Ziad Daoud
ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Ziad Daoud
@ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Views are mine.
A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) the war is over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage

Recent strikes on Gaza and Lebanon cast doubt on (1)

Plunging foreign direct investment is one of several challenges to (2)

Latest on the Bloomberg terminal
November 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Saudi raised its US pledge from $600 billion to $1 trillion

Over decades, that cash might flow — but during Trump’s term? Unlikely

Why:
• Trade flows are too small
• Riyadh is now a net borrower from the world
• Shifting all existing assets to the US is unrealistic
November 20, 2025 at 9:00 AM
MBS meeting with Trump today: all security, no oil

Prices are similar to their past meetings in May & 2018, when crude barely came up

It mattered when MBS met Biden in 2022 — oil was near $100 & Washington was begging for barrels

Latest by Dina Esfandiary & me on the Bloomberg terminal
November 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
The IEA expects oil supplies could exceed demand by 4 million barrels a day next year — a record glut

But the IEA also thinks that the gap is so big, it's unlikely to happen

What gives?
• Lower prices boost consumption
• Cheaper oil curbs supply

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
ثالثا: الدعم الخارجي لن يمنع أزمة جديدة في العقد المقبل

تاريخيا مصر تدخل أزمة اقتصادية كل 10 سنوات تقريبا

الأسباب:
جنيه غير مرن
منافسة ضعيفة
تمويل غير كاف للشركات المصدرة

الدعم الخارجي لا يعالج هذه الأسباب

4/5
مصدر الجدول: www.piie.com/publications...
November 16, 2025 at 9:39 AM
ثانيا: مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022–2024 التي أدت إلى فقدان الجنيه لثلثي قيمته

كيف تجاوزت الأزمة؟
دعم خارجي وصل إلى 60 مليار دولار
وانخفاض أسعار الفائدة عالميا جذب الأموال الساخنة إلى القاهرة

النتيجة؟
احتياطي النقد الأجنبي وصل إلى 50 مليار دولار في أكتوبر، أعلى مستوى في تاريخه

3/5
November 16, 2025 at 9:39 AM
ما هي الدروس المستفادة من صفقة (علم الروم) بين قطر ومصر؟

1. الدعم الخليجي تحول من ودائع إلى استثمارات، خصوصا في العقار
2. مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022-2024
3. الدعم الخارجي يشتري لمصر الوقت، لكنه لن يمنع أزمة في العقد القادم
4. مصر تكتشف مصدر جديد للريع: الأرض

لنأخذهم بالترتيب

1/5
November 16, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Egypt fortunes have flipped after last year's UAE-led bailout

International reserves hit a record $50 billion in October — up from $35 billion in early 2024

Inflation has fallen to 12.5%, down from a 38% peak in late 2023

4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 15, 2025 at 10:03 AM
5 things that happened this week:

OPEC flipped its view on the oil market in the 3rd quarter

It once saw supply shortages — now says there was a surplus

Yet prices barely budged, holding near $67 that quarter

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 15, 2025 at 10:03 AM
My latest: 4 lessons from Qatar's $3.5 billion bet on Egypt

1. Gulf support has moved from deposits to investments
2. Egypt is safe from crisis, for now
3. Gulf money buys Egypt time, but won't prevent another crisis in the 2030s
4. Land has become Egypt’s newest rent stream
November 13, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Iraq devalued the dinar in 2020 when oil crashed

It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared

Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?

The prime minister says: there are “no risks”

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 9:01 AM
A Saudi puzzle:

The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)

But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)

Are the two goals compatible?

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Iraq's dollar spending on salaries & pensions is up by 60% since 2021

The state now pays 9 million people

So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?

The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”

Iraq votes today

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Egypt inflation rose to 12.5% in October from 11.7%

Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data

Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis

The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 10, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Saudi Arabia’s budget promised spending cuts in 2025

Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down

Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
November 10, 2025 at 10:03 AM
خلال العقدين الماضيين، انخفضت أسعار النفط 3 مرات، وفي كل مرة دخل العراق ضائقة:

2008-2009 الأزمة المالية العالمية: فائض الموازنة يتحول إلى عجز 15% من حجم الاقتصاد

2014-2016 طفرة النفط الصخري: اللجوء لصندوق النقد الدولي للمساعدة

2020 الجائحة: خفض الدينار لسداد الفواتير

2/5
November 9, 2025 at 10:15 AM
ما أهمية الانتخابات العراقية بعد يومين؟

التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط

3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين

1/5
November 9, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Saudi cut its oil export prices for December & OPEC+ decided to halt output hikes in early 2026

Forecasters see a supply surplus after OPEC+ pumped more barrels since May

Oil has dropped to $64, down from $75 at the start of the year

5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 8, 2025 at 5:30 PM
5 things that happened this week:

Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years

In return, it gets land on the North Coast

The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 8, 2025 at 5:30 PM
4 possible futures await the dollar:
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto

Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators

Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
November 7, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Qatar plans to send $3.5 billion to Egypt

Target: another tourism project on the north coast

In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
3 hard truths define Iraq today:‎
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill

Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
How is the Gaza ceasefire going?

Quieter — but not quiet

As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
November 5, 2025 at 10:05 AM
My latest: OPEC+ blinked — and Saudi data explain why

Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?

The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers

It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
November 4, 2025 at 9:08 AM
5 things that happened in October:

Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 2, 2025 at 8:57 AM