Aaron Strauss
@aaronstrauss.bsky.social
Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper
Addendum: this should have said "Day 5" in the first post. I can run multivariate regressions with clustered standard errors, but can't count.
Also, on the other side, one way Rs counter stereotypes is by speaking spanish in ads, even if it sounds bad--eg, Rick Scott
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UU...
Also, on the other side, one way Rs counter stereotypes is by speaking spanish in ads, even if it sounds bad--eg, Rick Scott
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UU...
February 11, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Addendum: this should have said "Day 5" in the first post. I can run multivariate regressions with clustered standard errors, but can't count.
Also, on the other side, one way Rs counter stereotypes is by speaking spanish in ads, even if it sounds bad--eg, Rick Scott
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UU...
Also, on the other side, one way Rs counter stereotypes is by speaking spanish in ads, even if it sounds bad--eg, Rick Scott
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UU...
100%. I wish he could run for president. (He was born in Uganda.)
Laser focus on #1 issue ✅
Sensible re-positioning on non-econ issues ✅
Able to garner attention ✅
I hope AOC is taking notes :)
Laser focus on #1 issue ✅
Sensible re-positioning on non-econ issues ✅
Able to garner attention ✅
I hope AOC is taking notes :)
February 11, 2026 at 1:19 PM
100%. I wish he could run for president. (He was born in Uganda.)
Laser focus on #1 issue ✅
Sensible re-positioning on non-econ issues ✅
Able to garner attention ✅
I hope AOC is taking notes :)
Laser focus on #1 issue ✅
Sensible re-positioning on non-econ issues ✅
Able to garner attention ✅
I hope AOC is taking notes :)
So, campaigns: Listen to your voters. And stay focused on your issues/campaign strategy. It's noisy out there, but you can break through, on message.
Link again: www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
h/t @charlotteeffect.bsky.social @adamjentleson.bsky.social @danielledeis.bsky.social
Link again: www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
h/t @charlotteeffect.bsky.social @adamjentleson.bsky.social @danielledeis.bsky.social
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
So, campaigns: Listen to your voters. And stay focused on your issues/campaign strategy. It's noisy out there, but you can break through, on message.
Link again: www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
h/t @charlotteeffect.bsky.social @adamjentleson.bsky.social @danielledeis.bsky.social
Link again: www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
h/t @charlotteeffect.bsky.social @adamjentleson.bsky.social @danielledeis.bsky.social
And while very few candidates are as talented as Mamdani, his campaign truly shows us the way.
Taylor Rehmet in TX for instance, flipped his seat (15-pt win!)--in the midst of the (worthy) immigration fight, Rehmet kept his message to costs & education
www.dallasnews.com/news/politic...
Taylor Rehmet in TX for instance, flipped his seat (15-pt win!)--in the midst of the (worthy) immigration fight, Rehmet kept his message to costs & education
www.dallasnews.com/news/politic...
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
And while very few candidates are as talented as Mamdani, his campaign truly shows us the way.
Taylor Rehmet in TX for instance, flipped his seat (15-pt win!)--in the midst of the (worthy) immigration fight, Rehmet kept his message to costs & education
www.dallasnews.com/news/politic...
Taylor Rehmet in TX for instance, flipped his seat (15-pt win!)--in the midst of the (worthy) immigration fight, Rehmet kept his message to costs & education
www.dallasnews.com/news/politic...
And that might seem obvious, but in this fractured media environment (esp with the death of local media) it's not.
eg, @gelliottmorris.com wrote "Hopefully, the point here is obvious now. Democrats do not control how voters perceive them."
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
eg, @gelliottmorris.com wrote "Hopefully, the point here is obvious now. Democrats do not control how voters perceive them."
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
And that might seem obvious, but in this fractured media environment (esp with the death of local media) it's not.
eg, @gelliottmorris.com wrote "Hopefully, the point here is obvious now. Democrats do not control how voters perceive them."
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
eg, @gelliottmorris.com wrote "Hopefully, the point here is obvious now. Democrats do not control how voters perceive them."
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
It's impossible to know whether Mamdani "over-performed" (it wasn't a D v R race), but he absolutely answered one outstanding question in the campaign strategy debate.
Namely, yes, campaigns can control what people think about them. Check out the Mamdani & Cuomo word clouds.
Namely, yes, campaigns can control what people think about them. Check out the Mamdani & Cuomo word clouds.
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
It's impossible to know whether Mamdani "over-performed" (it wasn't a D v R race), but he absolutely answered one outstanding question in the campaign strategy debate.
Namely, yes, campaigns can control what people think about them. Check out the Mamdani & Cuomo word clouds.
Namely, yes, campaigns can control what people think about them. Check out the Mamdani & Cuomo word clouds.
Did it work? @searchlightinst.bsky.social ran a survey right around Election Day to see how differently voters perceived Mamdani than the Dem party writ large.
