Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer, University of Vienna, Department of Government. Former minor twitter celebrity/hate figure. https://www.leonardocarella.com/
It is sad that British MPs' day-to-day job is a combination of social work and local government administration, as opposed to executive oversight and legislation. I don't know how this can be reversed, but the expectations it creates are bad for democracy, representation and political selection.
A short 🧵
This is a really good article & shows the challenge MPs face.
I received over 2,000 emails last month in our casework system; this covers 'campaign emails', personalised emails (often asking for my view on something) and people getting in touch who needing my team's support.
This is a really good article & shows the challenge MPs face.
I received over 2,000 emails last month in our casework system; this covers 'campaign emails', personalised emails (often asking for my view on something) and people getting in touch who needing my team's support.
The workload facing MPs and their staff is growing, in ways that aren't visible to the public: casework and the inbox.
For @thehousemag.bsky.social, I delved into what the workload looks like, why it's growing, and what this means for how MPs can balance the different aspects of their role
For @thehousemag.bsky.social, I delved into what the workload looks like, why it's growing, and what this means for how MPs can balance the different aspects of their role
February 18, 2026 at 10:47 AM
It is sad that British MPs' day-to-day job is a combination of social work and local government administration, as opposed to executive oversight and legislation. I don't know how this can be reversed, but the expectations it creates are bad for democracy, representation and political selection.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
This past Winter Term, I taught an introductory class in Quantitative Methods at the University of Vienna. I think it went really well, so I’m sharing the course material (including editable slides and markdown files) for anyone that might be interested. ucloud.univie.ac.at/index.php/s/...
ucloud.univie.ac.at
January 30, 2026 at 2:56 PM
This past Winter Term, I taught an introductory class in Quantitative Methods at the University of Vienna. I think it went really well, so I’m sharing the course material (including editable slides and markdown files) for anyone that might be interested. ucloud.univie.ac.at/index.php/s/...
In a way, conterfactual thinking *is* arcane. Most people - including policy-makers and many who took a causal inference course in grad school and should know better - just work backwards from the conclusion they want to reach.
It's kind of alarming the number of conversations I've had with policymakers that treat the concept of a counterfactual as something arcane and suspect, rather than an essential element of understanding the impact of their actions
February 17, 2026 at 8:32 AM
In a way, conterfactual thinking *is* arcane. Most people - including policy-makers and many who took a causal inference course in grad school and should know better - just work backwards from the conclusion they want to reach.
Some people think you just pull a lever that says “do more left-wing things” and you cash in electoral success.
Starmer’s “left wing things” (union/renter rights, railways, energy) didn’t make a dent. Being the most left-wing President since LBJ didn’t work for Biden (IRA, labor, antitrust).
Starmer’s “left wing things” (union/renter rights, railways, energy) didn’t make a dent. Being the most left-wing President since LBJ didn’t work for Biden (IRA, labor, antitrust).
February 16, 2026 at 7:06 AM
Some people think you just pull a lever that says “do more left-wing things” and you cash in electoral success.
Starmer’s “left wing things” (union/renter rights, railways, energy) didn’t make a dent. Being the most left-wing President since LBJ didn’t work for Biden (IRA, labor, antitrust).
Starmer’s “left wing things” (union/renter rights, railways, energy) didn’t make a dent. Being the most left-wing President since LBJ didn’t work for Biden (IRA, labor, antitrust).
I'm sceptical of most "AI will kill [insert job/field/method]" takes, but I'm increasingly of the view that AI will kill Stata. What's the point in paying for it when a Claude Code Max subscription costs about the same and does the same things and more in R/Python, exponentially faster and better?
February 15, 2026 at 8:55 AM
I'm sceptical of most "AI will kill [insert job/field/method]" takes, but I'm increasingly of the view that AI will kill Stata. What's the point in paying for it when a Claude Code Max subscription costs about the same and does the same things and more in R/Python, exponentially faster and better?
“Adam Smith, whose book about the market and stuff I haven’t read, also cared about sentiments in the other book, which I also haven’t read” is a great classic of op-ed waffle.
The kind of utter confusion Brooks is going to inflict on Yale undergrads.
February 15, 2026 at 4:54 AM
“Adam Smith, whose book about the market and stuff I haven’t read, also cared about sentiments in the other book, which I also haven’t read” is a great classic of op-ed waffle.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
George Osbourne cut public spending by roughly 3% in real terms.
The Govt has increased it by 4.3% at the last budget alone.
This sort of critiques are entirely vibes based and detached from reality
The Govt has increased it by 4.3% at the last budget alone.
This sort of critiques are entirely vibes based and detached from reality
Starmer is to their right, even. His politics are basically George Osborne's
February 13, 2026 at 12:21 PM
George Osbourne cut public spending by roughly 3% in real terms.
The Govt has increased it by 4.3% at the last budget alone.
This sort of critiques are entirely vibes based and detached from reality
The Govt has increased it by 4.3% at the last budget alone.
This sort of critiques are entirely vibes based and detached from reality
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Maria is lowkey the funniest song in West Side Story because he's walking around a latino Neighbourhood asking about a "Maria". Its like going to a gay village and asking if anyone has anyone has seen "Matt"
February 13, 2026 at 12:55 AM
Maria is lowkey the funniest song in West Side Story because he's walking around a latino Neighbourhood asking about a "Maria". Its like going to a gay village and asking if anyone has anyone has seen "Matt"
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
February 13, 2026 at 8:32 AM
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
My Grand Theory of Politics and Society is that 60-70% of changes in elites’, and especially conservative elites’, behaviour can be attributed to the fact that none of them genuinely believe they might be going to Hell anymore.
February 13, 2026 at 3:55 AM
My Grand Theory of Politics and Society is that 60-70% of changes in elites’, and especially conservative elites’, behaviour can be attributed to the fact that none of them genuinely believe they might be going to Hell anymore.
its-a coming home 👌
Sentences I never ever thought I would write:
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
February 12, 2026 at 1:33 PM
its-a coming home 👌
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
starting to feel like there's a direct relationship between the growing obsession with lifestyle hygeine (no drinking, no caffeine, no sex, obsessive working out and looksmaxxing) and the inability to meaningful moral stands on issues of actual import
Cafes across the U.S. are embracing the low- and no-caffeine lifestyle, with options that are a far cry from dusty tea bags and rewarmed decaf. nyti.ms/3XKlqoj
February 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
February 9, 2026 at 6:39 PM
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
February 9, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Duke shutters 3 research centers, including Dan Ariely’s Center for Advanced Hindsight
The timing comes just one week after Ariely was named hundreds of times in connection with Jeffrey Epstein in released documents. However, Duke said the two are unrelated.
dukechronicle.com
February 8, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
The Long Ukrainian Winter
How You Can Help
snyder.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
February 7, 2026 at 12:34 PM
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
February 7, 2026 at 12:35 PM
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
February 7, 2026 at 9:38 AM
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
February 6, 2026 at 1:40 PM
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
www.cambridge.org
February 6, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
🧑🤝🧑Do politicians consider the gender of leaders when selecting coalition partners?
➡️Using a conjoint on 979 Spanish mayors, @albahuidobro.bsky.social finds that mayors, especially those on the center and left, prefer coalitions with parties led by women www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️Using a conjoint on 979 Spanish mayors, @albahuidobro.bsky.social finds that mayors, especially those on the center and left, prefer coalitions with parties led by women www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
February 6, 2026 at 9:12 AM
🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 PM
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).