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Philip Stafford

@staffordphilip.bsky.social

6.2K followers 230 following 510 posts

Digital Markets News editor at the Financial Times https://bsky.app/profile/financialtimes.com. Bits of markets, bits of market structure, bits of crypto or mix of all of them. If you've been spammed in your DM with a crypto scam, it's not me.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · Jan 22

Sadly I have a new impostor.
It's not me - note the double 'l' in Phillip.

If you've been contacted, pls ignore/delete the message and report them. Thanks.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 3h

Another not so stable stablecoin. Ethena briefly loses its peg in the crypto market rout in the wake of the Trump China tariffs.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 3h

I get the thinking - some inevitably know more than others, contributing to a public price makes market more efficient - but it's not one that sits well with me.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

Onshore, US derivatives markets don't have the same definition of insider trading as shares, which is seen as Bad and Wrong. Regulated derivatives accommodates informed knowledge eg a farmer's experience of crop yields when hedging with futures.
But there's more informed knowledge and there's this.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

This is on Polymarket, currently offshore, but planning to go onshore in the US.

Cas Piancey @cascoinfoundation.org · 1d

Professor of Economics at Harvard saying insider trading in prediction markets is no big deal, don’t even trip.

Jason Furman: The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.

*shows that Polymarket was able to nail down the Nobel Peace Prize winner early*

Bohumilo: This reflects well on prediction markets as a deliberative mechanism. The EMH holds.

Jason Furman: That's what I told the student, that I wasn't actually that bothered by insider trading in these markets because it helped everyone else get information more quickly and reliably which I view as their main benefit.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

Here's their recent growth trajectory; not at presidential election level but note the growth since NFL returned. Weekly sports is the driver, not irregular political events.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

June v Oct. Kalshi's valuation goes from $2bn to $5bn, a couple of days after Polymarket is valued at $8bn.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

Hello yellow metal road?

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Reposted by Philip Stafford

Scott Rose @rprose.bsky.social · 1d

SoftBank, once best known for having lots of money, is seeking a $5b margin loan (on ARM shares!) to invest in OpenAI

A generational all-in bet on AI infrastructure and we are nearing the finance equivalent of turning over couch cushions to find cash to pay for it
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

SoftBank in Talks for $5 Billion Margin Loan Backed by Arm Stock

SoftBank Group Corp. is in talks to borrow $5 billion from global banks, refilling its coffers at a time Masayoshi Son is accelerating the Japanese investment firm’s bets on artificial intelligence.

www.bloomberg.com

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

In a gold rush, sell the shovels.
Also an indicator that despite impressions, London is still a strong hub for fintech.
fortune.com/crypto/2025/...

Exclusive: Coinbase and Mastercard have both held advanced talks to buy stablecoin startup BVNK for around $2 billion | Fortune Crypto

Stablecoins have become a buzzy sector over the past year amid a red-hot IPO from the stablecoin giant Circle and recently passed legislation in Congress.

fortune.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

An unimproveable first par

The DoJ has indicted Letitia James after Trump called for legal action against the NY attorney-general who had brought a case against him.
www.ft.com/content/dc00...

NY attorney-general Letitia James indicted after pressure from Trump

Case comes after president urged Department of Justice to take legal action against top prosecutor

www.ft.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

I think they were equally knowledgeable in both topics

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 1d

"Great quarter guys!"

Via HSBC

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 2d

It is with some regret over career choices that I understand this.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 3d

I rarely have to listen to a Badenoch speech all the way through. Developing deepening respect for those who do this professionally.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 3d

Hopefully from some angles it can block out views of the Walkie Talkie
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

City of London approves plans for new Square Mile skyscraper

The new development at 130 Fenchurch Street is due to be completed in 2030.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Philip Stafford

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 3d

🫣 Profits are for wimps. Revenues are for losers. Ideas sell, not fundamentals

Over half the Nasdaq market is loss making. About 1-in-8 companies have no revenues

There are a lot more in these camps than in the past

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 4d

The old(est) US market meets the new.

NYSE owner ICE is investing up to $2bn in Polymarket, valuing the prediction site at around $8bn.

ir.theice.com/press/news-d...

ICE Announces Strategic Investment in Polymarket

ICE to Become Distributor of Polymarket Data to Institutional Investors Globally Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced a strateg...

ir.theice.com

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 4d

The article says Trilogy's Amber Road project has copper, cobalt, gallium and germanium.
On one hand, there's tariffs on Canada and then this. This isn't a normal trade war.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 4d

A 10% stake for a Canadian miner with access to rare minerals but mining likely to despoil the environment. Oh well. "It is an economic gold mine, so to speak" says Trump.

Capitalism with American characteristics
www.ft.com/content/8951...

White House says it will take 10% stake in Trilogy Metals

Shares in mining company more than double on announcement from US secretary of interior

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Philip Stafford

Jack Schickler @jackschickler.bsky.social · 5d

Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 has resigned after serving 0.55 Liz Trusses in office

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6d

Always on, always gathering data...but not definitely not intrusive or like your weird AI girlfriend.
Let's guess which side of the divide this thing is going to fall. This is Homer Simpson's car design.
www.ft.com/content/58b0...

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Reposted by Philip Stafford

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 7d

more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president

on.ft.com/4pRyTHp

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 7d

The surprise here is they haven't stipulated payment is to be made in stablecoins. Yet.

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 7d

From @theathleticfc.bsky.social: FIFA will charge both sellers and buyers a 15% fee on its official 2026 World Cup ticket resale platform, which launched on Thursday and almost immediately had some tickets listed for tens of thousands of dollars.

World Cup ticket resale madness begins as FIFA takes two 15% fees on each sale

FIFA looks set to profit heavily from the World Cup resale ticket market

nyti.ms

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 8d

To justify it all, consumers are going to have to pay handsomely for AI and I don't see enough evidence consumers are ready to pay up for a so-so product.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 8d

It's ok, says Jeff Bezos, it's the right kind of bubble.

He has a point: credit bubbles do huge amounts of damage but equity-fueled capex bubbles bring wreckage too. It's mainly to people with vast amounts of money and sky high valuations.
www.ft.com/content/8d80...

Jeff Bezos hails AI boom as ‘good’ kind of bubble

Amazon founder’s comments follow warning by Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon that ‘it’s not different this time’

www.ft.com

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