Lee Crawfurd
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development
https://www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd
https://www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Only 10 cases of Guinea worm disease were recorded *globally* last year.
It may become the second human disease we eradicate, after smallpox.
It may become the second human disease we eradicate, after smallpox.
February 4, 2026 at 11:38 AM
Only 10 cases of Guinea worm disease were recorded *globally* last year.
It may become the second human disease we eradicate, after smallpox.
It may become the second human disease we eradicate, after smallpox.
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
📣 Call for Papers – 3rd Development Economics Workshop (DEW 2026)
📍 Durham University Business School, UK | 🗓 9–10 June 2026
🎤 Keynote: Prof. Oded Galor (founder of Unified Growth Theory and author of the Journey of Humanity)
#DevelopmentEconomics #CallForPapers #AcademicConference
📍 Durham University Business School, UK | 🗓 9–10 June 2026
🎤 Keynote: Prof. Oded Galor (founder of Unified Growth Theory and author of the Journey of Humanity)
#DevelopmentEconomics #CallForPapers #AcademicConference
tinyurl.com
February 3, 2026 at 11:41 AM
📣 Call for Papers – 3rd Development Economics Workshop (DEW 2026)
📍 Durham University Business School, UK | 🗓 9–10 June 2026
🎤 Keynote: Prof. Oded Galor (founder of Unified Growth Theory and author of the Journey of Humanity)
#DevelopmentEconomics #CallForPapers #AcademicConference
📍 Durham University Business School, UK | 🗓 9–10 June 2026
🎤 Keynote: Prof. Oded Galor (founder of Unified Growth Theory and author of the Journey of Humanity)
#DevelopmentEconomics #CallForPapers #AcademicConference
My guess is these numbers are inflated, but even so seems likely millions could die.
(Inflated because these projections
- are based on cross-country correlations, with small sample sizes & endogeneity concerns
- don't account for policy response by aid recipient governments)
(Inflated because these projections
- are based on cross-country correlations, with small sample sizes & endogeneity concerns
- don't account for policy response by aid recipient governments)
"Under severe defunding, about 22.6 million more deaths were forecast by 2030, including 5.4 million among under-fives. Mild defunding would mean 9.4 million excess deaths, of which 2.5 million would be young children."
These deaths are avoidable!
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
These deaths are avoidable!
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Aid cuts could cause 22m avoidable deaths by 2030, study finds
Modelling suggests 5.4m children under five among those who could die if budgets of donor countries such as UK and US continue to be slashed
www.theguardian.com
February 4, 2026 at 9:33 AM
My guess is these numbers are inflated, but even so seems likely millions could die.
(Inflated because these projections
- are based on cross-country correlations, with small sample sizes & endogeneity concerns
- don't account for policy response by aid recipient governments)
(Inflated because these projections
- are based on cross-country correlations, with small sample sizes & endogeneity concerns
- don't account for policy response by aid recipient governments)
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
The UK government is thinking about dismantling the Independent Commission for Aid Impact. Why? Do they actually want their aid to help fewer people? @leecrawfurd.bsky.social & Andrew Mitchell make the case for saving the ICAI: www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
Don’t Scrap the UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact, Make It Better
Last month the UK development minister discussed in parliament the possibility that she might scrap the “Independent Commission for Aid Impact”. While critics have accused her of simply trying to avoi...
www.cgdev.org
February 3, 2026 at 8:25 PM
The UK government is thinking about dismantling the Independent Commission for Aid Impact. Why? Do they actually want their aid to help fewer people? @leecrawfurd.bsky.social & Andrew Mitchell make the case for saving the ICAI: www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
We know lead poisoning impacts children's cognition, schooling, and more. But what about other core development priorities?
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social and @eeshani.bsky.social take a look at the underobserved interaction between lead and child nutrition:
https://go.cgdev.org/45DyaRV
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social and @eeshani.bsky.social take a look at the underobserved interaction between lead and child nutrition:
https://go.cgdev.org/45DyaRV
Is Lead Poisoning a Missing Link in the Fight Against Malnutrition?