And the divide was a gulf, particularly on NYC voters' #1 issue of housing. 71% said it a Mamdani focus; just 31% said same of Dem Party
And the divide was a gulf, particularly on NYC voters' #1 issue of housing. 71% said it a Mamdani focus; just 31% said same of Dem Party
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Did it work? @searchlightinst.bsky.social ran a survey right around Election Day to see how differently voters perceived Mamdani than the Dem party writ large.
And the divide was a gulf, particularly on NYC voters' #1 issue of housing. 71% said it a Mamdani focus; just 31% said same of Dem Party
And the divide was a gulf, particularly on NYC voters' #1 issue of housing. 71% said it a Mamdani focus; just 31% said same of Dem Party
And as part of this strategy, he shifted his stances on cultural issues (broadly defined) *in service of* maintaining his focus on costs. The campaign realized that any day they were talking about something _other_ than affordability, they were losing votes
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
And as part of this strategy, he shifted his stances on cultural issues (broadly defined) *in service of* maintaining his focus on costs. The campaign realized that any day they were talking about something _other_ than affordability, they were losing votes
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
As is well-documented, Mamdani stayed "laser focused" on affordability throughout the campaign.
Great example: Jon Stewart asks about disorder and Mamdani says "public safety is the prerequisite for the affordability agenda."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2_c...
Great example: Jon Stewart asks about disorder and Mamdani says "public safety is the prerequisite for the affordability agenda."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2_c...
Zohran Mamdani - Reimagining NYC Through Safety and Affordability | The Daily Show
YouTube video by The Daily Show
www.youtube.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
As is well-documented, Mamdani stayed "laser focused" on affordability throughout the campaign.
Great example: Jon Stewart asks about disorder and Mamdani says "public safety is the prerequisite for the affordability agenda."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2_c...
Great example: Jon Stewart asks about disorder and Mamdani says "public safety is the prerequisite for the affordability agenda."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2_c...
Mamdani came right out the gate (in January!) with this fantastic video on "Halalflation". It both zeroed in on voters' top priority & really leaned into Ezra Klein's formulation of:
Curiosity + Conflict = Attention
Even if you've seen it, it's worth another watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
Curiosity + Conflict = Attention
Even if you've seen it, it's worth another watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
NYC is Suffering from Halalflation
YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC
www.youtube.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Mamdani came right out the gate (in January!) with this fantastic video on "Halalflation". It both zeroed in on voters' top priority & really leaned into Ezra Klein's formulation of:
Curiosity + Conflict = Attention
Even if you've seen it, it's worth another watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
Curiosity + Conflict = Attention
Even if you've seen it, it's worth another watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
If you follow accounts like mine at all, I hope you know that voters' top priority is costs (& not democracy). Here's a (national) poll in October 2025, right before the NYC mayoral general election.
www.reuters.com/world/us/cos...
www.reuters.com/world/us/cos...
February 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
If you follow accounts like mine at all, I hope you know that voters' top priority is costs (& not democracy). Here's a (national) poll in October 2025, right before the NYC mayoral general election.
www.reuters.com/world/us/cos...
www.reuters.com/world/us/cos...
What's a good piece to read on Carney and immigration?
February 10, 2026 at 6:28 PM
What's a good piece to read on Carney and immigration?
Obama wasn't perceived as particularly liberal in the general at least -- which is the relevant datapoint here.
Also, in case helpful on the former, here's raw over-performance. No modeling, just spreadsheet data docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Also, in case helpful on the former, here's raw over-performance. No modeling, just spreadsheet data docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
February 10, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Obama wasn't perceived as particularly liberal in the general at least -- which is the relevant datapoint here.
Also, in case helpful on the former, here's raw over-performance. No modeling, just spreadsheet data docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Also, in case helpful on the former, here's raw over-performance. No modeling, just spreadsheet data docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
It's an interesting thought, but the evidence doesn't bear it out. Justice Dems under-perform.
I hear you on Obama's youth, charisma etc, but his stances (marriage equality, energy) were definitely not left-of-modal-Dem in '08.
Agree that youth/new-ness can help.
I hear you on Obama's youth, charisma etc, but his stances (marriage equality, energy) were definitely not left-of-modal-Dem in '08.
Agree that youth/new-ness can help.
Achen, Bartels, and Lenz are very much correct at the macro level. The majority of the time, candidate empahsizing issues leads to learning/sorting not persuasion. But, the minority of the time matters -- 4pp from better position taking can win some key elections.
ie, it's a micro, not macro effect
ie, it's a micro, not macro effect
February 10, 2026 at 2:36 PM
It's an interesting thought, but the evidence doesn't bear it out. Justice Dems under-perform.
