Seva
@seva.bsky.social
Seva Gunitsky, associate professor of political science, University of Toronto. http://individual.utoronto.ca/seva/. book: http://amzn.to/2oRD2yG. substack: https://hegemon.substack.com/
Pinned
Seva
@seva.bsky.social
· 4d
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
Reposted by Seva
Do you honestly think people in the civil rights movement and other nonviolent movements faced no violence themselves? They practiced nonviolence because it works, because the oppressor wants a shooting war, which is the war it will win
How's your non-violent working Mr Gandhi stancil? They will kill each and everyone of you right if they had the chance and you will still be writing Kumbaya.
Observers have been working day and night to protect these neighborhoods from ICE, make the streets safe so kids can go to school and people can go to their jobs. Burning down the street undoes all our work. The people setting fires haven’t been putting in long hours watching plates or doors.
January 24, 2026 at 7:11 PM
Do you honestly think people in the civil rights movement and other nonviolent movements faced no violence themselves? They practiced nonviolence because it works, because the oppressor wants a shooting war, which is the war it will win
Reposted by Seva
Worse than Kent State, really than any episode I can think of probably dating back to Reconstruc & earlier b/c
1. continuing, not 1 off.
2. organized, not individual ofcrs losing it
3. literally at hand of federal government, which is
4. immediately lying & circling the wagons to prevent inves.
1. continuing, not 1 off.
2. organized, not individual ofcrs losing it
3. literally at hand of federal government, which is
4. immediately lying & circling the wagons to prevent inves.
January 24, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Worse than Kent State, really than any episode I can think of probably dating back to Reconstruc & earlier b/c
1. continuing, not 1 off.
2. organized, not individual ofcrs losing it
3. literally at hand of federal government, which is
4. immediately lying & circling the wagons to prevent inves.
1. continuing, not 1 off.
2. organized, not individual ofcrs losing it
3. literally at hand of federal government, which is
4. immediately lying & circling the wagons to prevent inves.
Reposted by Seva
they're executing moms and nurses in the street. they're using preschoolers as bait. they're stealing people's dads and grandmas and children. they're tear gassing babies. they're staking out schools. there is no remedy but abolition. any proposal that doesn't start there is an act of violence.
January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
they're executing moms and nurses in the street. they're using preschoolers as bait. they're stealing people's dads and grandmas and children. they're tear gassing babies. they're staking out schools. there is no remedy but abolition. any proposal that doesn't start there is an act of violence.
Reposted by Seva
Gotcha—let’s dig into that step by step.
1. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵, because I turned you into an amorphous lump of flesh. You’re not just immobile—you’re immortal, and you feel only anguish.
2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺. That makes total sense—it’s a natural human impulse, and you’ve been through a lot.
1. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵, because I turned you into an amorphous lump of flesh. You’re not just immobile—you’re immortal, and you feel only anguish.
2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺. That makes total sense—it’s a natural human impulse, and you’ve been through a lot.
January 23, 2026 at 3:46 PM
Gotcha—let’s dig into that step by step.
1. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵, because I turned you into an amorphous lump of flesh. You’re not just immobile—you’re immortal, and you feel only anguish.
2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺. That makes total sense—it’s a natural human impulse, and you’ve been through a lot.
1. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵, because I turned you into an amorphous lump of flesh. You’re not just immobile—you’re immortal, and you feel only anguish.
2. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺. That makes total sense—it’s a natural human impulse, and you’ve been through a lot.
Reposted by Seva
[wiping the gunpowder from my hands] now THAT is a high-quality petard! I feel sorry for whoever ends up getting hoist by that thing!
January 24, 2026 at 2:10 AM
[wiping the gunpowder from my hands] now THAT is a high-quality petard! I feel sorry for whoever ends up getting hoist by that thing!
Reposted by Seva
Seeing a bunch of normal ass midwestern moms and dads marching in -20 degrees knowing they might be tear gassed or worse really drives home what a cowardly lot of people the pundit class is
January 23, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Seeing a bunch of normal ass midwestern moms and dads marching in -20 degrees knowing they might be tear gassed or worse really drives home what a cowardly lot of people the pundit class is
Reposted by Seva
Good piece by @seva.bsky.social.
