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Gopi Shah Goda

@gsgoda.bsky.social

4.6K followers 800 following 21 posts

Senior Fellow and Director, Retirement Security Project @Brookings. Previously: Research Associate @NBER, Senior Fellow @SIEPR, Biden-Harris Council of Economic Advisers. Passionate about connecting research to policy. https://www.gopishahgoda.org .. more

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

Hi #EconSky! 🚨New working paper alert!🚨

One way the U.S. gov’t subsidizes medical spending is by allowing certain expenses to be deducted on tax returns. But who is eligible, who claims it and why, and what are the implications?

www.nber.org/papers/w33213

Keep reading to learn more...! 1/

Subsidizing Medical Spending through the Tax Code: Take-Up, Targeting and the Cost of Claiming

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda, Erica L. Groshen

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Mar 19

The new Trump administration is now making an unprecedented effort to PREVENT science from informing policy.

For many years, these committees of outside, independent scientists advised federal statistical agencies on best methods.

Administration says we don't want that.
bsky.app/profile/eric...

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · Mar 19

R.I.P. #DUAC & #BLSTAC. The Labor Sec. just terminated BLS’s 2 remaining advisory committees. Members got notice today (3/19/25). See attached text.
#FESAC, which served #BLS, BEA & Census jointly, was axed on 3/4/25.
@stevepierson123.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Sep 25

📉📈 Stanford Institute for Economic & Policy Research senior fellow, former CEA senior economist, my 4X coauthor, & all around econ superstar Gopi Shah Goda is here! Welcome, @gsgoda.bsky.social!

Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Sep 28

Out this morning in Briefing Book, Jeff Zhang and Dan Awrey run down the systemic issues in bank regulation and supervision that were laid bare by the SVB failure www.briefingbook.info/p/anatomy-of...

Anatomy of a banking crisis

Silicon Valley Bank's failure highlighted weaknesses throughout the regulatory system

www.briefingbook.info

Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Oct 12

New from @gsgoda.bsky.social today in Briefing Book: an aging population presents several challenges, but there are things policymakers can do now to start addressing them 📈📉 www.briefingbook.info/p/how-can-so...

How can societies prepare for an aging population?

Actions now can help turn the tide and mitigate the economic impacts of population aging

www.briefingbook.info

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Neale Mahoney @nealemahoney.bsky.social · Sep 16

Congrats to @kevinrinz.bsky.social, @gsgoda.bsky.social, Wes Yin, and Jeff Zhang on the one-year anniversary of Briefing Book.

Briefing Book is a tremendous public service and well deserving of its rapid subscriber growth.

(You should sign up if you haven't.)

open.substack.com/pub/briefing...

Briefing Book is one year old!

Celebrating a year of posting

open.substack.com

Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Courtney Van Houtven @chvanhoutven.bsky.social · Oct 28

The brilliant @gsgoda.bsky.social and I wrote a piece evaluating the Harris-Walz proposal to expand Medicare home care coverage.
www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...

#EconSky #HealthPolicy

Tell us what you think!

Expanding in-home care coverage is a needed evolution of Medicare

www.brookings.edu

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · Mar 19

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Reposted by Mark Harrison, Mariacristina De Nardi, Laura Veldkamp , and 1 more Mark Harrison, Mariacristina De Nardi, Laura Veldkamp, Gopi Shah Goda

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · Mar 19

Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics
on.ft.com/43Tejhn

The White House war on federal statistics

Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · Feb 11

Hi Bluesky! We’re The Hamilton Project.

We produce research and proposals on some of our nation’s most pressing economic policy challenges, from economic security and growth to climate and health care.

#EconSky @brookings.edu

The Hamilton Project

The Hamilton Project produces evidence-based policy proposals and analyses to promote broad-based economic growth.

www.hamiltonproject.org

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Laura Wherry @laurawherryr.bsky.social · Jan 10

Happy ERP day! The 2025 Economic Report of the President is out now! Chapters cover a wide range of topics incl. remote work and K-12 ed - be sure to check it out. I'm presenting the health policy chapter at Brookings next Wed, links below #econsky #healthpolicy
www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-...

