Seva
banner
seva.bsky.social
Seva
@seva.bsky.social
Seva Gunitsky, associate professor of political science, University of Toronto. http://individual.utoronto.ca/seva/. book: http://amzn.to/2oRD2yG. substack: https://hegemon.substack.com/
apparently not for some people!
January 23, 2026 at 2:54 AM
now who's playing semantics. If your explanation can't generate any expectations about other cases it becomes nice and unfalsifiable. but it sounds like you're more interested in being glib so that figures
January 23, 2026 at 2:51 AM
yeah to me the best stuff combines both. there's no atheoretical history anyway
January 23, 2026 at 1:27 AM
I like it
January 23, 2026 at 1:21 AM
I mean if you discard prediction and generalization what's left, post-hoc explanation? that doesn't seem satisfying to me, but maybe this is a disciplinary divide after all
January 23, 2026 at 1:20 AM
it's funny that this old debate still gets you going after all this time. one way to judge if an argument is productive is whether it correctly predicts new facts, and in that sense ganz' argument has been much more productive than the people who take offense at liberal semantics, including tooze
January 23, 2026 at 1:06 AM
whatever he knows or doesn't know, his analysis has not been helpful in this regard, unlike ganz
January 23, 2026 at 12:54 AM
in that case it's just motivated reasoning by tooze, which would make sense
January 23, 2026 at 12:50 AM
that's quite a collection
January 22, 2026 at 9:09 PM
it is extremely funny that rules constraining Putin’s ambitions also constrained a rising China, deterred the US from boarding his oil tankers and kidnapping his clients, and gave Russia the predictability it needed as a middling power. oh well
bsky.app/profile/andr...
It IS kind of funny that Russia benefited from a more rigid world order and more electric fences.

In a free-for-all, them punching above their weight can also punch them in the face.
January 22, 2026 at 3:27 PM
lucan is great. good luck with the applications
January 22, 2026 at 2:35 PM
ty
January 22, 2026 at 12:44 PM