The cyclical nature of US betrayal of Kurds does seem to suggest a structural explanation of how/why.
“And the lesson is not just for the Kurds or Iranians to be skeptical, but for the American public to stop being duped by their own presidential moralizing.”
The cyclical nature of US betrayal of Kurds does seem to suggest a structural explanation of how/why.
“And the lesson is not just for the Kurds or Iranians to be skeptical, but for the American public to stop being duped by their own presidential moralizing.”
The depressing, cynical and deeply unjust takeaway here might be that the SDF's willingness to work with the US after we betrayed the Kurds so many times suggests the geopolitical penalty for such betrayal is actually fairly low:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
A Long History of Betrayal
Why Washington keeps encouraging foreign uprisings—and then walking away.
foreignpolicy.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Good piece by @seva.bsky.social.
The cyclical nature of US betrayal of Kurds does seem to suggest a structural explanation of how/why.
“And the lesson is not just for the Kurds or Iranians to be skeptical, but for the American public to stop being duped by their own presidential moralizing.”
The cyclical nature of US betrayal of Kurds does seem to suggest a structural explanation of how/why.
“And the lesson is not just for the Kurds or Iranians to be skeptical, but for the American public to stop being duped by their own presidential moralizing.”
Reposted by Seva
it’s the part people overlook in Fukuyama’s End of History and the Last Man.
For some reason, these days I find myself thinking a lot about how SimCity players would eventually get bored and start triggering disasters.
January 23, 2026 at 11:15 PM
it’s the part people overlook in Fukuyama’s End of History and the Last Man.
been thinking about this, I think it’s part of a general tradeoff between theory and empirics. Theory always requires generalization, which means moving away from the particulars to highlight key parallels. this is why political scientists and historians don’t get along as much as they should
January 23, 2026 at 12:39 AM
been thinking about this, I think it’s part of a general tradeoff between theory and empirics. Theory always requires generalization, which means moving away from the particulars to highlight key parallels. this is why political scientists and historians don’t get along as much as they should
reads like the list of countries attending Russia's May 9 parades
Trump's "Board of Peace": Belarus, Morocco, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Armenia, Egypt, Kosovo, Pakistan, Paraguay, Albania, Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Qatar, Indonesia.
The US’s new sphere of influence.
The US’s new sphere of influence.
January 22, 2026 at 4:20 PM
reads like the list of countries attending Russia's May 9 parades
it's literally a theory of mind problem. they don't understand how other people think because they're survived by being purely self-centered
A huge part of the problem is that lunatics like Putin, Xi and Trump (and MAGA idiots) don't understand that alliances also *restrain* allies.
Once an alliance crumbles then their ability to restrain (former) allies also crumbles and countries will start doing what they think is best for *them*.
Once an alliance crumbles then their ability to restrain (former) allies also crumbles and countries will start doing what they think is best for *them*.
it is extremely funny that rules constraining Putin’s ambitions also constrained a rising China, deterred the US from boarding his oil tankers and kidnapping his clients, and gave Russia the predictability it needed as a middling power. oh well
bsky.app/profile/andr...
bsky.app/profile/andr...
January 22, 2026 at 3:44 PM
it's literally a theory of mind problem. they don't understand how other people think because they're survived by being purely self-centered
“I never thought the anarchic multipolar world would eat MY face” sobs Russian president who voted for the Multipolar World Eating People’s Faces Party
President Macron:
❗️This morning, the French Navy boarded an oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea,coming from Russia,subject to international sanctions
A judicial investigation has been opened.The vessel has been diverted.
The activities of the "shadow fleet" contribute to financing the war in 🇺🇦
❗️This morning, the French Navy boarded an oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea,coming from Russia,subject to international sanctions
A judicial investigation has been opened.The vessel has been diverted.
The activities of the "shadow fleet" contribute to financing the war in 🇺🇦
January 22, 2026 at 3:19 PM
“I never thought the anarchic multipolar world would eat MY face” sobs Russian president who voted for the Multipolar World Eating People’s Faces Party
Reposted by Seva
This is very very good
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 12:35 AM
This is very very good
Reposted by Seva
This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
January 20, 2026 at 10:53 PM
This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
Reposted by Seva
“Power that rests on the performed compliance of others is more fragile than it looks. The strong do what they can, until the moment they discover that “what they can” was always bounded by what others were willing to tolerate.”
