Ryan Briggs
@ryancbriggs.net
Raising kids & bread & grant money. Cleaning data & diapers & fish. EA (bed nets, not light cone). Social scientist. typos. twitter.com/ryancbriggs
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
Causal inference nuts: Radiolab has a great podcast this week about the pitfalls of using correlational evidence in policymaking.
The empirical case is the self-esteem movement of the 1980s.
Would be a good listen for those who teach causal inference.
The empirical case is the self-esteem movement of the 1980s.
Would be a good listen for those who teach causal inference.
January 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Causal inference nuts: Radiolab has a great podcast this week about the pitfalls of using correlational evidence in policymaking.
The empirical case is the self-esteem movement of the 1980s.
Would be a good listen for those who teach causal inference.
The empirical case is the self-esteem movement of the 1980s.
Would be a good listen for those who teach causal inference.
Crazy snowstorm means throwing the kids outside with cookie rewards
January 25, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Crazy snowstorm means throwing the kids outside with cookie rewards
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
We're hard at work on new AI tools for RStudio that will support EDA and we hope generally accelerate data science. If you're interested in trying them out, join the private beta waitlist for a sneak peek: posit.co/products/ai/ #rstats
Interested in using AI in RStudio? Let us know.
We’re working hard to bring more AI capabilities to RStudio. If you’re interested in learning more about what’s coming, including early access to help test new capabilities, join our waitlist.
https://posit.co/products/ai/"
January 21, 2026 at 4:52 PM
We're hard at work on new AI tools for RStudio that will support EDA and we hope generally accelerate data science. If you're interested in trying them out, join the private beta waitlist for a sneak peek: posit.co/products/ai/ #rstats
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
blog post: Total Margin of Error
margin of error = 2 x (reported margin of error)
and how much of this error is "bias" vs "variance" ?
margin of error = 2 x (reported margin of error)
and how much of this error is "bias" vs "variance" ?
January 21, 2026 at 4:36 PM
blog post: Total Margin of Error
margin of error = 2 x (reported margin of error)
and how much of this error is "bias" vs "variance" ?
margin of error = 2 x (reported margin of error)
and how much of this error is "bias" vs "variance" ?
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
NEW PAPER! We know that lead exposure is bad, but where is it all coming from?
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
January 21, 2026 at 10:49 AM
NEW PAPER! We know that lead exposure is bad, but where is it all coming from?
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
Waterloo: snow day
Wilfred Laurier: snow day
McMaster: snow day
Guelph:
Wilfred Laurier: snow day
McMaster: snow day
Guelph:
a close up of a cartoon character from the movie frozen saying `` the cold never bothered me anyway '' .
Alt: a close up of a cartoon character from the movie frozen saying `` the cold never bothered me anyway '' .
media.tenor.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Waterloo: snow day
Wilfred Laurier: snow day
McMaster: snow day
Guelph:
Wilfred Laurier: snow day
McMaster: snow day
Guelph:
On Feb 16 I have a spare evening around the SF to Palo Alto area. Where should I eat?
January 15, 2026 at 1:37 AM
On Feb 16 I have a spare evening around the SF to Palo Alto area. Where should I eat?
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us
what happens when AI automates "normal science"?
open.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:38 PM
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
100%
I have an erg in my house. in the time it would take to get to the gym, park, and set stuff in the locker room, I've finished a modest workout and watched an episode of a show. thus, I can exercise every day with less friction and barriers.
January 7, 2026 at 5:57 PM
100%
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
Working with big spatial data sets in #rstats? You should try {duckspatial}. The dev version of #duckspatial (soon on CRAN) uses #duckdb to perform super fast and memory efficient spatial operations cidree.github.io/duckspatial/...
In a benchmark against, {sf}....
In a benchmark against, {sf}....
December 30, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Working with big spatial data sets in #rstats? You should try {duckspatial}. The dev version of #duckspatial (soon on CRAN) uses #duckdb to perform super fast and memory efficient spatial operations cidree.github.io/duckspatial/...
In a benchmark against, {sf}....
In a benchmark against, {sf}....
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
Some news: we're committing $175m to @GiveWell in 2026, growing our >$1B committed to date.
Based on GiveWell’s estimates, we think this funding has saved >100,000 lives so far. 🧵
coefficientgiving.org/research/al...
Based on GiveWell’s estimates, we think this funding has saved >100,000 lives so far. 🧵
coefficientgiving.org/research/al...
Allocating $175M to GiveWell’s Recommendations for 2026 | Coefficient Giving
This post lays out why we've chosen to renew our support for GiveWell’s recommendations; we think it's an outstanding resource and we’re proud to support the organizations it has identified.
coefficientgiving.org
December 18, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Some news: we're committing $175m to @GiveWell in 2026, growing our >$1B committed to date.
Based on GiveWell’s estimates, we think this funding has saved >100,000 lives so far. 🧵
coefficientgiving.org/research/al...
Based on GiveWell’s estimates, we think this funding has saved >100,000 lives so far. 🧵
coefficientgiving.org/research/al...
