Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer, University of Vienna, Department of Government. Former minor twitter celebrity/hate figure. https://www.leonardocarella.com/
its-a coming home 👌
Sentences I never ever thought I would write:
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
ITALY WIN BY TEN WICKETS
February 12, 2026 at 1:33 PM
its-a coming home 👌
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
starting to feel like there's a direct relationship between the growing obsession with lifestyle hygeine (no drinking, no caffeine, no sex, obsessive working out and looksmaxxing) and the inability to meaningful moral stands on issues of actual import
Cafes across the U.S. are embracing the low- and no-caffeine lifestyle, with options that are a far cry from dusty tea bags and rewarmed decaf. nyti.ms/3XKlqoj
February 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM
Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
February 9, 2026 at 6:39 PM
With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
February 9, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Duke shutters 3 research centers, including Dan Ariely’s Center for Advanced Hindsight
The timing comes just one week after Ariely was named hundreds of times in connection with Jeffrey Epstein in released documents. However, Duke said the two are unrelated.
dukechronicle.com
February 8, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
The Long Ukrainian Winter
How You Can Help
snyder.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
February 7, 2026 at 12:34 PM
I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
February 7, 2026 at 12:35 PM
The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
February 7, 2026 at 9:38 AM
I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
February 6, 2026 at 1:40 PM
I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
www.cambridge.org
February 6, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
@leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns
buff.ly/py9IYUS
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
🧑🤝🧑Do politicians consider the gender of leaders when selecting coalition partners?
➡️Using a conjoint on 979 Spanish mayors, @albahuidobro.bsky.social finds that mayors, especially those on the center and left, prefer coalitions with parties led by women www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️Using a conjoint on 979 Spanish mayors, @albahuidobro.bsky.social finds that mayors, especially those on the center and left, prefer coalitions with parties led by women www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
February 6, 2026 at 9:12 AM
🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 PM
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.
I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
February 5, 2026 at 11:16 AM
New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.
I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
This quote from a Reform UK councillor sums it up beautifully. Cross-boundary moral outrages, exported online and sold (especially, but not exclusively) to generations that grew up before the internet, are such a central feature of radicalisation today. www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/ne...
February 5, 2026 at 8:42 AM
This quote from a Reform UK councillor sums it up beautifully. Cross-boundary moral outrages, exported online and sold (especially, but not exclusively) to generations that grew up before the internet, are such a central feature of radicalisation today. www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/ne...
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Peter Mandelbrot. It’s just infinite scandals the more you zoom in.
February 4, 2026 at 8:27 PM
Peter Mandelbrot. It’s just infinite scandals the more you zoom in.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Just a quick note to @greenparty.org.uk and @greenpartyhan.bsky.social - I was not consulted on being quoted on your leaflets and I have not endorsed your campaign (or any campaign in this seat). I think this note, like the bar chart next to it, is misleading and out of context.
February 4, 2026 at 11:47 AM
Just a quick note to @greenparty.org.uk and @greenpartyhan.bsky.social - I was not consulted on being quoted on your leaflets and I have not endorsed your campaign (or any campaign in this seat). I think this note, like the bar chart next to it, is misleading and out of context.
Prevent Russia-funded radical-right parties from gaining control of Europe’s entire nuclear arsenal by 2029 with this ONE SIMPLE TRICK the fascists DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW.
(It’s PR. France and Britain should just adopt PR, like now.)
(It’s PR. France and Britain should just adopt PR, like now.)
February 4, 2026 at 10:11 AM
Prevent Russia-funded radical-right parties from gaining control of Europe’s entire nuclear arsenal by 2029 with this ONE SIMPLE TRICK the fascists DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW.
(It’s PR. France and Britain should just adopt PR, like now.)
(It’s PR. France and Britain should just adopt PR, like now.)
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
When an email makes your day.
February 3, 2026 at 11:55 AM
When an email makes your day.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Partisan polling is the canary in the coalmine of democratic backsliding (or at least, a member of the aria of canaries). Scholars and the media should be much more forceful in drawing a line between those who measure (however imperfectly) public opinion and those who try to sway it.
February 3, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Partisan polling is the canary in the coalmine of democratic backsliding (or at least, a member of the aria of canaries). Scholars and the media should be much more forceful in drawing a line between those who measure (however imperfectly) public opinion and those who try to sway it.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -
Partners in government: politicians’ gender preferences in coalition formation - https://cup.org/4bs1hva
- @albahuidobro.bsky.social
#FirstView
Partners in government: politicians’ gender preferences in coalition formation - https://cup.org/4bs1hva
- @albahuidobro.bsky.social
#FirstView
February 2, 2026 at 1:20 PM
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -
Partners in government: politicians’ gender preferences in coalition formation - https://cup.org/4bs1hva
- @albahuidobro.bsky.social
#FirstView
Partners in government: politicians’ gender preferences in coalition formation - https://cup.org/4bs1hva
- @albahuidobro.bsky.social
#FirstView
why is everyone doing research at the intersection, get out of the way you're blocking the traffic
January 31, 2026 at 10:58 AM
why is everyone doing research at the intersection, get out of the way you're blocking the traffic
This past Winter Term, I taught an introductory class in Quantitative Methods at the University of Vienna. I think it went really well, so I’m sharing the course material (including editable slides and markdown files) for anyone that might be interested. ucloud.univie.ac.at/index.php/s/...
ucloud.univie.ac.at
January 30, 2026 at 2:56 PM
This past Winter Term, I taught an introductory class in Quantitative Methods at the University of Vienna. I think it went really well, so I’m sharing the course material (including editable slides and markdown files) for anyone that might be interested. ucloud.univie.ac.at/index.php/s/...