Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst).
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Pinned
Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
· Dec 10
Very excited to see The Wage Standard in The Next Big Idea Club's Must Read Books list!
When R2 asks you to do those robustness checks you really don't want to do, just replying "The Dow is over $50,000!" is always an option.
February 12, 2026 at 3:01 AM
When R2 asks you to do those robustness checks you really don't want to do, just replying "The Dow is over $50,000!" is always an option.
In forecasting the future of AI, it's easy to miss the main point.
Whether AI largely substitutes or complements human capabilities isn't merely a technological matter.
It's a societal choice.
Whether AI largely substitutes or complements human capabilities isn't merely a technological matter.
It's a societal choice.
February 8, 2026 at 5:44 PM
In forecasting the future of AI, it's easy to miss the main point.
Whether AI largely substitutes or complements human capabilities isn't merely a technological matter.
It's a societal choice.
Whether AI largely substitutes or complements human capabilities isn't merely a technological matter.
It's a societal choice.
Twitter/X is not real life, apparently.
February 5, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Twitter/X is not real life, apparently.
The DoorDash discourse is missing the bigger picture: restaurant meals have become more expensive than preparing food at home, and guess what? People are are eating less restaurant meals (whether takeout or going out) and preparing more food at home.
Especially poorer and younger folk.
Especially poorer and younger folk.
February 3, 2026 at 3:19 AM
The DoorDash discourse is missing the bigger picture: restaurant meals have become more expensive than preparing food at home, and guess what? People are are eating less restaurant meals (whether takeout or going out) and preparing more food at home.
Especially poorer and younger folk.
Especially poorer and younger folk.
We can learn a lot from Moltbook - by reading how people react to a simulacrum
January 31, 2026 at 1:03 PM
We can learn a lot from Moltbook - by reading how people react to a simulacrum
We will remember Alex Pretti.
We will remember Renee Good.
January 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM
We will remember Alex Pretti.
Reposted by Arin Dube
This
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 22, 2026 at 1:15 AM
This
Reposted by Arin Dube
💯 accurate description.
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 8:14 PM
💯 accurate description.
Breaking: Econometrica is now accepting "Framework of a paper" submissions
January 22, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Breaking: Econometrica is now accepting "Framework of a paper" submissions
Reposted by Arin Dube
The Lucas Cri-taco?
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM
The Lucas Cri-taco?
Reposted by Arin Dube
How markets factor in Trump came up in the Fed firing oral argument today at SCOTUS. SG pointed to lack of market reaction to Cook's firing as a reason why the impact is not so bad, but no discussion of whether market assumed courts would intervene, and so on.
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 8:05 PM
How markets factor in Trump came up in the Fed firing oral argument today at SCOTUS. SG pointed to lack of market reaction to Cook's firing as a reason why the impact is not so bad, but no discussion of whether market assumed courts would intervene, and so on.
Reposted by Arin Dube
The single best theory of the last few months
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 7:50 PM
The single best theory of the last few months
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
My 2026 market outlook: a tech bubble meets political shocks—Trump's trade and military choices—potentially triggering a 30%+ S&P drawdown.
AI will remain valuable, but current asset prices can't be reconciled with plausible earnings. Here's how I see it playing out:
🧵
AI will remain valuable, but current asset prices can't be reconciled with plausible earnings. Here's how I see it playing out:
🧵
January 21, 2026 at 3:42 AM
My 2026 market outlook: a tech bubble meets political shocks—Trump's trade and military choices—potentially triggering a 30%+ S&P drawdown.
AI will remain valuable, but current asset prices can't be reconciled with plausible earnings. Here's how I see it playing out:
🧵
AI will remain valuable, but current asset prices can't be reconciled with plausible earnings. Here's how I see it playing out:
🧵
As @eschatonblog.com used to say, another wild day at the dog track. Amazing what threatening military and economic conflict with your major trading partners and allies can do!
January 20, 2026 at 9:41 PM
As @eschatonblog.com used to say, another wild day at the dog track. Amazing what threatening military and economic conflict with your major trading partners and allies can do!
Reposted by Arin Dube
I do not like how close POTUS is getting to declaring war against Minnesotans & ordering the U.S. Army to coerce us.
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
January 20, 2026 at 12:04 AM
I do not like how close POTUS is getting to declaring war against Minnesotans & ordering the U.S. Army to coerce us.
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
This piece by Matt Bruenig is essential reading for AI skeptics on the left. You may or may not agree with the arguments, but very much worth taking seriously.
mattbruenig.com/2026/01/19/s...
mattbruenig.com/2026/01/19/s...
