Recent strikes on Gaza and Lebanon cast doubt on (1)
Plunging foreign direct investment is one of several challenges to (2)
Latest on the Bloomberg terminal
Recent strikes on Gaza and Lebanon cast doubt on (1)
Plunging foreign direct investment is one of several challenges to (2)
Latest on the Bloomberg terminal
Over decades, that cash might flow — but during Trump’s term? Unlikely
Why:
• Trade flows are too small
• Riyadh is now a net borrower from the world
• Shifting all existing assets to the US is unrealistic
Over decades, that cash might flow — but during Trump’s term? Unlikely
Why:
• Trade flows are too small
• Riyadh is now a net borrower from the world
• Shifting all existing assets to the US is unrealistic
Prices are similar to their past meetings in May & 2018, when crude barely came up
It mattered when MBS met Biden in 2022 — oil was near $100 & Washington was begging for barrels
Latest by Dina Esfandiary & me on the Bloomberg terminal
Prices are similar to their past meetings in May & 2018, when crude barely came up
It mattered when MBS met Biden in 2022 — oil was near $100 & Washington was begging for barrels
Latest by Dina Esfandiary & me on the Bloomberg terminal
But the IEA also thinks that the gap is so big, it's unlikely to happen
What gives?
• Lower prices boost consumption
• Cheaper oil curbs supply
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
But the IEA also thinks that the gap is so big, it's unlikely to happen
What gives?
• Lower prices boost consumption
• Cheaper oil curbs supply
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
تاريخيا مصر تدخل أزمة اقتصادية كل 10 سنوات تقريبا
الأسباب:
جنيه غير مرن
منافسة ضعيفة
تمويل غير كاف للشركات المصدرة
الدعم الخارجي لا يعالج هذه الأسباب
4/5
مصدر الجدول: www.piie.com/publications...
تاريخيا مصر تدخل أزمة اقتصادية كل 10 سنوات تقريبا
الأسباب:
جنيه غير مرن
منافسة ضعيفة
تمويل غير كاف للشركات المصدرة
الدعم الخارجي لا يعالج هذه الأسباب
4/5
مصدر الجدول: www.piie.com/publications...
كيف تجاوزت الأزمة؟
دعم خارجي وصل إلى 60 مليار دولار
وانخفاض أسعار الفائدة عالميا جذب الأموال الساخنة إلى القاهرة
النتيجة؟
احتياطي النقد الأجنبي وصل إلى 50 مليار دولار في أكتوبر، أعلى مستوى في تاريخه
3/5
كيف تجاوزت الأزمة؟
دعم خارجي وصل إلى 60 مليار دولار
وانخفاض أسعار الفائدة عالميا جذب الأموال الساخنة إلى القاهرة
النتيجة؟
احتياطي النقد الأجنبي وصل إلى 50 مليار دولار في أكتوبر، أعلى مستوى في تاريخه
3/5
1. الدعم الخليجي تحول من ودائع إلى استثمارات، خصوصا في العقار
2. مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022-2024
3. الدعم الخارجي يشتري لمصر الوقت، لكنه لن يمنع أزمة في العقد القادم
4. مصر تكتشف مصدر جديد للريع: الأرض
لنأخذهم بالترتيب
1/5
1. الدعم الخليجي تحول من ودائع إلى استثمارات، خصوصا في العقار
2. مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022-2024
3. الدعم الخارجي يشتري لمصر الوقت، لكنه لن يمنع أزمة في العقد القادم
4. مصر تكتشف مصدر جديد للريع: الأرض
لنأخذهم بالترتيب
1/5
International reserves hit a record $50 billion in October — up from $35 billion in early 2024
Inflation has fallen to 12.5%, down from a 38% peak in late 2023
4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
International reserves hit a record $50 billion in October — up from $35 billion in early 2024
Inflation has fallen to 12.5%, down from a 38% peak in late 2023
4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
OPEC flipped its view on the oil market in the 3rd quarter
It once saw supply shortages — now says there was a surplus
Yet prices barely budged, holding near $67 that quarter
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
OPEC flipped its view on the oil market in the 3rd quarter
It once saw supply shortages — now says there was a surplus
Yet prices barely budged, holding near $67 that quarter
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1. Gulf support has moved from deposits to investments
2. Egypt is safe from crisis, for now
3. Gulf money buys Egypt time, but won't prevent another crisis in the 2030s
4. Land has become Egypt’s newest rent stream
1. Gulf support has moved from deposits to investments
2. Egypt is safe from crisis, for now
3. Gulf money buys Egypt time, but won't prevent another crisis in the 2030s
4. Land has become Egypt’s newest rent stream
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
2008-2009 الأزمة المالية العالمية: فائض الموازنة يتحول إلى عجز 15% من حجم الاقتصاد
2014-2016 طفرة النفط الصخري: اللجوء لصندوق النقد الدولي للمساعدة
2020 الجائحة: خفض الدينار لسداد الفواتير
2/5
2008-2009 الأزمة المالية العالمية: فائض الموازنة يتحول إلى عجز 15% من حجم الاقتصاد
2014-2016 طفرة النفط الصخري: اللجوء لصندوق النقد الدولي للمساعدة
2020 الجائحة: خفض الدينار لسداد الفواتير
2/5
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
Forecasters see a supply surplus after OPEC+ pumped more barrels since May
Oil has dropped to $64, down from $75 at the start of the year
5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Forecasters see a supply surplus after OPEC+ pumped more barrels since May
Oil has dropped to $64, down from $75 at the start of the year
5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...