Lead exposure is increasingly recognized as a major global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Much of the research and policy attention to date has focused on it...
go.cgdev.org
February 3, 2026 at 3:52 PM
We know lead poisoning impacts children's cognition, schooling, and more. But what about other core development priorities?
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social and @eeshani.bsky.social take a look at the underobserved interaction between lead and child nutrition:
https://go.cgdev.org/45DyaRV
@leecrawfurd.bsky.social and @eeshani.bsky.social take a look at the underobserved interaction between lead and child nutrition:
https://go.cgdev.org/45DyaRV
Don't scrap ICAI. Here's 5 steps to make it better instead (new
@cgdev.org blog with @ianmitchell1.bsky.social)
www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
@cgdev.org blog with @ianmitchell1.bsky.social)
www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
Don’t Scrap the UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact, Make It Better
Last month the UK development minister discussed in parliament the possibility that she might scrap the “Independent Commission for Aid Impact”. While critics have accused her of simply trying to avoi...
www.cgdev.org
February 3, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Don't scrap ICAI. Here's 5 steps to make it better instead (new
@cgdev.org blog with @ianmitchell1.bsky.social)
www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
@cgdev.org blog with @ianmitchell1.bsky.social)
www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
From the Chartists to the suffragettes, and from the civil rights movement to the anti-apartheid struggle, every great protest movement has found strength in song.
There is extraordinary power in music. More than one injustice has fallen before a hail of ballads.
There is extraordinary power in music. More than one injustice has fallen before a hail of ballads.
I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
Stay free
Stay free
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)
YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen
youtu.be
January 28, 2026 at 10:43 PM
From the Chartists to the suffragettes, and from the civil rights movement to the anti-apartheid struggle, every great protest movement has found strength in song.
There is extraordinary power in music. More than one injustice has fallen before a hail of ballads.
There is extraordinary power in music. More than one injustice has fallen before a hail of ballads.
NEW @cgdev.org BLOG with @eeshani.bsky.social - Is Lead Poisoning a Missing Link in the Fight Against Malnutrition?
www.cgdev.org/blog/lead-po...
www.cgdev.org/blog/lead-po...
January 27, 2026 at 3:52 PM
NEW @cgdev.org BLOG with @eeshani.bsky.social - Is Lead Poisoning a Missing Link in the Fight Against Malnutrition?
www.cgdev.org/blog/lead-po...
www.cgdev.org/blog/lead-po...
"half of the children interviewed under the age of 12 reported having experienced physical, emotional and sexual violence in school." new @cgdev.org research from @gsmarrelli.bsky.social in the Malawian media
www.zodiakmalawi.com/national-new...
www.zodiakmalawi.com/national-new...
Half of Learners Below 12 Experience School Related Violence
Zodiak Broadcasting Station. Zikachitika Mumvera kwa Ife. We are here to provide you with Breaking news, sport, TV and radio. To Educate, Inform and to..
www.zodiakmalawi.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:45 PM
"half of the children interviewed under the age of 12 reported having experienced physical, emotional and sexual violence in school." new @cgdev.org research from @gsmarrelli.bsky.social in the Malawian media
www.zodiakmalawi.com/national-new...
www.zodiakmalawi.com/national-new...
What share of LMIC lead poisoning is battery recycling? Maybe 33 percent.
leadbatteries.substack.com/p/what-share...
leadbatteries.substack.com/p/what-share...
What share of LMIC lead poisoning is battery recycling? Maybe 33 percent.
This is one of the biggest questions in the lead poisoning world, and a great new paper from Lee Crawfurd, James Hu, and Theodore Mitchell attempts to answer it.
leadbatteries.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 11:03 AM
What share of LMIC lead poisoning is battery recycling? Maybe 33 percent.
leadbatteries.substack.com/p/what-share...
leadbatteries.substack.com/p/what-share...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
We know the largest use of lead is in car batteries, & unsafe recycling of these batteries is harmful, but we don’t know how harmful.
