Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst).
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
It's a statement about relative price changes.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
February 3, 2026 at 4:50 AM
It's a statement about relative price changes.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
It's a statement about relative price changes
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
February 3, 2026 at 4:49 AM
It's a statement about relative price changes
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
Restaurant meal prices have risen more than prices of food at home - so restaurant meals have become relatively more expensive.
37 year old ICU nurse shot to death in a brazen act of state terror.
January 24, 2026 at 11:25 PM
37 year old ICU nurse shot to death in a brazen act of state terror.
Fundamentally, the problem is TACO undermines itself over time.
January 21, 2026 at 8:13 PM
Fundamentally, the problem is TACO undermines itself over time.
Here’s the really bad part: over time, this dynamic breeds bigger and bigger crises.
Markets keep updating their beliefs about TACO, so it takes ever more extreme actions to convince them he might not TACO.
Buckle up.
Markets keep updating their beliefs about TACO, so it takes ever more extreme actions to convince them he might not TACO.
Buckle up.
January 21, 2026 at 7:59 PM
Here’s the really bad part: over time, this dynamic breeds bigger and bigger crises.
Markets keep updating their beliefs about TACO, so it takes ever more extreme actions to convince them he might not TACO.
Buckle up.
Markets keep updating their beliefs about TACO, so it takes ever more extreme actions to convince them he might not TACO.
Buckle up.
I really don't know what you mean, perhaps in no small part because I have never known any policy agenda to feel ever-present in any moment...
January 21, 2026 at 4:01 AM
I really don't know what you mean, perhaps in no small part because I have never known any policy agenda to feel ever-present in any moment...
That would (at least in the short term) lead to a worsening of the downturn.
Of course, none of this may happen. (I hope it doesn't!) But I see these as very plausible scenarios.
Of course, none of this may happen. (I hope it doesn't!) But I see these as very plausible scenarios.
January 21, 2026 at 3:45 AM
That would (at least in the short term) lead to a worsening of the downturn.
Of course, none of this may happen. (I hope it doesn't!) But I see these as very plausible scenarios.
Of course, none of this may happen. (I hope it doesn't!) But I see these as very plausible scenarios.
The add-on risk is macro-economic. Given the importance of AI cap-ex in holding up spending, a sharp reduction in AI asset prices will likely cause a major reduction in spending.
Our current political economy is probably tilted against providing necessary fiscal stimulus.
Our current political economy is probably tilted against providing necessary fiscal stimulus.
January 21, 2026 at 3:44 AM
The add-on risk is macro-economic. Given the importance of AI cap-ex in holding up spending, a sharp reduction in AI asset prices will likely cause a major reduction in spending.
Our current political economy is probably tilted against providing necessary fiscal stimulus.
Our current political economy is probably tilted against providing necessary fiscal stimulus.
Think 30%+ in the S&P 500 ... sometime in 2026.
I'm not in the business of forecasting asset prices (no one really is, if they're honest). But these risks feel very real.
I'm not in the business of forecasting asset prices (no one really is, if they're honest). But these risks feel very real.
January 21, 2026 at 3:44 AM
Think 30%+ in the S&P 500 ... sometime in 2026.
I'm not in the business of forecasting asset prices (no one really is, if they're honest). But these risks feel very real.
I'm not in the business of forecasting asset prices (no one really is, if they're honest). But these risks feel very real.
Right now, the most likely source of that kind of shock (and not unrelated to tech valuation) is political economy: Trump's trade and military choices.
Layer that on top of possibly finding weaker-than-expected AI earnings, and you can get to a major drawdown.
Layer that on top of possibly finding weaker-than-expected AI earnings, and you can get to a major drawdown.
January 21, 2026 at 3:43 AM
Right now, the most likely source of that kind of shock (and not unrelated to tech valuation) is political economy: Trump's trade and military choices.
Layer that on top of possibly finding weaker-than-expected AI earnings, and you can get to a major drawdown.
Layer that on top of possibly finding weaker-than-expected AI earnings, and you can get to a major drawdown.