The low frequency state already is deviating rather significantly from a typical La Nina.

The transition period between La Nina & El Nino onset often comes with more frequent -EPO/+TNH, especially in mid-late winter

Westerly wind anomalies deep into the Indo-Pacific during the fall before El Niño play a *very* underrated role in preconditioning/charging the Warm Pool over the West Pac

The build-up of the West Pac Warm Pool provides the “fuel” for El Niño to grow later in the yr

This yr is a classic example👇

A lot of the +U is off-equatorial so it’s definitely somewhat a function of box size. However, those off-equatorial westerlies are important too for charging the Warm Pool and forcing a +PMM

Rather unsurprisingly, the easterly trade winds are MIA relatively speaking as this -NPO pattern strengthens its grip on the North Pacific

We likely won't realize the true scope of the ocean response to this MJO event until early Jan or so, but early signs already point to a pretty big ocean response, even before the WWB event in the West-Central Pacific has occurred

La Niña is living on borrowed time in the grand scheme of things

I definitely need to take better care of myself and get more regular exercise and eat healthier. Those things would also certainly help

It really depends on how far the eastern edge of the warm pool is zonally advected towards the central pacific the next few months whether the +TNH is associated with less -PNA or more +PNA late winter.

The current configuration is very favorable to +TNH tho

Hope so too!

That sounds somewhat similar to me though I may have some other compounding factors like pain medication and perhaps some sort of underlying condition (high blood pressure ?). But anxiety during this whole ordeal definitely made it worse.

Thank u!

Thank you Jack!!

Thank you 🙏

It’s so hard to get things to work out in the Desert Lowlands of southern NM & El Paso, even if the longwave pattern is there for a good snow event.

Oth, the pattern is close enough on some guidance to where it‘s legitimately possible (albeit rather unlikely) that they do.

A stronger PV is a better downward reflector of upward propagating wave energy. I do expect the PV to strengthen later in Jan or Feb given the east qbo/high solar combo