Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily
Pinned
War and Power
A bold, revisionist study of modern warfare, showing that military victory is rooted not in large armies and decisive battles, but in the full spectrum of ec...
www.publicaffairsbooks.com
Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...
The sound you are hearing from the Trump administration is political panic. Because of all the corruption they cannot afford to lose the 2026 midterms, but they know in a free vote they are looking at defeat.
The implication of this is that they will try to thwart a free vote.
The implication of this is that they will try to thwart a free vote.
November 25, 2025 at 2:42 AM
The sound you are hearing from the Trump administration is political panic. Because of all the corruption they cannot afford to lose the 2026 midterms, but they know in a free vote they are looking at defeat.
The implication of this is that they will try to thwart a free vote.
The implication of this is that they will try to thwart a free vote.
Here Rajan Menon calls the Trump plan what it is, an abomination.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump’s ‘peace plan’ was a pro-Kremlin abomination whose failure is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine | Rajan Menon
Following criticism, the president accused Ukraine of ingratitude but also added the plan was ‘not my final offer’. Which parts of it will survive?, says Rajan Menon of the City College of New York
www.theguardian.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Here Rajan Menon calls the Trump plan what it is, an abomination.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
If this is true, European states are inviting their own failures and embracing the end of what brought peace to Europe for 80 years. Welcoming Putin back into the G8, where he can team up with Trump to humiliate Europe invites disaster. www.newsweek.com/europe-russi...
Europe offers G8 return to Russia for Ukraine peace deal
Ukraine did not react positively to the peace deal brokered through the U.S., prompting European leaders to craft a counter-offer.
www.newsweek.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:18 PM
If this is true, European states are inviting their own failures and embracing the end of what brought peace to Europe for 80 years. Welcoming Putin back into the G8, where he can team up with Trump to humiliate Europe invites disaster. www.newsweek.com/europe-russi...
One thing that is not getting enough attention is that Trump has normalized the idea of the United States supporting the transfer of territory and millions of people from a democracy to a dictatorship.
The ending of freedom for millions is now the official US position.
The ending of freedom for millions is now the official US position.
November 24, 2025 at 3:27 PM
One thing that is not getting enough attention is that Trump has normalized the idea of the United States supporting the transfer of territory and millions of people from a democracy to a dictatorship.
The ending of freedom for millions is now the official US position.
The ending of freedom for millions is now the official US position.
Great new Mission Implausible podcast with @johnsipher.bsky.social and Jerry O’Shea podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
NEW EPISODE! - MKUltra: The CIA’s Mind Control Quest (with Stephen Kinzer)
Podcast Episode · Mission Implausible · 23/11/2025 · 1h
podcasts.apple.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Great new Mission Implausible podcast with @johnsipher.bsky.social and Jerry O’Shea podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
This is an excellent, depressing, analysis. Trump accuses Democrats of treason, yet he is the one colluding with Russia, selling out allies, betraying NATO, and surrendering US interests to the diktats of a foreign nation. Trump is a deeply corrupt, compromised, craven Quisling.
November 23, 2025 at 2:18 PM
This is an excellent, depressing, analysis. Trump accuses Democrats of treason, yet he is the one colluding with Russia, selling out allies, betraying NATO, and surrendering US interests to the diktats of a foreign nation. Trump is a deeply corrupt, compromised, craven Quisling.
Trump just went on a long rant about the Russo-Ukraine war. No criticisms at all of Putin or Russia. Attacks Ukraine for a lack of gratitude.
November 23, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Trump just went on a long rant about the Russo-Ukraine war. No criticisms at all of Putin or Russia. Attacks Ukraine for a lack of gratitude.
Hi All, just released my free weekend update. Its fascinating who backed the Trump-Putin 28 point plan, and what it means about the US government being a mouthpiece for Russia. Plus, you cannot back Trump and Ukraine--if you back Trump, you can only have one master open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #160: The US Becomes A Mouthpiece To Pass On Putin's Demands
Vance To The Fore; The 28 Points—Is It More Interesting Who Backed Them?
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Hi All, just released my free weekend update. Its fascinating who backed the Trump-Putin 28 point plan, and what it means about the US government being a mouthpiece for Russia. Plus, you cannot back Trump and Ukraine--if you back Trump, you can only have one master open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
The last few hours have proven 2 terrible things. First, the US and Russian governments are so close that the US government takes large parts of Russian proposals and passes them off as their own, and second that some people are so desperate to exonerate Trump that they act like this a good thing.
November 23, 2025 at 2:18 AM
The last few hours have proven 2 terrible things. First, the US and Russian governments are so close that the US government takes large parts of Russian proposals and passes them off as their own, and second that some people are so desperate to exonerate Trump that they act like this a good thing.