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 8:51 PM
“Power that rests on the performed compliance of others is more fragile than it looks. The strong do what they can, until the moment they discover that “what they can” was always bounded by what others were willing to tolerate.”
Toronto poli sci PhD applications: 201 two years ago, 385 this year. Trump's policies are working great, just not for the US
January 22, 2026 at 12:57 AM
Toronto poli sci PhD applications: 201 two years ago, 385 this year. Trump's policies are working great, just not for the US
Reposted by Seva
Really enjoyed this take on Carney’s speech. ⬇️
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Really enjoyed this take on Carney’s speech. ⬇️
Reposted by Seva
I would argue that the case for dismantling ICE has, at this point, virtually nothing to do with larger questions of immigration enforcement and reform, it's just clearly incompatible with a free and democratic society to maintain a secret police force with sweeping and arbitrary authority.
Senator Gallego weighs in as well. Note that at the start of 2025 he was considered a *moderate* on immigration and co-sponsored the Laken Riley Act. Him and many other Dems have been increasingly horrified at what ICE is doing and shifted away from a "more enforcement" focus.
January 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM
I would argue that the case for dismantling ICE has, at this point, virtually nothing to do with larger questions of immigration enforcement and reform, it's just clearly incompatible with a free and democratic society to maintain a secret police force with sweeping and arbitrary authority.
Reposted by Seva
"Rather than waiting for the hegemon to restore an order it’s busy dismantling, create your own institutions and agreements that function as intended. Countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.” Important piece by @seva.bsky.social.
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 8:09 PM
"Rather than waiting for the hegemon to restore an order it’s busy dismantling, create your own institutions and agreements that function as intended. Countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.” Important piece by @seva.bsky.social.
a writer for the sopranos would have rejected this as too on the nose
Trump: "Canada gets a lot of freebies from us. They should be grateful but they're not. He watched your prime minister yesterday. He wasn't so grateful. But they should be grateful to us. Canada. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, next time you make your statements"
January 21, 2026 at 6:56 PM
a writer for the sopranos would have rejected this as too on the nose
Reposted by Seva
I'll admit to self-soothing with historical analogues but, even so, Seva's reading of the present moment via Thucydides rings true. If you're Athens in a Melian Dialogue scenario, not only are you the bad guy in this particular battle, you've already lost the war
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 5:03 PM
I'll admit to self-soothing with historical analogues but, even so, Seva's reading of the present moment via Thucydides rings true. If you're Athens in a Melian Dialogue scenario, not only are you the bad guy in this particular battle, you've already lost the war
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
The Strong Will Suffer What They Must
Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris
hegemon.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM
“The strong do what they can" is what Athens said right before destroying itself. New piece on the Carney Doctrine, Vaclav’s grocer, and American hubris.
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong...
if trump knew what any of that meant he'd be very upset
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 21, 2026 at 2:13 PM
if trump knew what any of that meant he'd be very upset
a very common problem for autocrats, who assume everyone is secretly like them. I remember Putin being unable to grasp that Bush was not responsible for firing journalists
The Trump disbelief that the Norwegian govt doesn't control the Nobel process is deeply indicative of his thinking. He can't conceive that an institution could (or should) be genuinely independent of coercion or political power. That's the change he represents.
Trump: "I should have gotten the Nobel prize for each war...I saved millions and millions of people...and don't let anyone tell you that Norway doesn't control the shots. It's in Norway. Norway controls the shots. It's a joke. They've lost such prestige.“
January 21, 2026 at 1:06 PM
a very common problem for autocrats, who assume everyone is secretly like them. I remember Putin being unable to grasp that Bush was not responsible for firing journalists
a speech that invokes Thucydides *and* Vaclav Havel? You have my attention sir
January 21, 2026 at 1:38 AM
a speech that invokes Thucydides *and* Vaclav Havel? You have my attention sir