Ziad Daoud
ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Ziad Daoud
@ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Views are mine.
Will the Red Sea finally calm down?

• Houthis signalled they'd halt attacks if the Gaza truce holds
• Maersk says conditions for eventual return are improving

A full shipping resumption could restore $9 billion in lost Suez Canal revenue for Egypt

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Maersk Sees Better Safety in Red Sea as It Eyes Eventual Return
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said the conditions for it to resume transit through the southern Red Sea appear to be improving as the shipping giant plots an eventual return to a route that shaves thousands ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:08 AM
A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) the war is over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage

Recent strikes on Gaza and Lebanon cast doubt on (1)

Plunging foreign direct investment is one of several challenges to (2)

Latest on the Bloomberg terminal
November 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
"After a visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017 .. Trump cited $350 billion in economic deals, including .. “an immediate $110 billion investment.” Official US statistics show direct investment from Saudi Arabia had risen by only about $5 billion by .. 2024"

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions
Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.
www.bloomberg.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Israel: "More than 80,000 of the country's 10 million citizens newly moved abroad in 2024, and similar numbers are expected this year"

"workers in Israel's cutting-edge technology sector .. are strongly represented among the émigrés"

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Israelis moving abroad in rising numbers due to fear and discontent
Tens of thousands of Israelis have left over the past two years, and many are young and well-educated, raising concerns over economic and social consequences.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:44 AM
"Work has started on new alcohol stores in two of Saudi Arabia’s main cities to serve some non-Muslim customers
..
The kingdom is building two liquor shops in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah and Dammam in the east"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New Alcohol Stores to Open in Saudi Arabia for Some Non-Muslims
Work has started on new alcohol stores in two of Saudi Arabia’s main cities to serve some non-Muslim customers, the latest step in the country’s efforts to loosen social restrictions.
www.bloomberg.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:19 AM
"Saudi Arabia appears to have widened access to alcohol, allowing non-Muslims holding a special residency status to purchase alcoholic drinks from a Riyadh store previously reserved for foreign diplomats"

www.semafor.com/article/11/2...
Exclusive: Saudi Arabia quietly widens alcohol sales for expats
Non-Muslim holders of premium residency are now able to buy from a store previously limited to diplomats.
www.semafor.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Iraq oil sector: Russia out, US in?

"Exxon and its US rival Chevron are interested in Lukoil’s international assets, including the major oil field in southern Iraqi which accounts for about 10% of the country’s production"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Exxon Meets Iraq Oil Minister to Discuss Lukoil West Qurna Stake
Exxon Mobil Corp. officials met with Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani Wednesday where they discussed Lukoil PJSC’s stake in the West Qurna 2 field, according to a person with knowledge of the mat...
www.bloomberg.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Ceasefire:

Israel on Sunday struck Lebanon’s capital for the first time since June: apnews.com/article/isra...

Israel launches strikes in Gaza: apnews.com/article/gaza...
Israel says it killed a senior Hezbollah official in its first strike on Beirut in months
Israel has struck Lebanon’s capital for the first time since June, saying it killed Hezbollah’s chief of staff and warning the Iran-backed militant group not to rearm and rebuild.
apnews.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:30 AM
"Al-Majd was linked to .. [a] company established by Tomer Janar Lind, a dual Israeli-Estonian national
..
The group had strong enough connections with the Israeli state .. where ministers have championed the notion of emptying Gaza’s population"

www.ft.com/content/f347...
The brokers offering to spirit Palestinians from Gaza
People in the devastated enclave are turning to an obscure group offering them new lives — for a price
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Oil: "If engineers are successful, it would turn shale from a sprinter into a marathon runner. The impact won’t be another gusher, but a steady flow of barrels far longer into the future than the industry anticipated"

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Shale Oil’s Next Revolution Should Worry OPEC
Even after years of technological breakthroughs, the shale industry still leaves most of the oil underground. At best, American drillers siphon away 15% to 10% of what’s potentially available; the res...
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:05 AM
"People in Gaza began seeing ads for Al-Majd early this year promising a route to safe evacuation
..
Al-Majd .. is connected to the Voluntary Migration Administration, an office inside Israel's Defense Ministry that helps Palestinians leave Gaza"

www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Inside the Israeli-Linked Flights Carrying Palestinians Out of Gaza
A little-known organization that facilitates exits and takes payment in cryptocurrency has flown nearly 400 people out on three flights.
www.wsj.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Saudi: "While PIF says it holds nearly $1 trillion in assets, a huge portion of its portfolio is tied up in hard-to-sell assets for which no public valuations are available"

