
This is essentially the same message that @phillipspobrien.bsky.social has been trying to get through to his European followers since Trump returned to office last year. His latest;
bsky.app/profile/phil...
bsky.app/profile/phil...
Turns out that executing defenseless, disarmed US citizens might not be very popular.
January 26, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Turns out that executing defenseless, disarmed US citizens might not be very popular.
I hope the last two days have brought home to European leaders the perils involved with lavishly praising Trump. America is on a precipice and is now struggling for its redemption. If the right side wins, it will look askance at those who sucked up to Trump.
January 26, 2026 at 4:31 PM
I hope the last two days have brought home to European leaders the perils involved with lavishly praising Trump. America is on a precipice and is now struggling for its redemption. If the right side wins, it will look askance at those who sucked up to Trump.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Two weeks ago this guy announced he was providing legal help to the agent who shot Renee Good. That's how quickly the winds are shifting.
pretty wild statement re: Republican Chris Madel drop from race for MN governor:
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
"Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."
January 26, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Two weeks ago this guy announced he was providing legal help to the agent who shot Renee Good. That's how quickly the winds are shifting.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
'Wanneer hij (Trump) zijn bezorgdheid uit over het leven van mensen (zoals Oekraïners), is dat bluf. Het kan hem niets schelen.)
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 1:37 PM
'Wanneer hij (Trump) zijn bezorgdheid uit over het leven van mensen (zoals Oekraïners), is dat bluf. Het kan hem niets schelen.)
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Trump "Tell"
How You Can Tell He Does Not Care About An Issue
open.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Just sent out this post. Trump has a basic "tell" which indicates things he does not care about (and those he does). When he expresses a concern about people's lives (such as Ukrainians) it’s a bluff. He could not care less. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
January 25, 2026 at 9:29 PM
In the end there will be only one Trump Derangement Syndrome, and that will be those so deranged that they refused to accept that Trump was going to try and wreck the country.
So America is on edge, angry and reaching a boiling post--and this is President Trump's latest tweet.
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
January 25, 2026 at 7:05 PM
So America is on edge, angry and reaching a boiling post--and this is President Trump's latest tweet.
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
Serious Nero fiddling while Rome is burning vibes...
January 24, 2026; a tipping point in modern American history?
January 25, 2026 at 2:42 PM
January 24, 2026; a tipping point in modern American history?
Worth noting that the @wsj.com has joined with the @nytimes.com and Bellingcat to say that ICE is lying in its description of the shooting of Alex Pretti. The video evidence more and more supports the view that this was a gratuitous execution. www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents
See how immigration officers escalated a fatal confrontation on Saturday.
www.wsj.com
January 25, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Worth noting that the @wsj.com has joined with the @nytimes.com and Bellingcat to say that ICE is lying in its description of the shooting of Alex Pretti. The video evidence more and more supports the view that this was a gratuitous execution. www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
It certainly is ⤵️
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
January 25, 2026 at 10:36 AM
It certainly is ⤵️
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
‘Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream’ open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The Board of Peace is a giant cash laundry
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:39 AM
The Board of Peace is a giant cash laundry
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
„Zu verstehen, dass die USA heute das Gegenteil von europäischer Freiheit sind, ist der erste Schritt, um zu akzeptieren, dass die Ukraine für diese Freiheit entsprechend wichtig ist. Das hätte schon längst geschehen müssen, ist aber nicht geschehen.“
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:18 AM
„Zu verstehen, dass die USA heute das Gegenteil von europäischer Freiheit sind, ist der erste Schritt, um zu akzeptieren, dass die Ukraine für diese Freiheit entsprechend wichtig ist. Das hätte schon längst geschehen müssen, ist aber nicht geschehen.“
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Ein starkes Europa gibt nur MIT der Ukraine. ☝️
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved
Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military
open.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Just released my free weekend update. This week answered an important riddle. How was the US to be paid from seized Russian assets? why the new "Board of Peace" is the perfect vehicle. Completely unaccountable and unsanctionable, it is a corrupt ruler’s dream. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
January 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
January 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM
In three years either ICE will be abolished or the USA will be a police state. Hard to see it ending any other way.
If you don't admit that the Trumpian Board of Peace is likely a vehicle to corruptly funnel funds between dictators, authoritarians and their wannabes, you are wilfully refusing to understand the era we are living through. Its all about who controls the money and where it goes.
January 23, 2026 at 2:53 PM
If you don't admit that the Trumpian Board of Peace is likely a vehicle to corruptly funnel funds between dictators, authoritarians and their wannabes, you are wilfully refusing to understand the era we are living through. Its all about who controls the money and where it goes.
When Trump lied and slandered European troops by saying that they avoided the front lines in Afghanistan, it was no mistake. It was a deliberate attempt to run down NATO in American eyes, to try and condition the American people to accept the end of the alliance.
January 23, 2026 at 2:23 PM
When Trump lied and slandered European troops by saying that they avoided the front lines in Afghanistan, it was no mistake. It was a deliberate attempt to run down NATO in American eyes, to try and condition the American people to accept the end of the alliance.
Here is a key part of President's Zelensky's address in Davos yesterday. What he says outwardly and implicitly is key. Trump actually hates Europe today, will not change, Europe needs to accept that and look after itself.
Bravo!
Bravo!
January 23, 2026 at 9:56 AM
Here is a key part of President's Zelensky's address in Davos yesterday. What he says outwardly and implicitly is key. Trump actually hates Europe today, will not change, Europe needs to accept that and look after itself.
Bravo!
Bravo!
Hi all, at 1900 today Ukraine time at noon EST, I will be holding a Substack live with Taras Tymochko of Come Back Alive. We will be discussing how defensive drones are being used to protect against attack drones, which is saving many Ukrainian lives.
January 23, 2026 at 6:06 AM
Hi all, at 1900 today Ukraine time at noon EST, I will be holding a Substack live with Taras Tymochko of Come Back Alive. We will be discussing how defensive drones are being used to protect against attack drones, which is saving many Ukrainian lives.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The band is back together again.
January 23, 2026 at 12:43 AM
The band is back together again.
Zelensky is entirely justified in speaking bluntly like this to Europeans. Too many seem willing to see Ukrainians suffer to provide Europe greater time and security, without acknowledging that Ukraine’s fight is their own.
January 22, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Zelensky is entirely justified in speaking bluntly like this to Europeans. Too many seem willing to see Ukrainians suffer to provide Europe greater time and security, without acknowledging that Ukraine’s fight is their own.