They’re here! 🎉 After months of rigorous evaluations, our 2025 Charity Recommendations are out! Learn more about the organizations that can do the most good for animals with additional donations at https://bit.ly/2025-charity-recs 🙌🐥 Together, we’re helping people help more animals. 💙

I’m nearing the end of my second term in the @animalcharityev.bsky.social board and so proud of the team’s progress in identifying top giving opportunities for animals. The rigor and reasonableness has improved year on year.

Check out this year’s picks:

animalcharityevaluators.org/blog/announc...

Most compelling rogue-AI story I’ve encountered.

Goes faster at various points than I can readily believe, but perhaps that's to be expected. A useful illustration of some of the many things that could happen.

📢 Working paper w/ @benleoecon.bsky.social, Johannes Lohse, and Oliver Hauser!

Some have proposed that you can get current generations to invest in the future by enabling future generations to give back.

We test this in an experiment with sequential "generations" of players.

🧵 #EconTwitter

Co-authored with the wonderful @zdgroff.bsky.social, Oliver Hauser, and Johannes Lohse.

Talking to people in the Bay Area last week, I heard of more partial patches for AI alignment than I'd encountered before, such that I'd feel pretty optimistic if many of them were implemented. How much is the issue now *making sure the things we know are good actually happen*?

Dean was a dear mentor to me as I approached economics PhD programs—deeply committed to evidence and efficiency in helping others.

What a shame to no longer have him applying that lens to USAID.

@evavivalt.bsky.social posted -> i texted it to the gc -> gc emails to tyler -> marginal revolution post!

Working paper out!

Does cultured meat make people more open to animal welfare concerns with factory farming? Models of motivated beliefs (or cognitive dissonance) would generally predict yes (substitute = less attachment to meat). We find no!

@zdgroff.bsky.social, Bobbie Macdonald and I consider the impacts of a different new technology: "cultured" meat, i.e., meat that is grown in a lab from cells. 3/

After 11 months of work, we proudly announce Third Opinion: A free of charge expert consultation service for frontier AI professionals. To help you clarify if what you're seeing is cause for concern. Anonymous, without sharing confidential information 🧵
Launch announcement: tinyurl.com/2-9unc19193

📈Job market paper📉

Excited to finally share my JMP! I study whether and why policy choices are stubbornly persistent.

Example: Oregon has an income tax, but not Washington—seemingly because of nearly century-old choices. Is this typical?

Read the paper: www.zachfreitasgroff.com/FreitasGroff...

Neat. Evidence that legal same-sex marriage decreased enrollment in priestly studies (because fewer gay men avoid coming out):

digitalcommons.chapman.edu/cgi/viewcont...

Bonkers. (See updated chart in comment thread.)

Excited to share that I won a second prize in Open Philanthropy's 2023 AI Worldviews contest!

www.openphilanthropy.org/research/ann...

Anyone have an NBER invite code?

I'm glad to see this argument in @nytimes
. The implications of this are complex, but the likelihood of the population plummeting seems way under-discussed.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Is there a word for a Nash equilibrium that is not subgame perfect (e.g., to distinguish it from a subgame perfect one)? What about something that's not perfect Bayesian?

I don't think I've seen "subgame imperfect."