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Reposted by Aaron Stein

Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 10h

Can the United States afford to give away some of its most advanced undersea assets while trying to outpace China’s military expansion? Find out in #BehindTheFront buff.ly/CJ1pza5

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 7d

Big announcement for @fpri.bsky.social :: FPRI Appoints Shihoko Goto as Vice President of Programs

www.fpri.org/news/2025/10...

www.fpri.org

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Reposted by Aaron Stein

Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 8d

By Air and by Sea: PRC Coercion of Taiwan from Trump I to Trump II buff.ly/bVW1xFD

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 9d

The reason Rosatom is the ONLY firm building in Turkey is b/c Rosatom is an entity of the Russian government, subsidized, and willing to take a loss (and even at that they are trying to sell stakes to capital raise to offset losses).

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 9d

The limitation on US investment in the Turkish nuclear sector is the BOO model. Not a lack of interest historically from Westinghouse et al. It is simply too capital intensive for private entities to finance a reactor based on a fixed price of kWh purchase agreement over 20+ years.

Clément Plaisant @cplaisant.bsky.social · 9d

"The partnership will likely result in the United States becoming involved in new nuclear power plant builds, and Sinop and Thrace have been identified as “the country’s next nuclear frontiers,” with a particular interest in SMRs"
nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-...

Nuclear Energy Now – The United States and Turkey Sign a Nuclear Agreement

Underground SMRs advance, the United States and Turkey sign a nuclear energy agreement, and Russia and Iran deepen nuclear cooperation.

nationalinterest.org

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 9d

I'll just add: It is not at all odd to use a foreign engine in your prototype, or an engine not designed for the jet. The F110 isn't a bottleneck to Kaan, per se. So its largely irrelevant IMHO.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 9d

I wasn't making it up:

US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 9d

The always excellent @salisbot.bsky.social for @fpri.bsky.social :: The Return of Subic Bay open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

The Return of Subic Bay

Subic Bay is back in American planning.

open.substack.com

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 12d

More from us @fpri.bsky.social on the future of CCA

Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 12d

Continued Conversation About Collaborative Combat Aircraft buff.ly/aJ8dWT4

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 13d

This will be about SMRs, a discussion dating back to the Biden years. www.reuters.com/world/turkey...

Turkey, US in talks on nuclear plant projects, Turkish official says

Turkey is holding talks with the United States on the construction of large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors (SMR), a senior Turkish Energy Ministry official said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 13d

The US and Turkey already have a nuclear agreement --> www.energy.gov/nnsa/123-agr...

123 Agreements for Peaceful Cooperation

123 Agreements facilitate nuclear cooperation agreement for significant transfers of nuclear material, equipment, or components.

www.energy.gov

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Reposted by Aaron Stein

Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 14d

Follow FPRI's Insights Substack for updates on events, analysis, podcasts, and more! buff.ly/jprOu8N

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 14d

This is why F16 talks were paused until F-35 is resolved. The entire bilateral relationship is frozen in 2019. Nothing has changed.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 14d

F16 was paused (on the request of Ankara) because RTE wants the F-35. He wants the F-35 for regional prestige and to keep up with/ Greece/Israel and b/c of lost cash on the contract abrogation stemming from S400. Best case is Tr compromises on S-400 and can "buy" the F35. But cannot also afford F16

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 14d

US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...

Turkey may drop US F-16 purchase in favour of acquiring jet engines

Ankara could buy parts instead of new aircraft in bid to accelerate fifth-generation Kaan warplane project

www.middleeasteye.net

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

We are quite proud of this @fpri.bsky.social

Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 15d

Exciting news! The Ties that Bind is back for a second season! Read more on this season's focus, #NATO Allies in Action, on Substack! buff.ly/kafu7vT

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

And overflight of US/UK airbases: www.bbc.com/news/article...

Mystery drones seen over three US air bases in East Anglia

The United States Air Force says it is unclear if the "small unmanned aerial systems" were hostile.

www.bbc.com

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

Here is a similar instance in Germany, where drones overflew Rheimettal and Ramstein: www.france24.com/en/europe/20...

Unidentified drones seen over US military base, industrial site in Germany

Unidentified drones have been sighted flying over the US military's Ramstein Air Base in Germany and facilities belonging to German arms maker Rheinmetall, German magazine Der Speigel reported on Frid...

www.france24.com

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

I'll just add that airport sightings are often fraught, with mixed reporting. The US has a single database. Don't know about the EU. But "large drones" need not be anything outside of the personal hobby class.

Good example is what happened in both Germany and in the UK at Lakenheath.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

I mean that is the story of the Cold War. People should familiarize themselves with how many times the two sides did shoot the other down. Mostly USSR shooting down US/NATO kit.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

The US is hamstrung in its response b/c of competing authorities, the potential danger to civilians, and even Article IV constitutional protections (jamming a drone is considered an illegal wiretapping in certain instances). I imagine EU has similar issues; www.fpri.org/article/2025...

Small Drones, Big Problems: Managing the Unmanned Threat to the Homeland - Foreign Policy Research Institute

“There is perhaps no better example of the rapidly evolving strategic environment than the emergence of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) as a threat to

www.fpri.org

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

We @fpri.bsky.social just finished a large study on drone incursions in the US. Most are accidents. Yet, proliferation of UAS has created an exploitable environment for malign actors seeking to conduct close target reconnaissance, or potentially even kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

That was different context. I think comparing NATO Air Policing mission in countries bordering Russia w/ the extreme deficits EU nations face in defense vs a Su-24 shoot down in Syria w/ mixed outcomes is just apples to oranges and extreme fallacy.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

The Russians and Americans would fight a lot over Syria independent of anything Turkey was doing. 2017 was a particularly feisty year. Many near misses.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 15d

No they got more aggressive because Turkey shot down their jet.

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