Some Thoughts on AI – Matt Bruenig Dot Com
mattbruenig.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:10 PM
This piece by Matt Bruenig is essential reading for AI skeptics on the left. You may or may not agree with the arguments, but very much worth taking seriously.
mattbruenig.com/2026/01/19/s...
mattbruenig.com/2026/01/19/s...
Some smart takes from Ben.
I do think it's interesting that his perspective about impact on workers is substantially mediated by presence of strong collective bargaining protection in the film industry, which are not there for most American workplaces.
I do think it's interesting that his perspective about impact on workers is substantially mediated by presence of strong collective bargaining protection in the film industry, which are not there for most American workplaces.
Insights from Ben Affleck on AI:
• AI can help write scenes but can't create full movies.
• Job loss fears are overblown because adoption of new tech is slow; it's hype for startup valuations.
• ChatGPT v5 is ~25% better but costs 4x.
• Users actually preferred v4's sycophancy for companionship.
• AI can help write scenes but can't create full movies.
• Job loss fears are overblown because adoption of new tech is slow; it's hype for startup valuations.
• ChatGPT v5 is ~25% better but costs 4x.
• Users actually preferred v4's sycophancy for companionship.
January 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Some smart takes from Ben.
I do think it's interesting that his perspective about impact on workers is substantially mediated by presence of strong collective bargaining protection in the film industry, which are not there for most American workplaces.
I do think it's interesting that his perspective about impact on workers is substantially mediated by presence of strong collective bargaining protection in the film industry, which are not there for most American workplaces.
There is very little space for trenchant political analysis at the moment.
January 19, 2026 at 10:39 PM
There is very little space for trenchant political analysis at the moment.
Honestly, tons of academics who I greatly respect don't realy understand AI including - what it does, how it's evolving, how it's affecting research.
That's bad.
That's bad.
Prof: AI is "very, very bad" at writing.
Same prof: Also I've never used it.
Come ON. I'm as worried as anyone about how to teach writing but you should at least, you know, understand what it is you are condemning. And undergrad cheating =/= the best AI can do.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/n...
Same prof: Also I've never used it.
Come ON. I'm as worried as anyone about how to teach writing but you should at least, you know, understand what it is you are condemning. And undergrad cheating =/= the best AI can do.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/n...
January 19, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Honestly, tons of academics who I greatly respect don't realy understand AI including - what it does, how it's evolving, how it's affecting research.
That's bad.
That's bad.
Nice post that highlights that while there has been a substantial reduction in wage inequality since 2019, the reduction is substantially smaller than the rise in wage inequality since the early 1980s. Perspective is important.
This is my first Substack post!
I am responding to @arindube.bsky.social's incredible work. I built an interactive tool to let readers explore the same wage series under different indexing baselines, since reasonable parameter choices can change how the pattern is interpreted.
#EconSky
I am responding to @arindube.bsky.social's incredible work. I built an interactive tool to let readers explore the same wage series under different indexing baselines, since reasonable parameter choices can change how the pattern is interpreted.
#EconSky
January 18, 2026 at 11:36 PM
Nice post that highlights that while there has been a substantial reduction in wage inequality since 2019, the reduction is substantially smaller than the rise in wage inequality since the early 1980s. Perspective is important.
Trump has become too toxic even for the German far right. www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Germany’s far right loosens its embrace of Trump
As public opinion in the country increasingly turns against the U.S. president over his threats to seize Greenland, the AfD is seeing the downside of its strong alignment with him.
www.politico.eu
January 16, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Trump has become too toxic even for the German far right. www.politico.eu/article/germ...
This is crazy. Apparently this guy was planning to do a mass shooting in Breckenridge (CO) as a way to kill liberals.
Relevant for me because my son and I were planning to be in Breck next week to ski (we changed our plans for other reasons but - chilling).
www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adve...
Relevant for me because my son and I were planning to be in Breck next week to ski (we changed our plans for other reasons but - chilling).
www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adve...
A Man Threatened to Carry Out a Mass Shooting at a Colorado Ski Resort
Cops arrested the man after he made a “credible threat” of an act of mass violence in a popular Colorado ski town
www.outsideonline.com
January 16, 2026 at 2:39 AM
This is crazy. Apparently this guy was planning to do a mass shooting in Breckenridge (CO) as a way to kill liberals.
Relevant for me because my son and I were planning to be in Breck next week to ski (we changed our plans for other reasons but - chilling).
www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adve...
Relevant for me because my son and I were planning to be in Breck next week to ski (we changed our plans for other reasons but - chilling).
www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adve...