I hear you on Obama's youth, charisma etc, but his stances (marriage equality, energy) were definitely not left-of-modal-Dem in '08.
Agree that youth/new-ness can help.
I hear you on Obama's youth, charisma etc, but his stances (marriage equality, energy) were definitely not left-of-modal-Dem in '08.
Agree that youth/new-ness can help.
Overall: if Democrats want to win independents to secure victory in tough districts, they have to persuade voters who have negative stereotypes about the party.
So these candidates need to signal that they aren't "your usual Democrat". Position-taking is one way, but not the only way.
So these candidates need to signal that they aren't "your usual Democrat". Position-taking is one way, but not the only way.
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Overall: if Democrats want to win independents to secure victory in tough districts, they have to persuade voters who have negative stereotypes about the party.
So these candidates need to signal that they aren't "your usual Democrat". Position-taking is one way, but not the only way.
So these candidates need to signal that they aren't "your usual Democrat". Position-taking is one way, but not the only way.
And it doesn't have to be an issue at all! This famous Kander ad has Kander advocating for the standard Dem position (background checks) but clearly goes against type.
www.washingtonpost.com/video/politi...
www.washingtonpost.com/video/politi...
Jason Kander: 'Background Checks' | Campaign 2016
A new ad released by Missouri Democrat Jason Kander shows the senatorial candidate piecing together a firearm and then challenging Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) to do the same.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
And it doesn't have to be an issue at all! This famous Kander ad has Kander advocating for the standard Dem position (background checks) but clearly goes against type.
www.washingtonpost.com/video/politi...
www.washingtonpost.com/video/politi...
But, it doesn't *have* to a be a left-right axis issue; it could be local. See Whitmer and "Fix the Damn Roads" in 2018 www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHZh...
Gretchen Whitmer - Fix The Roads
YouTube video by Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics
www.youtube.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
But, it doesn't *have* to a be a left-right axis issue; it could be local. See Whitmer and "Fix the Damn Roads" in 2018 www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHZh...
That said, 98% of the time, our preferred candidates are Dems. So, how to shake the stereotype in tough races? Well, one way is to take an unexpected issue position, like Gallego did on the border in 2024 www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWMt...
What Arizona Really Needs | Gallego for Arizona
YouTube video by Sen. Ruben Gallego
www.youtube.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
That said, 98% of the time, our preferred candidates are Dems. So, how to shake the stereotype in tough races? Well, one way is to take an unexpected issue position, like Gallego did on the border in 2024 www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWMt...
And I think I know why: because when voters hear a Dem candidate promoting progressive econ message, that's true to type. That candidate is now seen as a "stereotypical Dem", or worse a "stereotypical ideologue".
But independent candidates don't carry that baggage and have more freedom of message.
But independent candidates don't carry that baggage and have more freedom of message.
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
And I think I know why: because when voters hear a Dem candidate promoting progressive econ message, that's true to type. That candidate is now seen as a "stereotypical Dem", or worse a "stereotypical ideologue".
But independent candidates don't carry that baggage and have more freedom of message.
But independent candidates don't carry that baggage and have more freedom of message.
But that's not the interesting part. Here's the twist: the CWCP randomized the *party* of the candidate delivering the message: it would either be a Dem or an independent candidate.
And the progressive message (lower line) does MUCH better coming from the indie
And the progressive message (lower line) does MUCH better coming from the indie
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
But that's not the interesting part. Here's the twist: the CWCP randomized the *party* of the candidate delivering the message: it would either be a Dem or an independent candidate.
And the progressive message (lower line) does MUCH better coming from the indie
And the progressive message (lower line) does MUCH better coming from the indie
First, the topline result: Growth (message C) beats out Regulation (message B) via a huge lead among non-college voters
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
First, the topline result: Growth (message C) beats out Regulation (message B) via a huge lead among non-college voters
And the Working Class Project did an RCT of this! They compare these two messages, asking voters if they would support a candidate who had that message.
Message B: progressive econ via gov't reg
Message C: more growth-oriented
Message B: progressive econ via gov't reg
Message C: more growth-oriented
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
And the Working Class Project did an RCT of this! They compare these two messages, asking voters if they would support a candidate who had that message.
Message B: progressive econ via gov't reg
Message C: more growth-oriented
Message B: progressive econ via gov't reg
Message C: more growth-oriented
The answer, in short: is that the Dem party as a whole is not viewed favorably by independents. (And it hasn't for a while, so this isn't a "Dems are weak under Trump 2.0" effect.)
It behooves candidates in tough districts to run against this brand.
It behooves candidates in tough districts to run against this brand.
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
The answer, in short: is that the Dem party as a whole is not viewed favorably by independents. (And it hasn't for a while, so this isn't a "Dems are weak under Trump 2.0" effect.)
It behooves candidates in tough districts to run against this brand.
It behooves candidates in tough districts to run against this brand.