A new paper from @theomitchell1.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shows that it could drive a third of all lead exposure in LMICs:
https://go.cgdev.org/49Z9wMR
A new paper from @theomitchell1.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shows that it could drive a third of all lead exposure in LMICs:
https://go.cgdev.org/49Z9wMR
Battery Recycling Is a Far Bigger Source of Lead Exposure Than We Thought
Policymakers are increasingly interested in tackling global lead exposure. One critical obstacle is that we don’t have a clear sense of what the most common sources of exposure are. The single largest...
go.cgdev.org
January 26, 2026 at 7:06 PM
We know the largest use of lead is in car batteries, & unsafe recycling of these batteries is harmful, but we don’t know how harmful.
A new paper from @theomitchell1.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shows that it could drive a third of all lead exposure in LMICs:
https://go.cgdev.org/49Z9wMR
A new paper from @theomitchell1.bsky.social & @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shows that it could drive a third of all lead exposure in LMICs:
https://go.cgdev.org/49Z9wMR
The deadline for the CGD lead conference is *THIS WEEK* - 31st Jan - send us your research and session proposals!
Call For Submissions: We're holding another lead conference at CGD, this time in London!
www.cgdev.org/blog/call-su...
www.cgdev.org/blog/call-su...
January 26, 2026 at 4:06 PM
The deadline for the CGD lead conference is *THIS WEEK* - 31st Jan - send us your research and session proposals!
Have to admire the choice of think tanks to cite in this new UK parliament briefing on UK aid for education
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...
UK aid for education
Global goals to increase access to education remain unachieved. UK bilateral aid for education fell from 2019 to 2023. Global and UK aid is expected to fall.
commonslibrary.parliament.uk
January 23, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Have to admire the choice of think tanks to cite in this new UK parliament briefing on UK aid for education
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
The New World asked me to speak to some British trans women about what life has been like for them over the past few years - here's what they had to say, in their own words: www.thenewworld.co.uk/marie-le-con...
January 21, 2026 at 9:38 AM
The New World asked me to speak to some British trans women about what life has been like for them over the past few years - here's what they had to say, in their own words: www.thenewworld.co.uk/marie-le-con...
Labour is losing more voters to the Greens than to Reform
🧵/ How would Britain vote at the start of 2026: Our new study of 17,000 Britons breaks down current voting intention by factors such as age, socio-economic classification, past vote, and more...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
January 22, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Labour is losing more voters to the Greens than to Reform
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Main finding: Armed conflict between organized actors increased by 15% in high-aid countries during the first 3 months after the shutdown. Violence against civilians perpetrated by militias increased by up to 10% a bit later. No substantial changes in protests or riots.
[4/7]
[4/7]
January 21, 2026 at 5:07 AM
Main finding: Armed conflict between organized actors increased by 15% in high-aid countries during the first 3 months after the shutdown. Violence against civilians perpetrated by militias increased by up to 10% a bit later. No substantial changes in protests or riots.
[4/7]
[4/7]
NEW PAPER! We know that lead exposure is bad, but where is it all coming from?
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
January 21, 2026 at 10:49 AM
NEW PAPER! We know that lead exposure is bad, but where is it all coming from?
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
We show that used lead-acid battery recycling is likely much more important than previously thought - perhaps 1/3 of exposure in LMICs.
LINK: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
w/ @theomitchell1.bsky.social & James Hu
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
Aid cuts in the UK signals a move from "grants to expertise"—meaning a shift to low-cost technical assistance.