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b...
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Has Big Plans, but His Giant Fund Is Low on Cash
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:04 AM
"Former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers will immediately leave his role as an instructor at Harvard while the University investigates his ties to child sex trafficker Jeffrey E. Epstein"

www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
Summers Will Not Finish Semester of Teaching as Harvard Investigates Epstein Ties | News | The Harvard Crimson
Former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers will immediately leave his role as an instructor at Harvard while the University investigates his ties to child sex trafficker Jeffrey E. Epstein.
www.thecrimson.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Saudi raised its US pledge from $600 billion to $1 trillion

Over decades, that cash might flow — but during Trump’s term? Unlikely

Why:
• Trade flows are too small
• Riyadh is now a net borrower from the world
• Shifting all existing assets to the US is unrealistic
November 20, 2025 at 9:00 AM
An airstrike by Israel killed at least 13 people at the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Israeli Strike Kills 13 at Palestinian Refugee Camp in Lebanon
An airstrike killed at least 13 people in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp, one of Israel’s deadliest attacks on its neighboring country’s southern region that the Jewish state continues to ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Trump: Thank you because you've agreed to invest $600 bn into the United States

MBS: We're going to increase that 600 bn to almost $1 trillion of foreign investment

Trump: You're saying to me now that the 600 bn will be 1 trillion?

MBS: Definitely

www.youtube.com/watch?v=nols...
Saudi Prince MBS Pledges to Invest $1 Trillion in US
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
www.youtube.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:55 AM
"Former Harvard President Larry Summers said he plans to step back from his public commitments after his correspondence with the late disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was made public by US lawmakers"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Summers to Step Back From Public Roles After Epstein Backlash
Former Harvard President Larry Summers said he plans to step back from his public commitments after his correspondence with the late disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was made public by US lawmak...
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
"South Africa is investigating a flight that brought Palestinians to Johannesburg last week, describing it as suspicious and part of a wider effort to “cleanse” them"

Israel "has a department dedicated to encouraging “volunteer emigration” from Gaza"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
South Africa Warns of Bid to ‘Cleanse’ Palestinians From Gaza
South Africa is investigating a flight that brought Palestinians to Johannesburg last week, describing it as suspicious and part of a wider effort to “cleanse” them from Gaza and the West Bank.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
MBS meeting with Trump today: all security, no oil

Prices are similar to their past meetings in May & 2018, when crude barely came up

It mattered when MBS met Biden in 2022 — oil was near $100 & Washington was begging for barrels

Latest by Dina Esfandiary & me on the Bloomberg terminal
November 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Trump is expected to reach an agreement with MBS that would allow Saudi to buy F-35 jets

"One sticking point is that Israel is the only state in the Middle East that has the fighter jets and is eager to protect that monopoly"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Likely to Sell F-35 Fighters to Saudis, US Official Says
President Donald Trump is expected to reach an agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that would allow the kingdom to purchase F-35 stealth planes, according to an administration offici...
www.bloomberg.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:58 AM
What could prevent a massive oil glut in 2026?
• Stronger-than-expected demand
• Non-OPEC producers pushed out
• OPEC+ cutting supply

How likely are OPEC+ cuts?

Less than a third of oil traders surveyed by Bloomberg think that'll happen

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Oil Traders Doubt OPEC+ Will Cut Supply in 2026 Despite Surplus
Oil traders are not counting on OPEC+ to cut production next year, despite forecasts that a global supply surplus could send prices even lower.
www.bloomberg.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:48 AM
The IEA expects oil supplies could exceed demand by 4 million barrels a day next year — a record glut

But the IEA also thinks that the gap is so big, it's unlikely to happen

What gives?
• Lower prices boost consumption
• Cheaper oil curbs supply

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
ما هي الدروس المستفادة من صفقة (علم الروم) بين قطر ومصر؟

1. الدعم الخليجي تحول من ودائع إلى استثمارات، خصوصا في العقار
2. مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022-2024
3. الدعم الخارجي يشتري لمصر الوقت، لكنه لن يمنع أزمة في العقد القادم
4. مصر تكتشف مصدر جديد للريع: الأرض

لنأخذهم بالترتيب

1/5
November 16, 2025 at 9:39 AM
5 things that happened this week:

OPEC flipped its view on the oil market in the 3rd quarter

It once saw supply shortages — now says there was a surplus

Yet prices barely budged, holding near $67 that quarter

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 15, 2025 at 10:03 AM