Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer, University of Vienna, Department of Government. Former minor twitter celebrity/hate figure. https://www.leonardocarella.com/
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
February 13, 2026 at 8:32 AM
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
My Grand Theory of Politics and Society is that 60-70% of changes in elites’, and especially conservative elites’, behaviour can be attributed to the fact that none of them genuinely believe they might be going to Hell anymore.
February 13, 2026 at 3:55 AM
My Grand Theory of Politics and Society is that 60-70% of changes in elites’, and especially conservative elites’, behaviour can be attributed to the fact that none of them genuinely believe they might be going to Hell anymore.
How is that becoming like Britain? :)
February 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM
How is that becoming like Britain? :)
We can now bowl, curl and luge, Jannik Sinner is on TV every five minutes, but we can't give North Macedonia a good old trashing.
February 12, 2026 at 1:39 PM
We can now bowl, curl and luge, Jannik Sinner is on TV every five minutes, but we can't give North Macedonia a good old trashing.
Italy is becoming like Britain: really good at a ton of sports, but increasingly bad at the one everyone really cares about.
February 12, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Italy is becoming like Britain: really good at a ton of sports, but increasingly bad at the one everyone really cares about.
its-a coming home 👌
Sentences I never ever thought I would write:
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
February 12, 2026 at 1:33 PM
its-a coming home 👌
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
starting to feel like there's a direct relationship between the growing obsession with lifestyle hygeine (no drinking, no caffeine, no sex, obsessive working out and looksmaxxing) and the inability to meaningful moral stands on issues of actual import
Cafes across the U.S. are embracing the low- and no-caffeine lifestyle, with options that are a far cry from dusty tea bags and rewarmed decaf. nyti.ms/3XKlqoj
February 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
Trot in the 70s, neocon in the aughts, resistance grandpa in the 20s.
February 9, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Trot in the 70s, neocon in the aughts, resistance grandpa in the 20s.
Basically the reputational scorecard from best to worst is: (1) neocons, (2) Mormons, (3) Main Street Caucus, (4) Blue State moderates, (5) libertarians, (6) evangelical Christian right.
February 9, 2026 at 6:46 PM
Basically the reputational scorecard from best to worst is: (1) neocons, (2) Mormons, (3) Main Street Caucus, (4) Blue State moderates, (5) libertarians, (6) evangelical Christian right.
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
February 9, 2026 at 6:39 PM
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
I have made my party allegiance quite clear. bsky.app/profile/leon...
It's therefore with great pleasure that I'm announcing that I'll be standing for the Gorton and Denton by-election as the official candidate of the It's Your Fucking Fault Party.
February 9, 2026 at 2:24 PM
I have made my party allegiance quite clear. bsky.app/profile/leon...
(I am particularly proud of the way I crafted this post because virtually anyone who is guilty of this themselves can attribute it to some reviled factional outgroup.)
February 9, 2026 at 2:04 PM
(I am particularly proud of the way I crafted this post because virtually anyone who is guilty of this themselves can attribute it to some reviled factional outgroup.)
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
February 9, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Duke shutters 3 research centers, including Dan Ariely’s Center for Advanced Hindsight
The timing comes just one week after Ariely was named hundreds of times in connection with Jeffrey Epstein in released documents. However, Duke said the two are unrelated.
dukechronicle.com
February 8, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
The Long Ukrainian Winter
How You Can Help
snyder.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
I think open list are great, as long as preferential votes are optional and one can cast a list vote (normally, these end up being 70-80% of the votes).
February 7, 2026 at 8:40 PM
I think open list are great, as long as preferential votes are optional and one can cast a list vote (normally, these end up being 70-80% of the votes).
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
February 7, 2026 at 12:34 PM
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
February 7, 2026 at 12:35 PM
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
Yeah, the goal is outsourcing the mindless data extraction and management tasks that used to make up about 60% of my workflow.
February 7, 2026 at 10:29 AM
Yeah, the goal is outsourcing the mindless data extraction and management tasks that used to make up about 60% of my workflow.
I strongly recommend my peers and competitors on the job market to stick to old-fashioned manual coding. Think of all the water you're going to save.
February 7, 2026 at 10:19 AM
I strongly recommend my peers and competitors on the job market to stick to old-fashioned manual coding. Think of all the water you're going to save.
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
February 7, 2026 at 9:38 AM
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
February 6, 2026 at 1:40 PM
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
www.cambridge.org
February 6, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
Thanks Rob for your support.
February 6, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Thanks Rob for your support.