What we might be learning tonight. JD Vance is on the inside with lots of influence over Trump policy towards Russia/Ukraine, while Rubio is kept in the dark.
Vance, btw, might be the most pro Russian/anti Ukraine person in the administration (other than Trump perhaps)
Vance, btw, might be the most pro Russian/anti Ukraine person in the administration (other than Trump perhaps)
November 23, 2025 at 3:49 AM
What we might be learning tonight. JD Vance is on the inside with lots of influence over Trump policy towards Russia/Ukraine, while Rubio is kept in the dark.
Vance, btw, might be the most pro Russian/anti Ukraine person in the administration (other than Trump perhaps)
Vance, btw, might be the most pro Russian/anti Ukraine person in the administration (other than Trump perhaps)
The last few hours have proven 2 terrible things. First, the US and Russian governments are so close that the US government takes large parts of Russian proposals and passes them off as their own, and second that some people are so desperate to exonerate Trump that they act like this a good thing.
November 23, 2025 at 2:18 AM
The last few hours have proven 2 terrible things. First, the US and Russian governments are so close that the US government takes large parts of Russian proposals and passes them off as their own, and second that some people are so desperate to exonerate Trump that they act like this a good thing.
Just a reminder that its now been two days since the Trump administration pledged to bring in the tough new secondary sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Russian oil and what have we seen---that would be nothing.
November 22, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Just a reminder that its now been two days since the Trump administration pledged to bring in the tough new secondary sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Russian oil and what have we seen---that would be nothing.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Thune and the Senate Rs got played badly here.
Hi All, just sent out this (mostly free). The Long Con of the Trump administration came to an end yesterday, as it was always going to do. We are back in the Oval Office with Trump and Vance ambushing Zelensky. The whole pivot to Ukraine was a sham to help Putin. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Long Con Comes To An End
The Trump Administration Takes Off The Mask (Again)
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Thune and the Senate Rs got played badly here.
Hi All, just sent out this (mostly free). The Long Con of the Trump administration came to an end yesterday, as it was always going to do. We are back in the Oval Office with Trump and Vance ambushing Zelensky. The whole pivot to Ukraine was a sham to help Putin. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Long Con Comes To An End
The Trump Administration Takes Off The Mask (Again)
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Hi All, just sent out this (mostly free). The Long Con of the Trump administration came to an end yesterday, as it was always going to do. We are back in the Oval Office with Trump and Vance ambushing Zelensky. The whole pivot to Ukraine was a sham to help Putin. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Btw, I do hope people understand what they have seen today. It was a well-planned and deliberate ambush of Ukraine by Trump, to force the Ukrainians to bend the knee to Putin's dictatorship. It was not slip-shod, rushed, impulsive or an accident. It was prepared malice.
November 22, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Btw, I do hope people understand what they have seen today. It was a well-planned and deliberate ambush of Ukraine by Trump, to force the Ukrainians to bend the knee to Putin's dictatorship. It was not slip-shod, rushed, impulsive or an accident. It was prepared malice.
Changing tack here. I was in Boston today and went to the matinee at @BostonSymphony . I saw one of the future superstars of classical music, a last minute conductor replacement who had never handled the BSO before named Anna Handler.
November 22, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Changing tack here. I was in Boston today and went to the matinee at @BostonSymphony . I saw one of the future superstars of classical music, a last minute conductor replacement who had never handled the BSO before named Anna Handler.
Trump is pushing Ukraine to commit strategic suicide by Thanksgiving.
November 21, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Trump is pushing Ukraine to commit strategic suicide by Thanksgiving.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
I already have a counterproposal:
Russia pulls forces/proxies out of Ukraine—all of it—and removes offensive weapons from regions bordering Ukraine.
Pays for all war damage—and reconstruction.
All Russians engaged in war crimes stand trial.
And Ukraine can join any alliance it damn well pleases.
Russia pulls forces/proxies out of Ukraine—all of it—and removes offensive weapons from regions bordering Ukraine.
Pays for all war damage—and reconstruction.
All Russians engaged in war crimes stand trial.
And Ukraine can join any alliance it damn well pleases.
November 21, 2025 at 9:06 PM
I already have a counterproposal:
Russia pulls forces/proxies out of Ukraine—all of it—and removes offensive weapons from regions bordering Ukraine.
Pays for all war damage—and reconstruction.
All Russians engaged in war crimes stand trial.
And Ukraine can join any alliance it damn well pleases.
Russia pulls forces/proxies out of Ukraine—all of it—and removes offensive weapons from regions bordering Ukraine.
Pays for all war damage—and reconstruction.
All Russians engaged in war crimes stand trial.
