Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Even if I miss I can’t miss.
https://valuations.substack.com/
https://valuations.substack.com/
I’m happy to see it but funny thing about Tim Apple’s buy bumping the stock 5% is Cook was on the board throughout the entire downfall. Rubber stamped all the bad decisions. But hey, I’ll take it.
Seems someone has been reading your posts @valuations.bsky.social
Apple CEO Tim Cook Buys $3 Million of Nike Shares
December 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM
I’m happy to see it but funny thing about Tim Apple’s buy bumping the stock 5% is Cook was on the board throughout the entire downfall. Rubber stamped all the bad decisions. But hey, I’ll take it.
S&P peaked on Dec 29th 2021. VIX is currently sub 14 with market and margin debt at all time highs. I know fiscal will be pumping in ‘26 but this feels complacent.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
December 23, 2025 at 11:08 PM
S&P peaked on Dec 29th 2021. VIX is currently sub 14 with market and margin debt at all time highs. I know fiscal will be pumping in ‘26 but this feels complacent.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
As a $META long I truly do not want to know how the IG algorithm-sausage is made. Probably the stuff of nightmares.
December 19, 2025 at 6:11 PM
As a $META long I truly do not want to know how the IG algorithm-sausage is made. Probably the stuff of nightmares.
$RKLB and $ASTS might be the dumbest stocks in the entire market. Giving me flashbacks to Virgin Galactic. Let’s see if I can retire or die trying shorting these dogs.
December 19, 2025 at 4:35 PM
$RKLB and $ASTS might be the dumbest stocks in the entire market. Giving me flashbacks to Virgin Galactic. Let’s see if I can retire or die trying shorting these dogs.
VIX getting bodied by end of year lull. Probably not a bad time to hedge. Can’t get too beared up into Q1 with front loaded stimmy from the OBBB but I don’t think 2026 will be a cake walk.
December 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
VIX getting bodied by end of year lull. Probably not a bad time to hedge. Can’t get too beared up into Q1 with front loaded stimmy from the OBBB but I don’t think 2026 will be a cake walk.
$LW the latest victim of taking too much price, sell side over-extrapolating fw estimates only to get undercut by private label and see pricing power evaporate.
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
December 19, 2025 at 3:26 PM
$LW the latest victim of taking too much price, sell side over-extrapolating fw estimates only to get undercut by private label and see pricing power evaporate.
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
I’m long a lot of $NKE. I think the -ve reaction is overdone and the market does not have the patience to sit and wait for the full recovery which provides an attractive opportunity for those who do. Full thoughts on Q2 here.
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
NIKE Q2 FY26 – Middle Innings
You can find my first Nike write up here. Last night, Nike reported Q2 FY26 earnings.
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:05 AM
I’m long a lot of $NKE. I think the -ve reaction is overdone and the market does not have the patience to sit and wait for the full recovery which provides an attractive opportunity for those who do. Full thoughts on Q2 here.
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
Imagine buying $MSOS just a little over a year ago and someone tells you when rescheduling happens you’ll be down ~20% on your basis.
Oof.
Oof.
December 18, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Imagine buying $MSOS just a little over a year ago and someone tells you when rescheduling happens you’ll be down ~20% on your basis.
Oof.
Oof.
The Oct sell off in high beta shitcos, bitcoin, AI trade, and $TSLA, made it plain that there is layers on layers of leverage driving all of them at once. TSLA has been the best pure risk on vehicle since 2020.
One has to admit that whatever is going on here, there is something truly astonishing about it
December 17, 2025 at 9:48 AM
The Oct sell off in high beta shitcos, bitcoin, AI trade, and $TSLA, made it plain that there is layers on layers of leverage driving all of them at once. TSLA has been the best pure risk on vehicle since 2020.
Everyone loves to brag about their wins. Nobody likes to highlight their bad calls.
In honor of tax loss season, I wrote up my $JACK Post-Mortem. A lesson in thesis creep and bad models. An all-around terrible call.
Enjoy,
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
In honor of tax loss season, I wrote up my $JACK Post-Mortem. A lesson in thesis creep and bad models. An all-around terrible call.