Through his work with African governments, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shares examples of both good and bad models of technical assistance:
https://go.cgdev.org/45atSBo
Through his work with African governments, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shares examples of both good and bad models of technical assistance:
https://go.cgdev.org/45atSBo
How to Do Technical Assistance (Well)
Declining aid budgets are changing how major donors operate. The UK’s Minister for International Development Jenny Chapman has said that UK aid will shift “from grants to expertise” and “from service ...
www.cgdev.org
January 17, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Aid cuts in the UK signals a move from "grants to expertise"—meaning a shift to low-cost technical assistance.
Through his work with African governments, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shares examples of both good and bad models of technical assistance:
https://go.cgdev.org/45atSBo
Through his work with African governments, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shares examples of both good and bad models of technical assistance:
https://go.cgdev.org/45atSBo
UK aid cuts will mean a shift “from grants to expertise”
Here's my take on how to do that well
1. Don't limit to UK experts
2. Fund non-profits
3. Work closely with recipients.
4. Ideas & implementation support
5. Be realistic about evaluation
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-do-...
Here's my take on how to do that well
1. Don't limit to UK experts
2. Fund non-profits
3. Work closely with recipients.
4. Ideas & implementation support
5. Be realistic about evaluation
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-do-...
How to Do Technical Assistance (Well)
Declining aid budgets are changing how major donors operate. The UK’s Minister for International Development Jenny Chapman has said that UK aid will shift “from grants to expertise” and “from service ...
www.cgdev.org
January 15, 2026 at 4:12 PM
UK aid cuts will mean a shift “from grants to expertise”
Here's my take on how to do that well
1. Don't limit to UK experts
2. Fund non-profits
3. Work closely with recipients.
4. Ideas & implementation support
5. Be realistic about evaluation
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-do-...
Here's my take on how to do that well
1. Don't limit to UK experts
2. Fund non-profits
3. Work closely with recipients.
4. Ideas & implementation support
5. Be realistic about evaluation
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-do-...
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
New in Global Policy from @rorytodd98.bsky.social @leecrawfurd.bsky.social @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social @cgdev.org onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
January 15, 2026 at 12:27 AM
January 14, 2026 at 10:21 AM
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
What happens when we pay our teachers more? Evidence from New Jersey public schools www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"by five years after adoption, high school Math and ELA increase by about 0.15–0.20 and 0.12–0.17 standard deviations (SD), respectively with modest increases in Grade 4 Math"
"by five years after adoption, high school Math and ELA increase by about 0.15–0.20 and 0.12–0.17 standard deviations (SD), respectively with modest increases in Grade 4 Math"
What happens when we pay our teachers more? Evidence from New Jersey public schools
This paper examines the impact of increasing teacher salaries on student outcomes by exploiting variation from the “50K The First Day” campaign that e…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:15 PM
What happens when we pay our teachers more? Evidence from New Jersey public schools www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"by five years after adoption, high school Math and ELA increase by about 0.15–0.20 and 0.12–0.17 standard deviations (SD), respectively with modest increases in Grade 4 Math"
"by five years after adoption, high school Math and ELA increase by about 0.15–0.20 and 0.12–0.17 standard deviations (SD), respectively with modest increases in Grade 4 Math"
Reposted by Lee Crawfurd
A new paper by George Borjas—who served this past year in the Trump White House designing some of its anti-immigration policies—claims to display evidence of ideological bias among researchers who study immigration.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
🧵 Thread—>
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
🧵 Thread—>
January 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM
A new paper by George Borjas—who served this past year in the Trump White House designing some of its anti-immigration policies—claims to display evidence of ideological bias among researchers who study immigration.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
🧵 Thread—>
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
🧵 Thread—>
Telling people about effective altruism makes them more likely to donate to international causes
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
January 6, 2026 at 12:36 PM
Telling people about effective altruism makes them more likely to donate to international causes
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
World Bank projects with some kind of *innovation* component score 0.15 points (around 0.13 standard deviations) better on evaluations
blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/in...
blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/in...
January 6, 2026 at 12:17 PM
World Bank projects with some kind of *innovation* component score 0.15 points (around 0.13 standard deviations) better on evaluations
blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/in...
blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/in...