@webberweather.bsky.social
Gov't meteorologist. UNCC & NCSU Alum. Specializes in Climate Dynamics & S2S variability. Opinions are my own & not a reflection of my employer.
webberweather.com
webberweather.com
The GEFS and Euro AIFS ensembles trying to give me some hope for snow in early December.
Surely, this must be a trap.
Surely, this must be a trap.
November 23, 2025 at 8:25 PM
The GEFS and Euro AIFS ensembles trying to give me some hope for snow in early December.
Surely, this must be a trap.
Surely, this must be a trap.
The low-level westerly wind burst in the pacific is what’s really driving the MJO into the Western Hemisphere (phase 8) in Dec (left)
That to me is a very telling of how hard the atmosphere is pushing the ocean away from La Niña & possibly towards an El Niño state this coming spring or summer
That to me is a very telling of how hard the atmosphere is pushing the ocean away from La Niña & possibly towards an El Niño state this coming spring or summer
November 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The low-level westerly wind burst in the pacific is what’s really driving the MJO into the Western Hemisphere (phase 8) in Dec (left)
That to me is a very telling of how hard the atmosphere is pushing the ocean away from La Niña & possibly towards an El Niño state this coming spring or summer
That to me is a very telling of how hard the atmosphere is pushing the ocean away from La Niña & possibly towards an El Niño state this coming spring or summer
The warmest water on the entire planet is sitting ~160E in the Equatorial Pacific & a prolonged Westerly Wind Burst event is about to occur here
This will trigger a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that should destroy La Niña ~3 months from now & begin moving the ocean towards El Niño conditions
This will trigger a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that should destroy La Niña ~3 months from now & begin moving the ocean towards El Niño conditions
November 19, 2025 at 12:59 PM
The warmest water on the entire planet is sitting ~160E in the Equatorial Pacific & a prolonged Westerly Wind Burst event is about to occur here
This will trigger a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that should destroy La Niña ~3 months from now & begin moving the ocean towards El Niño conditions
This will trigger a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that should destroy La Niña ~3 months from now & begin moving the ocean towards El Niño conditions
We might be in a La Niña at the moment, but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño-like with a huge build-up of deep-layer westerly wind anomalies
In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪
In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪
November 18, 2025 at 11:34 PM
We might be in a La Niña at the moment, but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño-like with a huge build-up of deep-layer westerly wind anomalies
In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪
In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪
For all my S2S junkies out there, here’s another invaluable tool to add to your arsenal:
An annual archive of polar cap geopotential height anomalies going back to 1940 using ERA-5 & a 30-year sliding climatology
👀
hebweather.net/prod/gph_arc...
An annual archive of polar cap geopotential height anomalies going back to 1940 using ERA-5 & a 30-year sliding climatology
👀
hebweather.net/prod/gph_arc...
November 18, 2025 at 11:03 PM
For all my S2S junkies out there, here’s another invaluable tool to add to your arsenal:
An annual archive of polar cap geopotential height anomalies going back to 1940 using ERA-5 & a 30-year sliding climatology
👀
hebweather.net/prod/gph_arc...
An annual archive of polar cap geopotential height anomalies going back to 1940 using ERA-5 & a 30-year sliding climatology
👀
hebweather.net/prod/gph_arc...
