Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
@haydonmp.bsky.social
Dad, husband, double hoo.
10+ years as a fire/medic, published neuro/stroke clinical researcher, public and foreign policy degrees. Occasional woodworking posts.
Opinions my own, especially when they're wrong. Reposts are not endorsements.
10+ years as a fire/medic, published neuro/stroke clinical researcher, public and foreign policy degrees. Occasional woodworking posts.
Opinions my own, especially when they're wrong. Reposts are not endorsements.
Pinned
I am not saying that a stroke like this is disqualifying for the office of the presidency, not at all. Neuro recovery is a remarkable and individual thing.
But like, it is very clearly what's going on here.
But like, it is very clearly what's going on here.
This thread escaped containment and I would like to use this as an opportunity to address some misconceptions about stroke as a disease and recovery thereof I noticed in the replies.
I'm going to use an example from my career where I was so glad to be so wrong about a patient's prognosis.
I'm going to use an example from my career where I was so glad to be so wrong about a patient's prognosis.
At first I thought the leak came from Rubio but now I’m thinking this came from EU sources and that’s delightful.
Any reason to think otherwise?
Any reason to think otherwise?
Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov reacted to the leaked calls with U.S. envoy Witkoff, saying “someone is leaking or eavesdropping” and accusing opponents of trying to sabotage U.S.-Russia contacts. He confirmed Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week as part of ongoing peace negotiations.
November 26, 2025 at 8:27 AM
At first I thought the leak came from Rubio but now I’m thinking this came from EU sources and that’s delightful.
Any reason to think otherwise?
Any reason to think otherwise?
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Great to see @ninawilen.bsky.social's book is now out
November 26, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Great to see @ninawilen.bsky.social's book is now out
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Just stumbled on an Instagram video of Morgan Wallen and that dude wears fucking skinny jeans with boots man come on!
Like come the fuck on!
This is the bad boy of Nashville country music?! What the fuck happened to my genre bro?
Like come the fuck on!
This is the bad boy of Nashville country music?! What the fuck happened to my genre bro?
November 26, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Just stumbled on an Instagram video of Morgan Wallen and that dude wears fucking skinny jeans with boots man come on!
Like come the fuck on!
This is the bad boy of Nashville country music?! What the fuck happened to my genre bro?
Like come the fuck on!
This is the bad boy of Nashville country music?! What the fuck happened to my genre bro?
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
So many senior MAGA figures are so careless I wouldn't be surprised if two dozen intelligence agencies have cracked their means of communication
November 25, 2025 at 8:26 PM
So many senior MAGA figures are so careless I wouldn't be surprised if two dozen intelligence agencies have cracked their means of communication
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
The ability of so many analysts, academics and commentators to convince themselves that the United States has all the cards towards Europeans or anyone else even as Trump accelerates the American ship of state towards the rocks of geopolitical reality is one of the wonders of our time.
November 25, 2025 at 10:44 PM
The ability of so many analysts, academics and commentators to convince themselves that the United States has all the cards towards Europeans or anyone else even as Trump accelerates the American ship of state towards the rocks of geopolitical reality is one of the wonders of our time.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
When I become president we will eliminate waste fraud and abuse perpetrated on the American people by the overwrought zealots who have destroyed our nation: engineers who use more than 1 type of fastener head per project.
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 AM
When I become president we will eliminate waste fraud and abuse perpetrated on the American people by the overwrought zealots who have destroyed our nation: engineers who use more than 1 type of fastener head per project.
Reprising my salt crusted prime rib and introduced my infant daughter to the concept of butter brining early.
It’s an important lesson and I hope it sticks.
It’s an important lesson and I hope it sticks.
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Reprising my salt crusted prime rib and introduced my infant daughter to the concept of butter brining early.
It’s an important lesson and I hope it sticks.
It’s an important lesson and I hope it sticks.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Congratulations to the CMS career staff for completing the negotiations for the 2027 cycle of the Medicare drug price negotiation program - the negotiated prices are now public. More later, but for now one note on attempts to compare these savings to the 2026 savings. 1/2 www.cms.gov/files/docume...
www.cms.gov
November 25, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Congratulations to the CMS career staff for completing the negotiations for the 2027 cycle of the Medicare drug price negotiation program - the negotiated prices are now public. More later, but for now one note on attempts to compare these savings to the 2026 savings. 1/2 www.cms.gov/files/docume...
