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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 1d

Had a great chat with Martin Soong at @cnbc.com about Japan's presumptive new PM Takaichi Sanae. Markets may be bracing for big shifts, but I think the changes will be far more modest. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...

Takaichi's team picks suggest she might not roll out as big a fiscal boost for Japan: Economist

Stefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics says the newly elected LDP President Takaichi has dialed back her rhetoric on big fiscal spending and tax cuts. He notes however that fiscal spending will be a posi...

www.cnbc.com

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 14d

But you're right--how to distribute those gains is a big issue. One proposal for how to deal with the BoJ's ETF holdings was to let households buy them at book value.

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 14d

That's a really fair question. My point was mainly that worries about risks to the BoJ's balance sheet were overblown (not that they would have mattered much anyway--central banks aren't in the business of making profits). Turns out diversified equity portfolios tend to gain value over time!

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

TL;DR: ETF purchases were unconventional and controversial. But in hindsight, the BoJ's ETF gamble stands out as a rare bet that actually paid off.

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

Why sell now? To signal that tighter monetary policy is on the agenda. The BoJ didn't hike this month, but ETF sales show it's edging in that direction. The pace will be glacial--a full exit will take more than a century.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

On returns, the policy was a winner. Japanese equities have surged in recent years, and the BoJ's ETF holdings are now worth about double their book value. That's trillions of yen in paper gains--compare that to other central banks that have booked large bond losses.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

In hindsight, those fears look overstated. The BoJ stuck to broad, diversified ETFs (first Nikkei 225, later TOPIX). That kept risks limited and avoided distorting corporate governance more than any other passive investor.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

Most of the BoJ's ETFs were bought under former Governor Kuroda to ease policy by lowering capital costs and boosting risk-taking. Critics worried about distortions and losses. Few other central banks ever dared to buy equities.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · 15d

About a week ago, the BoJ said it will start selling ETFs and J-REITs. Markets sold off at first but quickly calmed. ETF buying was always one of the BoJ's more contentious policies--but in hindsight, it proved surprisingly successful.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 11

events.moodys.com/mc-72248-wbn...

China Outlook: Double Trouble

China’s economy is under pressure on all fronts. At home, a deep property slump, high youth un...

events.moodys.com

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 10

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

Sticky Rice and Shaky Trade

Podcast Episode · Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped · 09/09/2025 · 1h

podcasts.apple.com

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 10

Ishiba's resignation after less than a year in office raises big questions for Japan and its economy. Many thanks to RTHK's Carolyn Wright for the interview. podcasts.apple.com/hk/podcast/s...

Stefan Angrick - What Next for Japan?

Podcast 單集 · The Close · 10/09/2025 · 9 分鐘

podcasts.apple.com

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 10

www.ft.com/content/6392...

Japan stocks hit all-time high after prime minister steps down

Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation fires starting gun on leadership race

www.ft.com

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 10

www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/a...

Japanese stocks jump as Prime Minister Ishiba set to step down

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over the weekend announced he will resign.

www.cnbc.com

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Sep 6

Fantastic piece by @urbandirt.bsky.social on how Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China's middle class. www.ft.com/content/ab9b...

How Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China’s middle class

An aspirational generation of Chinese arrivals are beginning to shape Japan’s demographic, social and perhaps even political destiny

www.ft.com

Reposted by Stefan Angrick

FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · Sep 5

Here's a chart-heavy 1500 words about FX hedging mechanics that shows "the FT is really dumbing down for its readers", according to someone in the comments.

on.ft.com/45SpYOk

When does it pay to hedge FX?

[FREE TO READ] The trade that explains (almost) everything

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Stefan Angrick

Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · Jul 20

Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.

It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).

🧵

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jul 4

"Geopolitical realities have shifted the narrative. At long last. We will now get to see how the single currency works with a more sensible, if somewhat inflationary, fiscal policy from the core of the euro for the first time." moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/german-fis... 2/2

German fiscal policy on the move

Not quite a return to reunification, but still a substantial change

moneyinsideout.substack.com

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jul 4

Sharp analysis by @generaltheorist.bsky.social @exantedata.bsky.social: "Since the euro was formed at the turn of the millennium, one constant theme has been the unnecessary tightness of German fiscal policy—and therefore shortage of reserve asset supply from the heart of the single currency." 1/2

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 23

Direct link: www.economy.com/getfile?q=6C...

www.economy.com

Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 22

Learn more here: www.economy.com/economicview... and here: www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...

Economic View

www.economy.com

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 22

Governments worldwide are leveraging subsidies to attract chipmakers to their shores. The U.S. leads in project count. But looking beyond the U.S., most new investment favours Asia. Decades of centralisation have deeply embedded a chip supply chain across the region.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 22

The U.S. stands out as a key player in both sourcing and attracting AI-related investment.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 22

That investment surge continues, even though total cross-border investment has slowed amid intensifying trade friction and fragmenting supply chains.

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Stefan Angrick @stefanangrick.bsky.social · Jun 22

The rise of large language models, which sparked the generative and agentic AI boom, has coincided with surging investment in data centres and semiconductors post-2022.

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