Cool study came out earlier this yr looking at the dynamical origins of the extreme 2023 Heatwave in the Desert SW
They concluded that the warm Tropical Atlantic was the primary culprit
The partial regression analysis (left) & AGCM forcing (right) are pretty telling
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
They concluded that the warm Tropical Atlantic was the primary culprit
The partial regression analysis (left) & AGCM forcing (right) are pretty telling
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 17, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Cool study came out earlier this yr looking at the dynamical origins of the extreme 2023 Heatwave in the Desert SW
They concluded that the warm Tropical Atlantic was the primary culprit
The partial regression analysis (left) & AGCM forcing (right) are pretty telling
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
They concluded that the warm Tropical Atlantic was the primary culprit
The partial regression analysis (left) & AGCM forcing (right) are pretty telling
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I still can’t get over how similar this year’s zonal wind anomalies in the tropics are to 1981
November 16, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I still can’t get over how similar this year’s zonal wind anomalies in the tropics are to 1981
Quietly while La Niña persists, the tropical upper troposphere is becoming very El Niño-like
A large build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropics is being supplanted by a West Pac MJO orbit & repeated bouts of positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) fluxing/squeezing +U equatorward
A large build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropics is being supplanted by a West Pac MJO orbit & repeated bouts of positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) fluxing/squeezing +U equatorward
November 11, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Quietly while La Niña persists, the tropical upper troposphere is becoming very El Niño-like
A large build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropics is being supplanted by a West Pac MJO orbit & repeated bouts of positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) fluxing/squeezing +U equatorward
A large build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropics is being supplanted by a West Pac MJO orbit & repeated bouts of positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) fluxing/squeezing +U equatorward
The global tropics zonal wind anomalies this year are evolving very similarly to late 1981, which of course preceded a “Super” El Niño event in 1982
Note how this yr & 1981 have a big & slow westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent in Oct-Nov that moved into the Pacific in Dec
Note how this yr & 1981 have a big & slow westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent in Oct-Nov that moved into the Pacific in Dec
November 11, 2025 at 10:07 PM
The global tropics zonal wind anomalies this year are evolving very similarly to late 1981, which of course preceded a “Super” El Niño event in 1982
Note how this yr & 1981 have a big & slow westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent in Oct-Nov that moved into the Pacific in Dec
Note how this yr & 1981 have a big & slow westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent in Oct-Nov that moved into the Pacific in Dec
As you might expect from the very strong -IOD event strengthening La Nina’s footprint globally, this October’s observed pattern has deviated very little from the last 30 years worth of La Ninas over N America
November 7, 2025 at 10:55 PM
As you might expect from the very strong -IOD event strengthening La Nina’s footprint globally, this October’s observed pattern has deviated very little from the last 30 years worth of La Ninas over N America
The latest Euro weekly forecast thru mid-December is almost exactly what you’d expect for typical a La Niña December over the last 30 years:
A faster-than-usual start to winter over the East-Central US with plenty of high-latitude blocking
A faster-than-usual start to winter over the East-Central US with plenty of high-latitude blocking
November 7, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The latest Euro weekly forecast thru mid-December is almost exactly what you’d expect for typical a La Niña December over the last 30 years:
A faster-than-usual start to winter over the East-Central US with plenty of high-latitude blocking
A faster-than-usual start to winter over the East-Central US with plenty of high-latitude blocking
La Niña is living on borrowed time.
The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)
The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)
November 5, 2025 at 9:10 PM
La Niña is living on borrowed time.
The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)
The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)
This winter seems to be intent on following the cool ENSO/East QBO/solar max paradigm of early winter -AO/-NAO
I replicated Gray et al (2004)'s analysis except used SLPa from 20CR & isolated -ENSO (left), which is close to the latest Euro weekly forecast (right) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
I replicated Gray et al (2004)'s analysis except used SLPa from 20CR & isolated -ENSO (left), which is close to the latest Euro weekly forecast (right) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
November 3, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This winter seems to be intent on following the cool ENSO/East QBO/solar max paradigm of early winter -AO/-NAO
I replicated Gray et al (2004)'s analysis except used SLPa from 20CR & isolated -ENSO (left), which is close to the latest Euro weekly forecast (right) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
I replicated Gray et al (2004)'s analysis except used SLPa from 20CR & isolated -ENSO (left), which is close to the latest Euro weekly forecast (right) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Worth mentioning, this year has the 2 main precursors to a -EPO/+TNH ("polar vortex" pattern) dominated winter in place atm as identified by Zhong & Wu (2023).
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & West Pac as well as a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & West Pac as well as a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
November 1, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Worth mentioning, this year has the 2 main precursors to a -EPO/+TNH ("polar vortex" pattern) dominated winter in place atm as identified by Zhong & Wu (2023).
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & West Pac as well as a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & West Pac as well as a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Much like last year, the very warm Tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is going to play a major role in this coming winter.
Compare the current global mean SSTa (left) to the Oct-Nov Warm Pool SST [20S-20N, 90-150E] difference for east QBO/cool ENSO winters only (right)
Compare the current global mean SSTa (left) to the Oct-Nov Warm Pool SST [20S-20N, 90-150E] difference for east QBO/cool ENSO winters only (right)
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Much like last year, the very warm Tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is going to play a major role in this coming winter.
