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John Eric Humphries

@johneric.bsky.social

720 followers 240 following 1 posts

Assistant professor at Yale. Labor economist. johnerichumphries.com

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

NBER @nber.org · Apr 14

Eviction has spillover effects on children, with particularly negative effects for boys and older kids. These effects may be moderated by access to family support networks, from Collinson, Dutz, @johneric.bsky.social, Mader, Tannenbaum, and van Dijk https://www.nber.org/papers/w33659

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

Megan Stevenson @meganstevenson.bsky.social · Mar 3

Paper🧵!

We....

1) develop a framework for identification w/ multiple treatments in a judge IV design
2) find that felony conviction (without incarceration) increases recidivism relative to dismissal

with @johneric.bsky.social Aurelie Ouss @winnievd.bsky.social and Kamelia Stavreva
1/

This a screenshot of the abstract of our paper, called Conviction, Incarceration and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door. It says "Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual
incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to
prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple
treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline
assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment
effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression
that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key
assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral conviction (relative
to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in
Virginia. In contrast, incarceration (relative to noncarceral conviction) leads to a short-run
reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. Our empirical results suggest that
noncarceral felony conviction is an important and overlooked driver of recidivism."

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

Reposted by Nathan Nunn

John Eric Humphries @johneric.bsky.social · Feb 24

Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/...

@jabaluck.bsky.social

Cowles Summer Conference Paper Submission Form

cowles.yale.edu

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries