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Vilgot Huhn

@vilgothuhn.bsky.social

260 followers 540 following 610 posts

Confused PhD student in psychology at Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm. GAD, ICBT, mechanisms of change. Organizing the ReproducibiliTea JC at KI. Website: https://vilgot-huhn.github.io/mywebsite/ Personal blog at unconfusion.substack.com

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Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 10h

spuriouser and spuriouser

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 10h

Still better design that catholicism which you can just cheese at the final level if you use deathbed confession

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 10h

Yeah tbh people said it would be hard but as long as you apply effortless effort (basically don’t attack and dodge all the time) it’s gg. Heard people talk striving would be incompatible with winning and only lead to more suffering but imo they just need to git gud at zen.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 20h

Here’s the idea in words:
A regression with two predictors is a plane through a cube. If we look at the cube from the top and x1 and x2 are strongly correlated we’ll see almost a percent line. Since that’s basically a line the plane would be free to wibble-wobble on that ”axis”.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 20h

So I thought of a visualization on the train for how multicolinearity works (maybe) but now I don’t have any computer access do make it/check it and I have clinical work all day. Pain.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 2d

Saw someone call the best model notation:

yᵢ ~ N(μᵢ, σ²)
μᵢ = a + bxᵢ

”Bayesian model notation” and there sure isn’t anything Bayesian about it (other than culturally)

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 2d

The dream of the 2010s is alive in Portland 🎶

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

my new rule is that you’re not allowed to be interested in meta-science unless you’re also interested in science sorry.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

that is a very clear answer i have no further questions

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

they are also in sweden. took me like twenty minutes on their buggy app to get the damn drop-box to open for me.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

he's already worn a purple suit in wonka what more do you want?

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

In this context I think the problem is that even if you can explain the logic behind why "this is a Cohen's d" it's not necessarily comparable to other estimates that other call "a Cohen's d". The other problem is that it's often unclear in papers, at least to me, what has been done.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

For me this was just a casual exploration that I hoped to discuss with colleagues. I had seen it done but I hadn't come across anyone who recommended it or why. The idea sort of makes sense to me, but so does other ideas, and the numbers differ quite a bit.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

Here's how I thought about it at the time:
"One is trying to chose a SD to divide by and man isn't the residual kind of an SD? I mean the residual of an intercept only model (some call it an "empty model") is the same thing as the standard deviation around a mean."

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 3d

I’ve seen it done a couple of times for model estimated within-group effect size, which in simulated data tended to give Big Number. Did a talk about this stuff on a (small casual) conference last year.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

True true.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

It probably is. 😫

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

Uncharitable speculation but maybe someone once easily in his AI doomer days pointed out that this was what he was doing and he started workshopping arguments to preempt the criticism, thinking of the term along the way. ” I know what you’re gonna say but this is not that!”

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

I was surprised to learn that ”Pascal’s Mugging” as an expression was coined by Yudkowsky because I always thought of it as a good counter to his whole thing.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

There’s this one post-rationalist right-winger on twitter that launders the attack on science as legitimate because of the replication crisis and somehow this guy was living rent free in my head for years before I even came across his content.

Reposted by Vilgot Huhn

Hank Green @hankgreen.bsky.social · 5d

Really, truly amazing that OpenAI wants us to believe that they are worth a trillion dollars but also they are so desperate for revenue that they created an infinite SlopTok app that opens them up to a billion lawsuits just so that they can maybe someday make it even worse by filling it with ads.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

Welcome to Stockholm 😁 we have a lot of coffee places to go broke at I think (never tried Drop Roasters though)

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 4d

>explain
>jreg video
I am not terminally online enough for this task. Not even close.

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 5d

I live! Suck it Icarus!

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 5d

Had a wonderful time at the #esrii conference in Vilnius!
I will now fly in an aeroplane in the sky, much like Icarus, the dead guy, pray for me 🙏

Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 5d

Had a wonderful time at the #esrii conference in Vilnius!
I will now fly in an aeroplane in the sky, much like Icarus, the dead guy, pray for me 🙏