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
My latest: Contrary to popular perception, American antisemitism is not primarily a partisan problem—it is a generational one. "The research collectively suggests that America is becoming more anti-Semitic because its young people are becoming more anti-Semitic." Gift link:
‘The More I’m Around Young People, the More Panicked I Am’
Anti-Jewish prejudice isn’t a partisan divide—it’s a generational one.
www.theatlantic.com
December 15, 2025 at 9:26 PM
My latest: Contrary to popular perception, American antisemitism is not primarily a partisan problem—it is a generational one. "The research collectively suggests that America is becoming more anti-Semitic because its young people are becoming more anti-Semitic." Gift link:
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
I can’t get past this. The (imperfect) analogy in my head comes from living in Rio: you’re always in a state of soft alert, which becomes a permanent background noise to life, bc you know that, even if low probability, very bad things could happen at any moment, and you must know how to respond.
I promise if you’re not Jewish and don’t know any Jews quite well you really do not understand the level of justified paranoia baked into most public Jewish gatherings: Security at swimming lessons at the JCC, off duty police outside a bar mitzvah as a favour, etc. It shocked me.
Synagogues were safe until they weren’t. JCC were safe until they weren’t. Public beaches, public parks…risk is something I think about every single time I take my family to school, pray, exist as Jews
December 14, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I can’t get past this. The (imperfect) analogy in my head comes from living in Rio: you’re always in a state of soft alert, which becomes a permanent background noise to life, bc you know that, even if low probability, very bad things could happen at any moment, and you must know how to respond.
I promise if you’re not Jewish and don’t know any Jews quite well you really do not understand the level of justified paranoia baked into most public Jewish gatherings: Security at swimming lessons at the JCC, off duty police outside a bar mitzvah as a favour, etc. It shocked me.
Synagogues were safe until they weren’t. JCC were safe until they weren’t. Public beaches, public parks…risk is something I think about every single time I take my family to school, pray, exist as Jews
My kids woke up so excited this morning for the first night of Hannukah and now yet again we have a festival where I’m very conflicted about whether it’s safe to take them to synagogue to celebrate. Communities shouldn’t have to live like this.
December 14, 2025 at 4:33 PM
I promise if you’re not Jewish and don’t know any Jews quite well you really do not understand the level of justified paranoia baked into most public Jewish gatherings: Security at swimming lessons at the JCC, off duty police outside a bar mitzvah as a favour, etc. It shocked me.
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
Synagogues were safe until they weren’t. JCC were safe until they weren’t. Public beaches, public parks…risk is something I think about every single time I take my family to school, pray, exist as Jews
My kids woke up so excited this morning for the first night of Hannukah and now yet again we have a festival where I’m very conflicted about whether it’s safe to take them to synagogue to celebrate. Communities shouldn’t have to live like this.
December 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Synagogues were safe until they weren’t. JCC were safe until they weren’t. Public beaches, public parks…risk is something I think about every single time I take my family to school, pray, exist as Jews
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
Again, even though the Japanese government leading up to 1945 committed terrible atrocities, none of us think that Japanese internment was caused by the Japanese government. It was caused by American racism.
December 14, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Again, even though the Japanese government leading up to 1945 committed terrible atrocities, none of us think that Japanese internment was caused by the Japanese government. It was caused by American racism.
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
2 weeks ago, 4 blocks from my synagogue local police had a shootout with a man holed up in his house with an AK47. It took multiple armored vehicles to breach the house and I could hear the shooting and concussion grenades. The man had a nazi flag and other material in his house.
December 14, 2025 at 2:21 PM
2 weeks ago, 4 blocks from my synagogue local police had a shootout with a man holed up in his house with an AK47. It took multiple armored vehicles to breach the house and I could hear the shooting and concussion grenades. The man had a nazi flag and other material in his house.
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
The chabad rabbi killed at Bondi Beach
December 14, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The chabad rabbi killed at Bondi Beach
Antisemitism has obviously been getting worse for years. People in my social group tend to downplay it in various ways and those with power like the mayor of my city have mostly ignored it.
December 14, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Antisemitism has obviously been getting worse for years. People in my social group tend to downplay it in various ways and those with power like the mayor of my city have mostly ignored it.
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
It’s Boulevardier season!
A three-ingredient, perfectly cozy, gorgeously-hued cocktail that's become my absolute favorite. It's a cousin to the Negroni, but it uses bourbon or rye instead of gin. The result is more mellow and 100% perfect for right now.
smittenkitchen.com/2018/01/boul...
smittenkitchen.com/2018/01/boul...
December 7, 2025 at 11:13 PM
It’s Boulevardier season!
Reposted by Ryan Briggs
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
🧵
🧵
December 2, 2025 at 11:46 PM
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
🧵
🧵
7/ Survey experiments surge and now account for roughly 45% of all design-based studies. Lab experiments decline sharply after 2016, while field experiments and most quasi-experimental designs grow slowly from a very low base
December 3, 2025 at 1:29 PM
preparing some slightly deranged slides for last class
November 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
preparing some slightly deranged slides for last class
A student recently asked me for academic job market advice and I pulled up a slideshow from a few years ago. I don't think I've shared it, but it might be broadly useful. I think the advice almost entirely holds up.
First part is about my time on the job market
1/3
First part is about my time on the job market
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
A student recently asked me for academic job market advice and I pulled up a slideshow from a few years ago. I don't think I've shared it, but it might be broadly useful. I think the advice almost entirely holds up.
First part is about my time on the job market
1/3
First part is about my time on the job market
1/3
So then the researchers divided the academics into two groups, the Eagles and the Rattlers <sorry> Twitter and Bluesky, and then
November 21, 2025 at 1:23 PM
So then the researchers divided the academics into two groups, the Eagles and the Rattlers <sorry> Twitter and Bluesky, and then