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
A private call between Trump-appointed envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin advisor Yuri Ushakov was just leaked — and it shows the American envoy effectively acting as a strategist for Moscow.
NEWSFLASH: Witkoff was secretly giving Russians advice
A secret transcript reveals that the Trump envoy was helping a Putin advisor formulate a plan.
www.counteroffensive.news
November 25, 2025 at 10:48 PM
A private call between Trump-appointed envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin advisor Yuri Ushakov was just leaked — and it shows the American envoy effectively acting as a strategist for Moscow.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
The UK is a HOA with nukes.
November 25, 2025 at 10:31 PM
The UK is a HOA with nukes.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
MESA statement on the detention of Dr Abedini.
@mesa1966.bsky.social is one of the few academic organizations which has taken clear stands on important issues like the decimation of Gaza, tr*mpist attacks on academic freedom and administrative capitulation, and now this.
@mesa1966.bsky.social is one of the few academic organizations which has taken clear stands on important issues like the decimation of Gaza, tr*mpist attacks on academic freedom and administrative capitulation, and now this.
Middle East Studies Association
MESA has issued a statement expressing deep concern over the detention of Dr. Abedini, a MESA member.
mesana.org
November 25, 2025 at 3:57 PM
MESA statement on the detention of Dr Abedini.
@mesa1966.bsky.social is one of the few academic organizations which has taken clear stands on important issues like the decimation of Gaza, tr*mpist attacks on academic freedom and administrative capitulation, and now this.
@mesa1966.bsky.social is one of the few academic organizations which has taken clear stands on important issues like the decimation of Gaza, tr*mpist attacks on academic freedom and administrative capitulation, and now this.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
You can find all of the unsealed docs here: www.courtlistener.com/docket/71559...
November 25, 2025 at 3:57 PM
You can find all of the unsealed docs here: www.courtlistener.com/docket/71559...
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
👉 Our new paper uses daily mobility data to show that spatial isolation is much more common today among those living in advantaged neighborhoods than the converse.
👩🏻💻 Lots of massive data wrangling and careful assumptions about mobility data needed - but check it out here! doi.org/10.1177/0042...
👩🏻💻 Lots of massive data wrangling and careful assumptions about mobility data needed - but check it out here! doi.org/10.1177/0042...
November 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM
👉 Our new paper uses daily mobility data to show that spatial isolation is much more common today among those living in advantaged neighborhoods than the converse.
👩🏻💻 Lots of massive data wrangling and careful assumptions about mobility data needed - but check it out here! doi.org/10.1177/0042...
👩🏻💻 Lots of massive data wrangling and careful assumptions about mobility data needed - but check it out here! doi.org/10.1177/0042...
One of the kids dropped a metal water bottle on my wife’s toes and now the nails are turning black.
She’s got a doctor’s appointment this morning and I told her to ask them about it because my usual response to that is “red hot needle and lance if painful” and idk if she’s okay with that approach.
She’s got a doctor’s appointment this morning and I told her to ask them about it because my usual response to that is “red hot needle and lance if painful” and idk if she’s okay with that approach.
November 25, 2025 at 1:33 PM
One of the kids dropped a metal water bottle on my wife’s toes and now the nails are turning black.
She’s got a doctor’s appointment this morning and I told her to ask them about it because my usual response to that is “red hot needle and lance if painful” and idk if she’s okay with that approach.
She’s got a doctor’s appointment this morning and I told her to ask them about it because my usual response to that is “red hot needle and lance if painful” and idk if she’s okay with that approach.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
November 25, 1987:
Typhoon Nina peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 145 knots. The storm slammed into the Philippines, causing heavy damage to several islands and killing 979 people.
Typhoon Nina peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 145 knots. The storm slammed into the Philippines, causing heavy damage to several islands and killing 979 people.
November 25, 2025 at 1:29 PM
November 25, 1987:
Typhoon Nina peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 145 knots. The storm slammed into the Philippines, causing heavy damage to several islands and killing 979 people.
Typhoon Nina peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 145 knots. The storm slammed into the Philippines, causing heavy damage to several islands and killing 979 people.
Ah, well, nevertheless. See you in a few weeks for the same rigmarole.