And Ukraine can join any alliance it damn well pleases.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
It’s very surprising that some people are still calling the Trump peace plan the Witkoff plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. The White House has come out and claimed the plan for its own and said it wants it implemented. www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...
Trump’s 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction | CNN Politics
A new Trump administration plan for the end of the war in Ukraine would see Kyiv cede territory to Russia, US “de facto” recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory forcibly seized by the Krem...
www.cnn.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
Latest piece out in @theatlantic.com . Trump's "peace" plan for Ukraine, which he at this very moment trying to force on the country with threats and intimidation, is grotesque. The US president is admitting what too many refused to admit, he wants Putin to win. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump’s Devastating Plan for Ukraine
The White House is giving Putin permission to try again.
www.theatlantic.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Latest piece out in @theatlantic.com . Trump's "peace" plan for Ukraine, which he at this very moment trying to force on the country with threats and intimidation, is grotesque. The US president is admitting what too many refused to admit, he wants Putin to win. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
When voices in the media were saying that that the Trump deal was something cooked up by an inept freelancing Witkoff, this source spoke the truth. This is now what this source is saying about about the Trump deal.
“Trump is deadly serious in his plan to force this terrible deal on Ukraine”
Ugh
“Trump is deadly serious in his plan to force this terrible deal on Ukraine”
Ugh
Was just talking with a senior, trusted, Republican source. They said “Trump trusts Witkoff fully and Witkoff would not have agreed this deal without Trump’s support.”
So can we please stop pretending this is Witkoff freelancing. It’s Trump, always Trump.
So can we please stop pretending this is Witkoff freelancing. It’s Trump, always Trump.
November 21, 2025 at 3:42 PM
When voices in the media were saying that that the Trump deal was something cooked up by an inept freelancing Witkoff, this source spoke the truth. This is now what this source is saying about about the Trump deal.
“Trump is deadly serious in his plan to force this terrible deal on Ukraine”
Ugh
“Trump is deadly serious in his plan to force this terrible deal on Ukraine”
Ugh
It’s very surprising that some people are still calling the Trump peace plan the Witkoff plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. The White House has come out and claimed the plan for its own and said it wants it implemented. www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...
Trump’s 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction | CNN Politics
A new Trump administration plan for the end of the war in Ukraine would see Kyiv cede territory to Russia, US “de facto” recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory forcibly seized by the Krem...
www.cnn.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:04 PM
It’s very surprising that some people are still calling the Trump peace plan the Witkoff plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. The White House has come out and claimed the plan for its own and said it wants it implemented. www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...
Fabulous and timely new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared. She not only discusses Trump's latest "peace" plan for Ukraine and Russia (a nothingburger in her eyes) she delves into European military mobility. It’s all free. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
On "Peace Plans" and Military (Im)Mobility in Europe
In this week’s Europe Dispatch, Minna Ålander discusses persisting lack of military mobility in Europe and likely yet another nothingburger, served by Trump.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Fabulous and timely new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared. She not only discusses Trump's latest "peace" plan for Ukraine and Russia (a nothingburger in her eyes) she delves into European military mobility. It’s all free. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Excellent thread. Ukraine gets little out of these 28 points except the possibility of EU membership (still subject to Hungarian veto?); Putin gets plenty, inc a favourable starting point for next assault on Ukraine & return of all but $100 billion of immobilised Russian assets, plus US investment.
Here is Trump's full 28 point plan for Ukraine. It would destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state and leave it helpless to face a Russian attack in the future. It would also give Putin full vindication and immunity from prosecution.
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
The full plan was obtained by Axios and verified by Ukrainian and U.S. officials.
www.axios.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Excellent thread. Ukraine gets little out of these 28 points except the possibility of EU membership (still subject to Hungarian veto?); Putin gets plenty, inc a favourable starting point for next assault on Ukraine & return of all but $100 billion of immobilised Russian assets, plus US investment.
Reposted by Phillips OBrien
Putin hasn’t given up trying to use Trump to seize the parts of Ukraine he can’t take militarily. It reeks of Russian desperation. Pokrovsk is less than 50 km from where Putin launched his invasion in 2022. Put that in perspective after 1.1 million Russian casualties.
Here is Trump's full 28 point plan for Ukraine. It would destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state and leave it helpless to face a Russian attack in the future. It would also give Putin full vindication and immunity from prosecution.
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
www.axios.com/2025/11/20/t...
Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
The full plan was obtained by Axios and verified by Ukrainian and U.S. officials.
www.axios.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:08 AM
Putin hasn’t given up trying to use Trump to seize the parts of Ukraine he can’t take militarily. It reeks of Russian desperation. Pokrovsk is less than 50 km from where Putin launched his invasion in 2022. Put that in perspective after 1.1 million Russian casualties.