Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
Economics
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Business
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We desperately need reforms at the Federal Reserve, says Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, The Wharton School Rene Kern professor and Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the AI trade, impact of AI on productivity...
www.cnbc.com
The link to this morning's CNBC conversation with Becky Quick and Joe Kernen -- on AI, the economy, Google, Accenture, and the Federal Reserve.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets #AI #federalreserve #google #accenture #cnbc @cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets #AI #federalreserve #google #accenture #cnbc @cnbc.com
The jury met today to discuss the shortlist for this year's Business Book of the Year.
Roula Khalaf, the editor of the Financial Times, will announce the winner in London Wednesday evening.
My deep thanks to the organizers for the privilege of serving on the jury.
@financialtimes.com #bbya #bbya25
Roula Khalaf, the editor of the Financial Times, will announce the winner in London Wednesday evening.
My deep thanks to the organizers for the privilege of serving on the jury.
@financialtimes.com #bbya #bbya25
Thank you, Becky Quick and Joe Kernen, for the interesting conversation this morning on CNBC.
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
Get Ready for an Overdue Fed Overhaul
Mohamed A. El-Erian hopes the US central bank's next chair shakes the institution out of its complacency.
www.project-syndicate.org
...
The third issue, as discussed here, is how will the new leadership handle the overdue reform of the world's most important central bank:
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #markets #federalreserve @axios.com
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The third issue, as discussed here, is how will the new leadership handle the overdue reform of the world's most important central bank:
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #markets #federalreserve @axios.com
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Per Axios, “President Trump said Sunday he's decided who he'll nominate to be the next Federal Reserve chair.”
Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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Get Ready for an Overdue Fed Overhaul
Mohamed A. El-Erian hopes the US central bank's next chair shakes the institution out of its complacency.
www.project-syndicate.org
...as discussed below: the long-overdue reform of the world's most important central bank.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #federalreserve #markets
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www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #federalreserve #markets
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Get Ready for an Overdue Fed Overhaul
Mohamed A. El-Erian hopes the US central bank's next chair shakes the institution out of its complacency.
www.project-syndicate.org
Most Federal Reserve watchers are understandably fixated on the twin questions of the December 10 rate decision and the race to replace Chair Powell.
These immediate questions shouldn't obscure a deeper issue ...
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These immediate questions shouldn't obscure a deeper issue ...
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The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets
The Context Despite the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, last week delivered interesting insights for economists and investors—most notably a sharp repricing of Fed policy and a tentative “thumbs up” f...
www.linkedin.com
Good morning.
Please see one of the links below for my weekly take on the global; economy and markets.
Thank you.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly...
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
Please see one of the links below for my weekly take on the global; economy and markets.
Thank you.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly...
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
It was truly a privilege and an honor to be part of "GIC Insights 2025" in Singapore.
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
Today's two notable data releases:
INDIA: GDP quarterly growth surged to an unexpected 8.2%, beating forecasts and reinforcing the country's status as the world's fastest-growing major economy. Manufacturing and domestic consumption are booming....
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INDIA: GDP quarterly growth surged to an unexpected 8.2%, beating forecasts and reinforcing the country's status as the world's fastest-growing major economy. Manufacturing and domestic consumption are booming....
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Reeves has reassured the bond vigilantes but tests to come
Investors welcomed Budget’s fiscal rigour, giving the chancellor the benefit of the doubt on implementation, productivity and growth for now
www.ft.com
Posted earlier:
My take on the UK budget
www.ft.com/content/de60...
#economy #markets #uk #ukbudget @financialtimes.com
My take on the UK budget
www.ft.com/content/de60...
#economy #markets #uk #ukbudget @financialtimes.com
... budget at a faster pace than elsewhere. It’s also about vulnerability.
The more this "UK premium" embeds itself in the public finances, the higher the risk of a self-feeding vicious cycle.
#economy #Markets #UKBudget2025 #UKEconomy #UKBudget #uk @financialtimes.com
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The more this "UK premium" embeds itself in the public finances, the higher the risk of a self-feeding vicious cycle.
#economy #Markets #UKBudget2025 #UKEconomy #UKBudget #uk @financialtimes.com
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A sobering chart from Martin Wolf (below).
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
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The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
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While on the UK budget, here are some summary charts from the Financial Times.
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
FYI, the link to my take on the UK budget:
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
Remove media
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
Remove media
National Summary
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
... shutdown having played a role.
Inflation: Input price pressures continue to rise, driven in part by healthcare and tariff-related costs.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #jobs #inflation #markets
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Inflation: Input price pressures continue to rise, driven in part by healthcare and tariff-related costs.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #jobs #inflation #markets
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... of persistent, moderate pressures on both sides of the central bank’s dual mandate. Specifically:
Labor Market: Companies appear somewhat more hesitant to hire. This extends the first element of the current "low hire, low fire" dynamic, with the recently ended government ...
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Labor Market: Companies appear somewhat more hesitant to hire. This extends the first element of the current "low hire, low fire" dynamic, with the recently ended government ...
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Good morning, and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone celebrating.
After yesterday's UK budget rush of news, I wanted to circle back to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book (link below).
The bottom-up data from the Fed’s twelve regional banks aligns with the hypothesis...
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After yesterday's UK budget rush of news, I wanted to circle back to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book (link below).
The bottom-up data from the Fed’s twelve regional banks aligns with the hypothesis...
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Watch CNBC's full interview with Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and former PIMCO CEO, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss his expectations for Fed rate cuts, whether Kevin Hassett would be a strong choice to lea...
www.cnbc.com
Please find below the links to this morning's conversation with Sara Eisen, David Faber and Carl Quintanilla on CNBC's Squawk on the Street.
Thanks Carl, David and Sara for having me on your show.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy @cnbc.com
Thanks Carl, David and Sara for having me on your show.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy @cnbc.com
Building on my earlier FT analysis, the unusual run-up to the UK budget continues with the premature publication of the OBR's assessment of the proposed measures, as well as the overall economic context.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
... is to weaker growth, higher borrowing rates, or adverse external shocks.
The smaller the headroom, the tighter the fiscal tightrope the UK is walking.
#UKBudget #FiscalPolicy #Economy #Headroom #UK #budget @financialtimes.com
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The smaller the headroom, the tighter the fiscal tightrope the UK is walking.
#UKBudget #FiscalPolicy #Economy #Headroom #UK #budget @financialtimes.com
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Speaking of the UK budget, many will pay attention to the magnitude of the “headroom.” This gives a feel for how much room the UK has to forsake revenues or raise spending without breaking the fiscal rules and, also, how vulnerable the fiscal stance...
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What to watch for in the Budget
Investors taken by surprise as fiscal watchdog publishes data prematurely
www.ft.com
UK Budget Day is Here.
As we await the details of this major fiscal event, here’s the link to live coverage via the Financial Times’ live blog (including my analysis on the run-up to today’s announcements):
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
#economy #budget #uk #ukbudget #markets @financialtimes.com
As we await the details of this major fiscal event, here’s the link to live coverage via the Financial Times’ live blog (including my analysis on the run-up to today’s announcements):
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
#economy #budget #uk #ukbudget #markets @financialtimes.com
According to Bloomberg, “National Economic Council Director Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for the next Fed chair.”
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
...stark by the one-month view:
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
It's a remarkable move, made even more...