Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Even if I miss I can’t miss.
https://valuations.substack.com/
https://valuations.substack.com/
Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place.
1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
February 6, 2026 at 10:28 AM
Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place.
1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a #$MSTR flier.
a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box
ALT: a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box
media.tenor.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a #$MSTR flier.
Oh god… I think I’m a SaaS bull.
a man in a black jacket is asking who am i .
ALT: a man in a black jacket is asking who am i .
media.tenor.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Oh god… I think I’m a SaaS bull.
This makes me want to bottom fish software but then I spend an hour reading about the specific products and still have no idea what most of them even do.
February 1, 2026 at 3:29 PM
This makes me want to bottom fish software but then I spend an hour reading about the specific products and still have no idea what most of them even do.
🎵Hello darkness my old friend🎵
January 31, 2026 at 5:34 PM
🎵Hello darkness my old friend🎵
"Dan Ives is an analyst - and a whole lot more."
Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...
"Should You Trust Him?"
Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...
"Should You Trust Him?"
January 31, 2026 at 12:16 PM
"Dan Ives is an analyst - and a whole lot more."
Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...
"Should You Trust Him?"
Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...
"Should You Trust Him?"
NGL. the chance to short Tesla, SpaceX and MechaHitler all under one wrapper sounds like a dream come true.
January 30, 2026 at 4:48 PM
NGL. the chance to short Tesla, SpaceX and MechaHitler all under one wrapper sounds like a dream come true.
20 years from now, I’d be surprised if there’s still one Tesla on the road. They’ll be like the vintage Volkswagen beetles that only eccentrics and collectors own.
January 29, 2026 at 11:11 AM
20 years from now, I’d be surprised if there’s still one Tesla on the road. They’ll be like the vintage Volkswagen beetles that only eccentrics and collectors own.
There were so many “I’m writing in Mitt Romney” finance guys in 2024 who made false equivalencies about how bad both candidates were and I’m more disillusioned by them than the MAGA cult.
Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?
Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?
January 29, 2026 at 10:51 AM
There were so many “I’m writing in Mitt Romney” finance guys in 2024 who made false equivalencies about how bad both candidates were and I’m more disillusioned by them than the MAGA cult.
Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?
Fulton county raided and these assholes couldn’t tell who was the worse candidate after Jan 6th?
MAGA thinks Democrats opened borders and set up sanctuary cities, to inflate votes, so they send an untrained clown force to LARP Call of Duty, who then kill two US citizens and shit on the constitution so badly a blue wave in midterms nearly guaranteed?
That about cover it?
That about cover it?
January 28, 2026 at 3:04 PM
MAGA thinks Democrats opened borders and set up sanctuary cities, to inflate votes, so they send an untrained clown force to LARP Call of Duty, who then kill two US citizens and shit on the constitution so badly a blue wave in midterms nearly guaranteed?
That about cover it?
That about cover it?
“…an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue”
We all know what #$RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange
We all know what #$RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange
January 28, 2026 at 11:10 AM
“…an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue”
We all know what #$RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange
We all know what #$RGC is. There’s no reason this should be listed on a US exchange
Debasement trade, de-dollarization, and sell US / buy EM takes are all going to age like milk.
January 27, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Debasement trade, de-dollarization, and sell US / buy EM takes are all going to age like milk.
No ill will toward gold bugs, but they were right for the wrong reasons. Schiff et al were screaming about QE induced inflation a decade plus before it happened and it required a global catastrophe + supply chain shocks + absurd amounts of fiscal stimulus to make it happen.
January 27, 2026 at 3:57 PM
No ill will toward gold bugs, but they were right for the wrong reasons. Schiff et al were screaming about QE induced inflation a decade plus before it happened and it required a global catastrophe + supply chain shocks + absurd amounts of fiscal stimulus to make it happen.
Interesting feedback loop w/ Trump 2.0 surrounded only by toadies and sycophants who feed his worst inclinations vs the John Kelly’s of his first term who reined him in.
I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now
I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now
January 25, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Interesting feedback loop w/ Trump 2.0 surrounded only by toadies and sycophants who feed his worst inclinations vs the John Kelly’s of his first term who reined him in.
I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now
I used to think Trump had a nose for politically unpopular decisions. I’m not sure he’s even aware how badly they’re crashing now
It’s time to stop pointing out all the hypocrisy in the Republican Party. They simply do not care and pointing it out will not make them care.
Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.
Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.
January 24, 2026 at 9:27 PM
It’s time to stop pointing out all the hypocrisy in the Republican Party. They simply do not care and pointing it out will not make them care.
Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.
Energy is better spent trying to make Democrats better. They’ve been extremely pathetic. There’s a leadership vacuum that got us here in need of repair.
They’ve been told they have full immunity and nearly unlimited funds. Is it going to get better or worse?
January 24, 2026 at 4:31 PM
They’ve been told they have full immunity and nearly unlimited funds. Is it going to get better or worse?
Will try to get a #$BAH Q3 update posted next week. TBH, I’m surprised by the reaction.
-Funded backlog fell 10%
-Civil revenue -28%
-Big EPS beat driven by tax credits/ lower effective tax rate (creates a headwind in FY27)
-Funded backlog fell 10%
-Civil revenue -28%
-Big EPS beat driven by tax credits/ lower effective tax rate (creates a headwind in FY27)
January 23, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Will try to get a #$BAH Q3 update posted next week. TBH, I’m surprised by the reaction.
-Funded backlog fell 10%
-Civil revenue -28%
-Big EPS beat driven by tax credits/ lower effective tax rate (creates a headwind in FY27)
-Funded backlog fell 10%
-Civil revenue -28%
-Big EPS beat driven by tax credits/ lower effective tax rate (creates a headwind in FY27)
I don’t like talking shit without cause but there’s one lionized FinTwit account who’s considered a seasoned pro, always confidently giving advice out like he’s everyone’s dad and his returns are straight garbage.
January 22, 2026 at 10:50 AM
I don’t like talking shit without cause but there’s one lionized FinTwit account who’s considered a seasoned pro, always confidently giving advice out like he’s everyone’s dad and his returns are straight garbage.
Maybe just muscle memory but I feel like RUT and high short interest basket are going to get washed in Feb. high short basket massively outperforming ytd and still most well below the Oct peaks.
January 20, 2026 at 5:06 PM
Maybe just muscle memory but I feel like RUT and high short interest basket are going to get washed in Feb. high short basket massively outperforming ytd and still most well below the Oct peaks.
Biggest (long-term) risk to Mag 7 isn’t valuation, it’s the inevitable end point of rising populism borne out of wealth inequality is a president who runs on trust-busting the shit out of big tech.
And tbh, they’d probably have my vote. YouTube and social media all need heavy regulation.
And tbh, they’d probably have my vote. YouTube and social media all need heavy regulation.
January 16, 2026 at 2:34 PM
Biggest (long-term) risk to Mag 7 isn’t valuation, it’s the inevitable end point of rising populism borne out of wealth inequality is a president who runs on trust-busting the shit out of big tech.
And tbh, they’d probably have my vote. YouTube and social media all need heavy regulation.
And tbh, they’d probably have my vote. YouTube and social media all need heavy regulation.