The 2025 Economic Report of the President | CEA | The White House

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of Chair Jared Bernstein released the 2025 Economic Report of the President, the 79th report since the establishment of CEA in 1946. The 20...

www.whitehouse.gov

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Reposted by Ioana Marinescu, Gopi Shah Goda, Danila Serra , and 1 more Ioana Marinescu, Gopi Shah Goda, Danila Serra, David Slusky

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Jan 10

Thanks @bencasselman.bsky.social for this thoughtful examination of the relationship between economists & policymaking today, including voices of @jasonfurman.bsky.social @kclausing.bsky.social @imarinescu.bsky.social @jrothst.bsky.social me & many others.
#EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...

Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?

Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

Thanks to TIAA Institute for funding this work! This paper is dedicated to my dad, who was the inspiration for this research agenda.

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

If you like this paper and want to learn about how the tax savings for IMDs are distributed, how it compares to the MID, and how it changed with the TCJA, check out my related paper with Ithai Lurie, Priyanka Parikh, and Chelsea Swete here!

www.nber.org/papers/w33157

11/ END

The Distributional Implications of Itemized Medical Deductions

www.nber.org

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

In conclusion, subsidizing medical expenses through the tax code imposes significant economic burdens, reducing the net subsidy available to taxpayers. 10/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

The implied costs for alternative subsidy structures simulated using the model estimates are slightly lower but still substantial relative to the overall tax savings, as tracking out-of-pocket medical spending likely accounts for a large part of the hassle.

9/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

Finally, I estimate a simple model that makes use of differences in the value of the subsidy across states. The model generates an implied cost of claiming the subsidy ~80% as large as the tax savings, on average. For some groups, the implied cost exceeds the tax savings. 8/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

I explore potential mechanisms behind incomplete take-up and find evidence that lack of awareness plays a role – as households are eligible more years, they are more and more likely to take advantage of the deduction. 7/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

What’s more – those who are eligible but don’t claim the subsidy actually have *higher* levels of medical spending than those who are eligible and do claim. They also have lower income, lower levels of education and worse measures of health. 6/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

Using detailed data on income and out-of-pocket medical spending from the HRS, I estimate what people could deduct and compare them to what they actually do. I find about half of deductions are claimed, and incomplete take-up costs older households more than $5B annually in lost tax savings. 5/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

Does anyone actually spend that much on medical spending? Turns out over $75B in IMDs were deducted in 2021, about 2/3 by taxpayers over 65. The forgone revenue from this deduction is almost $10B annually – 29% of the forgone revenue from the mortgage interest deduction! 4/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

What you can deduct is quite expansive! (Caveat: I'm not an accountant and do not offer tax advice ☺️) 3/

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Dec 2

First, what is this subsidy? If you spend more than 7.5% of AGI on out-of-pocket medical spending, the excess can be included in your itemized deductions. Your itemized medical deduction (IMD) reduces your tax liability by reducing your taxable income:

2/

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Reposted by Gopi Shah Goda

Kevin Rinz @kevinrinz.bsky.social · Dec 2

Today in @briefingbook.bsky.social, @fkamal.bsky.social, Erica Groshen, @jrothst.bsky.social, @victoriaudalova.bsky.social, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @gsgoda.bsky.social, @awhf.bsky.social, @chloergibbs.bsky.social, and I flag issues to watch as the admin changes www.briefingbook.info/p/quick-hits...

Quick hits: Policies to think about as the administration changes

Trade, civil service protections, Medicaid waivers, retirement security, the Paperwork Reduction Act, and more

www.briefingbook.info

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Gopi Shah Goda @gsgoda.bsky.social · Nov 24

Do we need an econ joke as the price of entry?