Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
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Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
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November 25, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
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Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
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November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
This is wild.
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
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Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
This is wild.
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
November 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
Oh crap. There was a BA.3.2 in California last week.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
November 19, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Oh crap. There was a BA.3.2 in California last week.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
Guess what we're hunting for.
November 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Guess what we're hunting for.
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
Can you take a quarter cup of composite sewage, simply ask ‘what’s in there?’, and find out all of the pathogens circulating in that community?
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
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www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
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www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Untargeted longitudinal ultra deep metagenomic sequencing of wastewater provides a comprehensive readout of expected and unexpected viral pathogens
Wastewater surveillance has become a powerful tool to monitor circulating viruses at a community level. Currently, most wastewater surveillance efforts use target-based approaches such as quantitative...
www.medrxiv.org
October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Can you take a quarter cup of composite sewage, simply ask ‘what’s in there?’, and find out all of the pathogens circulating in that community?
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Help me out, I’ve got another wastewater virus mystery.
This one really blows my mind.
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This one really blows my mind.
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October 24, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Help me out, I’ve got another wastewater virus mystery.
This one really blows my mind.
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This one really blows my mind.
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Warning, we've had more measles detections from wastewater in the last month than in the last 2 years combined.
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
DOH MONITORING FIRST WASTEWATER DETECTION OF MEASLES IN KAUAʻI COUNTY
HONOLULU — The Hawaiʻi Department of Health (DOH) is monitoring a positive wastewater sample for measles virus, the first wastewater detection of the virus for Kauaʻi County. The sample was collected ...
https://health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroom/doh-monitoring-first-wastewater-detection-of-measles-in-kauaʻi-county/
October 23, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Warning, we've had more measles detections from wastewater in the last month than in the last 2 years combined.
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
It looks like Coeur d’Alene, ID cryptic is gone for now, but it has still managed to answer a lot of lingering questions for me about SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and what to expect next.
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
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Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
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October 17, 2025 at 9:21 PM
It looks like Coeur d’Alene, ID cryptic is gone for now, but it has still managed to answer a lot of lingering questions for me about SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and what to expect next.
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
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Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
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Cryptic update.
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
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GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
October 17, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Cryptic update.
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
If XFG drives the extinction of JN.1* we will have our first reset in 2 years. While XFG isn't that different than JN.1*, the reset provides a useful tool.
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October 13, 2025 at 8:14 PM
If XFG drives the extinction of JN.1* we will have our first reset in 2 years. While XFG isn't that different than JN.1*, the reset provides a useful tool.
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We added a couple more sites to our dashboard this week.
We now have a weekly readout on the viruses being shed by domestic cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys, and about 10 million people.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
We now have a weekly readout on the viruses being shed by domestic cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys, and about 10 million people.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
October 12, 2025 at 9:22 PM
We added a couple more sites to our dashboard this week.
We now have a weekly readout on the viruses being shed by domestic cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys, and about 10 million people.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
We now have a weekly readout on the viruses being shed by domestic cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys, and about 10 million people.
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
Cryptic lineage update. It looks like the Coeur d’Alene cryptic is gone for now. It was a BQ.1.1, so at least a 2.5 year infection.
Did the person move away? Get better? Something worse? We’ll probably never know.
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Did the person move away? Get better? Something worse? We’ll probably never know.
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October 9, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Cryptic lineage update. It looks like the Coeur d’Alene cryptic is gone for now. It was a BQ.1.1, so at least a 2.5 year infection.
Did the person move away? Get better? Something worse? We’ll probably never know.
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Did the person move away? Get better? Something worse? We’ll probably never know.
1/
I just updated our cryptic lineage dashboard if anyone is interested.
Viewer warning: this site contains a ton of actual data that really long persistent COVID infections are still occurring.
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Viewer warning: this site contains a ton of actual data that really long persistent COVID infections are still occurring.
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
SARS-CoV-2 Cryptic Lineage Visualizations
dholab.github.io
October 3, 2025 at 9:51 PM
I just updated our cryptic lineage dashboard if anyone is interested.
Viewer warning: this site contains a ton of actual data that really long persistent COVID infections are still occurring.
1/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Viewer warning: this site contains a ton of actual data that really long persistent COVID infections are still occurring.
1/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Had a nice visit to San Francisco this week, and I actually got to meet @jbloomlab.bsky.social in person.
Nothing happened while I was gone did it?
gladstone.org/events/viral...
Nothing happened while I was gone did it?
gladstone.org/events/viral...
Viral Landscapes: How to Comprehensively Monitor Evolutionary Trajectories
Virus-host interactions shape the evolutionary landscape of viruses and lead to the emergence of...
gladstone.org
September 26, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Had a nice visit to San Francisco this week, and I actually got to meet @jbloomlab.bsky.social in person.
Nothing happened while I was gone did it?
gladstone.org/events/viral...
Nothing happened while I was gone did it?
gladstone.org/events/viral...
We finally launched our cryptic lineage dashboard.
It isn’t perfect, but ya gotta start somewhere.
Here’s a brief tutorial.
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lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
It isn’t perfect, but ya gotta start somewhere.
Here’s a brief tutorial.
1/
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
September 19, 2025 at 9:26 PM
We finally launched our cryptic lineage dashboard.
It isn’t perfect, but ya gotta start somewhere.
Here’s a brief tutorial.
1/
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
It isn’t perfect, but ya gotta start somewhere.
Here’s a brief tutorial.
1/
lungfish-science.github.io/wastewater-d...
Coeur d'Alene, ID continues to have by far the highest SC2 levels among the 192 wastewater SCAN sites.
Guess where it is coming from?
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Guess where it is coming from?
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September 18, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Coeur d'Alene, ID continues to have by far the highest SC2 levels among the 192 wastewater SCAN sites.
Guess where it is coming from?
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Guess where it is coming from?
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I was wondering whether D68 would surge again this year. Apparently the answer is yes.
Last year it didn't peak until Early October, so it's probably still going up.
I know there have been a lot of respiratory virus infections in Columbia, I'll bet that's what it is.
Last year it didn't peak until Early October, so it's probably still going up.
I know there have been a lot of respiratory virus infections in Columbia, I'll bet that's what it is.
September 15, 2025 at 9:16 PM
I was wondering whether D68 would surge again this year. Apparently the answer is yes.
Last year it didn't peak until Early October, so it's probably still going up.
I know there have been a lot of respiratory virus infections in Columbia, I'll bet that's what it is.
Last year it didn't peak until Early October, so it's probably still going up.
I know there have been a lot of respiratory virus infections in Columbia, I'll bet that's what it is.
Some cryptic lineages like to play peak-a-boo with me. Here’s one example:
One of our screens is looking for a distinct XBB signature in spike [22200A+22317T]
That signature showed up in Boone, NC in Oct of 2024, and then again last week.
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One of our screens is looking for a distinct XBB signature in spike [22200A+22317T]
That signature showed up in Boone, NC in Oct of 2024, and then again last week.
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September 15, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Some cryptic lineages like to play peak-a-boo with me. Here’s one example:
One of our screens is looking for a distinct XBB signature in spike [22200A+22317T]
That signature showed up in Boone, NC in Oct of 2024, and then again last week.
1/
One of our screens is looking for a distinct XBB signature in spike [22200A+22317T]
That signature showed up in Boone, NC in Oct of 2024, and then again last week.
1/
This is overdue. XFG* is the 11th world dominant lineage, and the first to hold the title since KP.3.1.1 a year ago.
Strangely, there are still a few corners of the world (particularly China) where it is almost completely absent.
Strangely, there are still a few corners of the world (particularly China) where it is almost completely absent.
September 10, 2025 at 8:00 PM
This is overdue. XFG* is the 11th world dominant lineage, and the first to hold the title since KP.3.1.1 a year ago.
Strangely, there are still a few corners of the world (particularly China) where it is almost completely absent.
Strangely, there are still a few corners of the world (particularly China) where it is almost completely absent.
I pay attention to numbers.
Does X put the breaks on certain topics?
I posted 3 threads this weekend, each on X & bsky.
The first thread (about cryptic lineages) had 10-20 times more RTs and likes on X than here (1.1k likes total).
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bsky.app/profile/soli...
Does X put the breaks on certain topics?
I posted 3 threads this weekend, each on X & bsky.
The first thread (about cryptic lineages) had 10-20 times more RTs and likes on X than here (1.1k likes total).
1/
bsky.app/profile/soli...
I’ve found cryptic lineages from sequencing wastewater.
I’ve found cryptic lineages from screening databases.
This is the first time I’ve found a cryptic lineage from social media.
This was an interesting story.
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I’ve found cryptic lineages from screening databases.
This is the first time I’ve found a cryptic lineage from social media.
This was an interesting story.
1/
September 8, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I pay attention to numbers.
Does X put the breaks on certain topics?
I posted 3 threads this weekend, each on X & bsky.
The first thread (about cryptic lineages) had 10-20 times more RTs and likes on X than here (1.1k likes total).
1/
bsky.app/profile/soli...
Does X put the breaks on certain topics?
I posted 3 threads this weekend, each on X & bsky.
The first thread (about cryptic lineages) had 10-20 times more RTs and likes on X than here (1.1k likes total).
1/
bsky.app/profile/soli...
I was starting to believe the H5N1 outbreak from dairy cattle was winding down.
I was wrong.
I hadn’t detected H5N1 in CA wastewater in 6 months, and then 4 samples in a row came up positive. The sequences were all B3.13 (the dairy cattle lineage).
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I was wrong.
I hadn’t detected H5N1 in CA wastewater in 6 months, and then 4 samples in a row came up positive. The sequences were all B3.13 (the dairy cattle lineage).
1/
September 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
I was starting to believe the H5N1 outbreak from dairy cattle was winding down.
I was wrong.
I hadn’t detected H5N1 in CA wastewater in 6 months, and then 4 samples in a row came up positive. The sequences were all B3.13 (the dairy cattle lineage).
1/
I was wrong.
I hadn’t detected H5N1 in CA wastewater in 6 months, and then 4 samples in a row came up positive. The sequences were all B3.13 (the dairy cattle lineage).
1/