Enjoy,
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
Jack in the Box (JACK) Post-Mortem
A Lesson in Broken Models
open.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Everyone loves to brag about their wins. Nobody likes to highlight their bad calls.
In honor of tax loss season, I wrote up my $JACK Post-Mortem. A lesson in thesis creep and bad models. An all-around terrible call.
Enjoy,
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
In honor of tax loss season, I wrote up my $JACK Post-Mortem. A lesson in thesis creep and bad models. An all-around terrible call.
Enjoy,
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
Just had the horrible realization that Trump is going to stimulate the shit out of the lower end consumer ahead of midterms and a large portion of that is going to flow straight into the most garbage stocks and alt coins on planet earth.
November 7, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Just had the horrible realization that Trump is going to stimulate the shit out of the lower end consumer ahead of midterms and a large portion of that is going to flow straight into the most garbage stocks and alt coins on planet earth.
Spirits baggies complaining about multiple rerating from 30x to high teens. Pointing at the 5% divy like it’s a no brainer. Should be asking why it was trading at 30x in the first place.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
November 7, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Spirits baggies complaining about multiple rerating from 30x to high teens. Pointing at the 5% divy like it’s a no brainer. Should be asking why it was trading at 30x in the first place.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
45 product candidates in $REGN ’s pipeline but it’s still priced like Eylea and Dupixent are the entire company and every incremental dollar invested will get torched.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
October 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
45 product candidates in $REGN ’s pipeline but it’s still priced like Eylea and Dupixent are the entire company and every incremental dollar invested will get torched.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.
January 8, 2025 at 11:17 AM
AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.
The water is warm.
December 23, 2024 at 3:10 PM
The water is warm.
Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.
December 22, 2024 at 1:31 PM
Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.
A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.
I see a bunch of people arguing that inflation was transitory, and I don't know of a single person who in 2021 argued that 2.8% core PCE inflation at the end of 2024 would meet any definition of transitory.
December 20, 2024 at 4:00 PM
A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.
Beginning of the end for the bromance.
On CNN tonight, former Rep Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) is referring to “President Elon” and “Vice President Trump”
December 19, 2024 at 1:48 AM
Beginning of the end for the bromance.
Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂
Nothing like price to change sentiment.
December 17, 2024 at 11:39 PM
Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂
Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.
Question: what the fuck??
Question: what the fuck??
December 17, 2024 at 5:25 PM
Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.
Question: what the fuck??
Question: what the fuck??
I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside.
(The market usually goes up).
(The market usually goes up).
CANNACORD: “.. Back-to-back gains of 20% or more, although
rare, have historically led to further upside. The soft-landing environment of 1995 began
a period of four consecutive years when the SPX gained over 20% each year.”
rare, have historically led to further upside. The soft-landing environment of 1995 began
a period of four consecutive years when the SPX gained over 20% each year.”
December 12, 2024 at 12:11 PM
I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside.
(The market usually goes up).
(The market usually goes up).
They say nobody rings a bell at the top. And yet…
December 11, 2024 at 7:27 PM
They say nobody rings a bell at the top. And yet…
MDLZ takeover rumor not part of my HSY long thesis, I’m skeptical it will happen and cocoa prices still ripping higher so I sold the news. Better to be lucky than good.
As someone who likes to dunk on sell side, I have to admit after going back and reading notes on $HSY from 1H JPM did good work. That said, I think it works as a long here at $170.
December 9, 2024 at 3:35 PM
MDLZ takeover rumor not part of my HSY long thesis, I’m skeptical it will happen and cocoa prices still ripping higher so I sold the news. Better to be lucky than good.
I often think about how the most impactful course I took in college was taught by a professor who used an overhead projector instead of PowerPoint slides because he thought the slides were too distracting from the lectures.
UCLA is creating an entirely AI-generated course. Except apparently the grading won't be AI-generated. 🤔
newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/comp...
newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/comp...
Comparative lit class will be first in Humanities Division to use UCLA-developed AI system
The textbook for Zrinka Stahuljak’s winter 2025 course is generated by the Kudu platform.
newsroom.ucla.edu
December 8, 2024 at 7:38 PM
I often think about how the most impactful course I took in college was taught by a professor who used an overhead projector instead of PowerPoint slides because he thought the slides were too distracting from the lectures.