Scoop @financialtimes.com: Under the US-Ukraine deal, Kyiv agreed to cap the size of its army at 800,000, according to senior officials who say they're pleased with the plan. Points left are territorial matters and security guarantees, which are TBD by Zelensky and Trump. www.ft.com/content/b0d9...
Russia signals it could reject modified US peace plan for Ukraine
Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov suggests Moscow would walk away from proposal that differs substantially from Alaska talks
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Ah, well, nevertheless. See you in a few weeks for the same rigmarole.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Last night, the crew from Northwest Harnett Vol FD conducted a hands on extrication training evolution. New members conducted door pops while others stabilized a box truck with a vehicle underneath.
November 25, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Last night, the crew from Northwest Harnett Vol FD conducted a hands on extrication training evolution. New members conducted door pops while others stabilized a box truck with a vehicle underneath.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
FFS 😡
FINLAND IS NOT RE-GAUGING ITS RAILWAYS
Just because an urbanist influencer has posted a 6 months old piece (that was anyway inaccurate) about it does not mean it is happening!
Finland *might* lay some additional standard gauge track from Sweden to Oulu
FINLAND IS NOT RE-GAUGING ITS RAILWAYS
Just because an urbanist influencer has posted a 6 months old piece (that was anyway inaccurate) about it does not mean it is happening!
Finland *might* lay some additional standard gauge track from Sweden to Oulu
November 24, 2025 at 11:41 AM
FFS 😡
FINLAND IS NOT RE-GAUGING ITS RAILWAYS
Just because an urbanist influencer has posted a 6 months old piece (that was anyway inaccurate) about it does not mean it is happening!
Finland *might* lay some additional standard gauge track from Sweden to Oulu
FINLAND IS NOT RE-GAUGING ITS RAILWAYS
Just because an urbanist influencer has posted a 6 months old piece (that was anyway inaccurate) about it does not mean it is happening!
Finland *might* lay some additional standard gauge track from Sweden to Oulu
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
The “savvy” view is usually wrong - both morally but also as analysis. Farage’s views and character are a really important part of why the polls are where they are!
All the supposedly progressive people saying 'Nigel Farage's racism doesn't matter. His fans love it'.
It matters whether the leader of the party leading all the opinion polls is an outright racist. It matters if he called black people 'wogs' and said 'gas them' to Jews. Not everything is a game
It matters whether the leader of the party leading all the opinion polls is an outright racist. It matters if he called black people 'wogs' and said 'gas them' to Jews. Not everything is a game
November 25, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The “savvy” view is usually wrong - both morally but also as analysis. Farage’s views and character are a really important part of why the polls are where they are!
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
In a time of unprecedented federal control of states, how can blue and red states aggregate their power to dissent? Out now in the Alabama Law Review, I explore three pathways for states to dissent to federal preemption: 1/
November 25, 2025 at 11:05 AM
In a time of unprecedented federal control of states, how can blue and red states aggregate their power to dissent? Out now in the Alabama Law Review, I explore three pathways for states to dissent to federal preemption: 1/
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
"[I]f history were to repeat itself and we were to return to the so-called "normalcy" of the 1920's—then it is certain that even though we shall have conquered our enemies on the battlefields abroad, we shall have yielded to the spirit of Fascism here at home."
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1944
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1944
November 25, 2025 at 10:59 AM
"[I]f history were to repeat itself and we were to return to the so-called "normalcy" of the 1920's—then it is certain that even though we shall have conquered our enemies on the battlefields abroad, we shall have yielded to the spirit of Fascism here at home."
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1944
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1944
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I found this 'Europe-Russia power balance' from IFRI really interesting on that. Shows that despite the economic imbalance Russia does have the stronger baseline on some, but certainly not all military aspects:
www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
November 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
I found this 'Europe-Russia power balance' from IFRI really interesting on that. Shows that despite the economic imbalance Russia does have the stronger baseline on some, but certainly not all military aspects:
www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
The Trump cycle on Russia-Ukraine. Some pro-Russian plan emerges. Instant commentariat renew their "Trump as Russian plant" stories. Plan is amended under EU (and US) pressure. Putin rejects it. Instant commentariat is puzzled. Rinse and repeat. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
How Rubio Tried to Bring a Pro-Russia Peace Plan to Middle Ground
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured.
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters
November 25, 2025 at 4:15 AM
It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured.
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters
But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters