Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
BA.3.2 update. A few more patient sequences appeared, so the score is now 119 to 4.
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
February 12, 2026 at 1:03 AM
BA.3.2 update. A few more patient sequences appeared, so the score is now 119 to 4.
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
It is pretty strange that 2 cryptics that are both pre-B.1.1 and appeared over a year apart from the same sewershed. However, the sequences look completely different.
Note: NC-2 is another one that killed its FCS.
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Note: NC-2 is another one that killed its FCS.
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February 8, 2026 at 11:53 PM
It is pretty strange that 2 cryptics that are both pre-B.1.1 and appeared over a year apart from the same sewershed. However, the sequences look completely different.
Note: NC-2 is another one that killed its FCS.
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Note: NC-2 is another one that killed its FCS.
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The North Carolina variant appeared again in December, so I decided to add it to the dashboard. NC-2
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
February 8, 2026 at 11:53 PM
The North Carolina variant appeared again in December, so I decided to add it to the dashboard. NC-2
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
BA.3.2 update. We're up to 89 US wastewater detections. It's around 2% of the total now.
February 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM
BA.3.2 update. We're up to 89 US wastewater detections. It's around 2% of the total now.
I assume that everyone that talks about how awful AI is for the planet rode their bike to work today.
(chart generated by AI)
(chart generated by AI)
February 4, 2026 at 5:44 PM
I assume that everyone that talks about how awful AI is for the planet rode their bike to work today.
(chart generated by AI)
(chart generated by AI)
So far there has only been one US patient reported with BA.3.2.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
January 28, 2026 at 6:01 PM
So far there has only been one US patient reported with BA.3.2.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
Check, check, check.
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Check, check, check.
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Finally, we detected 3 penguins from KC. The same banded signal, a great penguin (King or Emperor), and a Gentoo.
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Finally, we detected 3 penguins from KC. The same banded signal, a great penguin (King or Emperor), and a Gentoo.
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It checked out though. This time it was presumably the Humboldt penguin from the Brookfield zoo.
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
It checked out though. This time it was presumably the Humboldt penguin from the Brookfield zoo.
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Second detection was from Chicago. Same sequence as in Boise.
I’m amazed this worked, Chicago has the largest treatment plant in the US, 700 million gallons/day.
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I’m amazed this worked, Chicago has the largest treatment plant in the US, 700 million gallons/day.
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Second detection was from Chicago. Same sequence as in Boise.
I’m amazed this worked, Chicago has the largest treatment plant in the US, 700 million gallons/day.
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I’m amazed this worked, Chicago has the largest treatment plant in the US, 700 million gallons/day.
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Based on the Boise zoo website, it was probably a Magellanic.
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Based on the Boise zoo website, it was probably a Magellanic.
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More zoo creatures. We’ve detected 3 different penguin species across our 12 sampling sites.
The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
More zoo creatures. We’ve detected 3 different penguin species across our 12 sampling sites.
The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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I missed this, there is a second site (Boston) where Hippos showed up in our data, but there it was pygmy hippopotamus.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
January 26, 2026 at 2:57 PM
I missed this, there is a second site (Boston) where Hippos showed up in our data, but there it was pygmy hippopotamus.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
We've made some updates to our dashboard if you want to check it out.
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
January 25, 2026 at 7:27 PM
We've made some updates to our dashboard if you want to check it out.
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Here was the B.1 defining region from the lineage 2 years ago. None of the same changes.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Here was the B.1 defining region from the lineage 2 years ago. None of the same changes.
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And the previous lineage also had 498Y. However, none of the other changes matched up.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
And the previous lineage also had 498Y. However, none of the other changes matched up.
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Here’s the weird part. The sample was from NC on 8/28/25 (last summer) from a population with 182,501(Charlotte).
This sounded familiar, so I checked our dashboard.
There WAS a cryptic from Charlotte we detected 2 years ago. It was also B.1.
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This sounded familiar, so I checked our dashboard.
There WAS a cryptic from Charlotte we detected 2 years ago. It was also B.1.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Here’s the weird part. The sample was from NC on 8/28/25 (last summer) from a population with 182,501(Charlotte).
This sounded familiar, so I checked our dashboard.
There WAS a cryptic from Charlotte we detected 2 years ago. It was also B.1.
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This sounded familiar, so I checked our dashboard.
There WAS a cryptic from Charlotte we detected 2 years ago. It was also B.1.
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The defining changes of B.1.1 were 28881A, 28882A, 28883C (which introduces a TRS).
The cryptic not only lacked those changes, but also lacked 28881T, so it wasn’t Delta.
It was circulating in early 2021 at the latest.
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The cryptic not only lacked those changes, but also lacked 28881T, so it wasn’t Delta.
It was circulating in early 2021 at the latest.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The defining changes of B.1.1 were 28881A, 28882A, 28883C (which introduces a TRS).
The cryptic not only lacked those changes, but also lacked 28881T, so it wasn’t Delta.
It was circulating in early 2021 at the latest.
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The cryptic not only lacked those changes, but also lacked 28881T, so it wasn’t Delta.
It was circulating in early 2021 at the latest.
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Next step was to ‘carbon date’ the lineage. We know it was pre-Omicron, but how old?
It was pre-B.1.1
Here’s the smoking gun.
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It was pre-B.1.1
Here’s the smoking gun.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Next step was to ‘carbon date’ the lineage. We know it was pre-Omicron, but how old?
It was pre-B.1.1
Here’s the smoking gun.
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It was pre-B.1.1
Here’s the smoking gun.
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The final screen looked for sequences cryptic specific RBD changes. [we’ve had to update this screen 8 times because circulating lineages keep ‘finding’ the cryptic mutations]
Only got a piece of the RBD, but it was fairly juicy. 498Y is almost exclusively in cryptics.
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Only got a piece of the RBD, but it was fairly juicy. 498Y is almost exclusively in cryptics.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The final screen looked for sequences cryptic specific RBD changes. [we’ve had to update this screen 8 times because circulating lineages keep ‘finding’ the cryptic mutations]
Only got a piece of the RBD, but it was fairly juicy. 498Y is almost exclusively in cryptics.
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Only got a piece of the RBD, but it was fairly juicy. 498Y is almost exclusively in cryptics.
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Again, that sequence has been gone for 3 years.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Again, that sequence has been gone for 3 years.
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The second was looking for sequences missing the deletion at the start of N.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The second was looking for sequences missing the deletion at the start of N.
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This sequence has been absent from all circulating lineages since early 2022.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
This sequence has been absent from all circulating lineages since early 2022.
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The first hit was looking for sequences missing the deletion at 11285.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The first hit was looking for sequences missing the deletion at 11285.
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This is cool, the KC zoo only has 1 or 2 hippos, but we've detected them in KC wastewater 9 times.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
January 24, 2026 at 6:09 PM
This is cool, the KC zoo only has 1 or 2 hippos, but we've detected them in KC wastewater 9 times.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.