Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
@vpkivimaki.bsky.social
Intelligence analyst by day, OSINT in academia, engineer at heart. Now: Finnish Security and Intelligence Service. Adjunct, Johns Hopkins. Past: Finnish Defence Forces, Bellingcat, Microsoft, Nokia.
Finland 1939 vs. Ukraine 2022.
Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.
Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.
November 30, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Finland 1939 vs. Ukraine 2022.
Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.
Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.
Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.
September 27, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.
New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux
'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux
www.doria.fi
August 30, 2025 at 5:53 PM
New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux
In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅
July 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅
UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”
Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025 | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine
With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years. The number of civilians killed in June ...
ukraine.ohchr.org
July 10, 2025 at 1:48 PM
UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”
Here we go.
Introduction
How we're here and what to expect.
open.substack.com
July 1, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Here we go.
I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com
OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki | Substack
Discussion, research and analysis on intelligence, with a Finnish twist. Click to read OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.
vpkivimaki.substack.com
June 30, 2025 at 8:47 PM
I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com
Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...
Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations - ICDS
The unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, nat...
icds.ee
June 28, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations:
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...
The US President's daily dose of intelligence
Donald Trump’s reported restriction of the President’s Daily Brief represents just the latest change in six decades of ebb and flow in the readership of this top secret, highly coveted document.
engelsbergideas.com
May 7, 2025 at 6:07 PM
In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations:
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...
Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.
April 30, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.
NATO chief is worried about Russian space nukes
“The development of nuclear weapons in space is a way for Russia to improve its capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte tells Welt am Sonntag.
www.politico.eu
April 12, 2025 at 12:38 PM
NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.
So the White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that's the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away
April 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets.
Here's what to know.
Here's what to know.
Another Rocky Day in Markets: Stocks and Bonds Sink
With the S&P 500 near a bear market, shares in Europe and Asia fell as China and other major U.S. trading partners confronted significantly higher tariffs. Investors also sold U.S. bonds.
www.nytimes.com
April 9, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets.
Here's what to know.
Here's what to know.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social
April 7, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social
If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.
The market shock has added new urgency to coalition negotiations between German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).
🔗 ow.ly/ohAg50VvRZT
🔗 ow.ly/ohAg50VvRZT
April 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih.
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.
16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage, according to Olek...
kyivindependent.com
April 4, 2025 at 7:51 PM
⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih.
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.
Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today:
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines
Finland prepares to leave Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines
Finland's defence spending will be increased to three percent of GDP by 2029 and much of that money will go towards upgrading Finnish Army equipment.
yle.fi
April 1, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today:
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines
Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...
March 29, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
A few thoughts:
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance
1/2
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance
1/2
"ROK intelligence suggests if North Korea’s rate of export continues, it could affect its ability to sustain a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. In other words, North Korea is potentially compromising its own military readiness to support Russia’s needs."
A must-read on the DPRK's role in Ukraine.
A must-read on the DPRK's role in Ukraine.
ssi.armywarcollege.edu
March 27, 2025 at 7:28 PM
A few thoughts:
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance
1/2
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance
1/2
Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.
Supo: Venäjä ja Kiina ovat merkittävä kyberuhka Suomelle
Suojelupoliisi avasi ensimmäistä kertaa Suomeen kohdistuvia kyberuhkia.
yle.fi
March 24, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...
Playing for Time: What the Kremlin Wants in New Talks with the U.S. on Ukraine - The Moscow Times
As high-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia arrive in Saudi Arabia for the second round of bilateral talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s envoys will have one goal on their mind: ...
www.themoscowtimes.com
March 23, 2025 at 3:37 PM
In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa
Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa
suomenkuvalehti.fi
March 22, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
Oleg Gordievsky has died
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Former KGB double agent Oleg Gordievsky dies at Surrey home
Counter-terrorism police are assisting the coroner, but his death is not being treated as suspicious.
www.bbc.com
March 21, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Oleg Gordievsky has died
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki
I’m old enough to remember that the US used to be more than just one global partner among others.
From the EU white paper on defence:
www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...
From the EU white paper on defence:
www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...
March 19, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I’m old enough to remember that the US used to be more than just one global partner among others.
From the EU white paper on defence:
www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...
From the EU white paper on defence:
www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...