Compare the current global mean SSTa (left) to the Oct-Nov Warm Pool SST [20S-20N, 90-150E] difference for east QBO/cool ENSO winters only (right)
Compare the current global mean SSTa (left) to the Oct-Nov Warm Pool SST [20S-20N, 90-150E] difference for east QBO/cool ENSO winters only (right)
Reposted
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
October 29, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
One characteristic of Hurricane #Melissa that'll always stick w/ me is its lack of "classic" eyewall replacement cycles.
I honestly can't help but think the environmental +SRH was a factor for that, as this modeling study from earlier this yr showed:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
I honestly can't help but think the environmental +SRH was a factor for that, as this modeling study from earlier this yr showed:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
October 29, 2025 at 12:02 AM
One characteristic of Hurricane #Melissa that'll always stick w/ me is its lack of "classic" eyewall replacement cycles.
I honestly can't help but think the environmental +SRH was a factor for that, as this modeling study from earlier this yr showed:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
I honestly can't help but think the environmental +SRH was a factor for that, as this modeling study from earlier this yr showed:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen.
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
October 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen.
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
After the conclusion of this hurricane season, we need to have a real, serious discussion about the utility and validity of sticking with standard reduction techniques for estimating sustained surface winds from flight level in really intense hurricanes.
October 27, 2025 at 4:25 PM
After the conclusion of this hurricane season, we need to have a real, serious discussion about the utility and validity of sticking with standard reduction techniques for estimating sustained surface winds from flight level in really intense hurricanes.
This latest dropsonde in Hurricane Melissa is mind boggling.
185 knot mean winds in the lowest 150m!!!
This reduces to about 155 knots at the surface, a good bit higher than the current NHC estimate of 145 kt and actually very much in line with satellite consensus (SATCON)
185 knot mean winds in the lowest 150m!!!
This reduces to about 155 knots at the surface, a good bit higher than the current NHC estimate of 145 kt and actually very much in line with satellite consensus (SATCON)
October 27, 2025 at 4:19 PM
This latest dropsonde in Hurricane Melissa is mind boggling.
185 knot mean winds in the lowest 150m!!!
This reduces to about 155 knots at the surface, a good bit higher than the current NHC estimate of 145 kt and actually very much in line with satellite consensus (SATCON)
185 knot mean winds in the lowest 150m!!!
This reduces to about 155 knots at the surface, a good bit higher than the current NHC estimate of 145 kt and actually very much in line with satellite consensus (SATCON)
Even with all of the structural, intensity, and SST/OHC changes underneath Hurricane #Melissa the last few days, the diurnal cycle still remains undefeated and inevitable
October 27, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Even with all of the structural, intensity, and SST/OHC changes underneath Hurricane #Melissa the last few days, the diurnal cycle still remains undefeated and inevitable
Holy mackerel, what a dropsonde….
This explicitly supports Melissa being a 145-150 knot hurricane 😳
This explicitly supports Melissa being a 145-150 knot hurricane 😳
October 27, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Holy mackerel, what a dropsonde….
This explicitly supports Melissa being a 145-150 knot hurricane 😳
This explicitly supports Melissa being a 145-150 knot hurricane 😳
Melissa strengthened into a cat 5 hurricane overnight, w/ winds of ~160 mph & central pressure of 913mb.
Even more strengthening is likely later today, which may put this storm in pretty rarified air historically for Atlantic hurricanes.
Awful situation unfolding for much of Jamaica
Even more strengthening is likely later today, which may put this storm in pretty rarified air historically for Atlantic hurricanes.
Awful situation unfolding for much of Jamaica
October 27, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Melissa strengthened into a cat 5 hurricane overnight, w/ winds of ~160 mph & central pressure of 913mb.
Even more strengthening is likely later today, which may put this storm in pretty rarified air historically for Atlantic hurricanes.
Awful situation unfolding for much of Jamaica
Even more strengthening is likely later today, which may put this storm in pretty rarified air historically for Atlantic hurricanes.
Awful situation unfolding for much of Jamaica
Reposted
This is probably the most tone deaf take I've seen from a professional on wxtwitter and social media more broadly speaking during a natural disaster. Not a good look.
October 27, 2025 at 7:06 AM
This is probably the most tone deaf take I've seen from a professional on wxtwitter and social media more broadly speaking during a natural disaster. Not a good look.