Adam Harstad
@adamharstad.bsky.social
Eschews obfuscation. Espouses elucidation. Writes about football. Kisses and tells.
Even ignoring incentives, if you’re working in good faith and reach an “everything we know is wrong” conclusion, you should assume the most likely explanation (by some orders of magnitude) is you fucked up the analysis.
It’s the old Bayes “false positive” problem. tomrocksmaths.com/2021/08/31/b...
It’s the old Bayes “false positive” problem. tomrocksmaths.com/2021/08/31/b...
Bayes’ Theorem and Disease Testing
So, you’ve gone to the doctor with some very strange symptoms. Your GP is completely stumped, and they decide to give you a few tests for very rare diseases that fit your symptoms. A week later you…
tomrocksmaths.com
May 12, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Even ignoring incentives, if you’re working in good faith and reach an “everything we know is wrong” conclusion, you should assume the most likely explanation (by some orders of magnitude) is you fucked up the analysis.
It’s the old Bayes “false positive” problem. tomrocksmaths.com/2021/08/31/b...
It’s the old Bayes “false positive” problem. tomrocksmaths.com/2021/08/31/b...
I gotta say any time a sports analytics conference has to block the *checks notes* NFL’s director of data and analytics, one might have cause to question its commitment to the purported mission.
March 8, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I gotta say any time a sports analytics conference has to block the *checks notes* NFL’s director of data and analytics, one might have cause to question its commitment to the purported mission.
Reposted by Adam Harstad
This is mine, happy to share - allybhoy.wordpress.com/earlston-fan...
EARLSTON FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE- OUR CONSTITUTION
1.0 LEAGUE OVERVIEW Welcome to EFFL, the Earlston Fantasy Football League. This is a 12-team league formed in 2013 in the Red Lion Pub (Earlston) by Chris Powell and Alastair Reid. The league is de…
allybhoy.wordpress.com
December 14, 2024 at 8:41 AM
This is mine, happy to share - allybhoy.wordpress.com/earlston-fan...
This is the constitution in my oldest dynasty league. It wouldn’t work for everyone, but it works well for us. docs.google.com/document/d/1...
December 13, 2024 at 8:59 PM
(As it is, I just peek in every few days to see if I missed any replies.)
December 11, 2024 at 6:03 PM
(As it is, I just peek in every few days to see if I missed any replies.)
It’s a positive step, but if they really want me here more they’ll allow me to turn off notifications for likes and follows but keep them for mentions. Then I’ll be instantly reachable.
December 11, 2024 at 6:02 PM
It’s a positive step, but if they really want me here more they’ll allow me to turn off notifications for likes and follows but keep them for mentions. Then I’ll be instantly reachable.
The followers are worse, especially the week after the election. Just non-stop pinging. I don't even know how many people follow me on Bird App, and I would much rather not know how many follow me on Butterfly App, too. I just want to do what I do and let the people who want to read it read it.
December 4, 2024 at 4:35 PM
The followers are worse, especially the week after the election. Just non-stop pinging. I don't even know how many people follow me on Bird App, and I would much rather not know how many follow me on Butterfly App, too. I just want to do what I do and let the people who want to read it read it.
Reposted by Adam Harstad
The best reflection on Jim Tyrer — and broadly, the nature of football, fandom and art/artist separations — comes from NFL researcher Adam Harstad, who wrote this in 2021 for my friend Bryan Frye's "Grand List" project.
www.footballperspective.com/the-grand-li...
www.footballperspective.com/the-grand-li...
December 4, 2024 at 3:59 PM
The best reflection on Jim Tyrer — and broadly, the nature of football, fandom and art/artist separations — comes from NFL researcher Adam Harstad, who wrote this in 2021 for my friend Bryan Frye's "Grand List" project.
www.footballperspective.com/the-grand-li...
www.footballperspective.com/the-grand-li...
I’m not *not* here. bsky.app/profile/adam...
I’m here! Sort of! Butterfly app won’t let me turn on mention notifications without also turning on follow and like notifications, but follow and like notifications will make you miserable, so I have all notifications turned off! But I do log in every few days to check for mentions!
December 2, 2024 at 8:32 PM
I’m not *not* here. bsky.app/profile/adam...
The rules for how to score laterals weren’t standardized in 1944, so Zimmerman frequently doesn’t show up with the receiving TD, but the play was identical to last night’s— completion, then lateral back to the QB— so that’s how it’d be scored today.
December 2, 2024 at 3:23 PM
The rules for how to score laterals weren’t standardized in 1944, so Zimmerman frequently doesn’t show up with the receiving TD, but the play was identical to last night’s— completion, then lateral back to the QB— so that’s how it’d be scored today.
It’s the fifth time a QB had a passing TD to himself, but only the third time he didn’t also record a reception.
2018 Marcus Mariota and 1997 Brad Johnson both caught tipped balls, so they got the reception.
Allen, 1960 Frank Ryan, and 1944 Roy Zimmerman received laterals, so no reception.
2018 Marcus Mariota and 1997 Brad Johnson both caught tipped balls, so they got the reception.
Allen, 1960 Frank Ryan, and 1944 Roy Zimmerman received laterals, so no reception.
December 2, 2024 at 3:21 PM
It’s the fifth time a QB had a passing TD to himself, but only the third time he didn’t also record a reception.
2018 Marcus Mariota and 1997 Brad Johnson both caught tipped balls, so they got the reception.
Allen, 1960 Frank Ryan, and 1944 Roy Zimmerman received laterals, so no reception.
2018 Marcus Mariota and 1997 Brad Johnson both caught tipped balls, so they got the reception.
Allen, 1960 Frank Ryan, and 1944 Roy Zimmerman received laterals, so no reception.
Here’s a fun box score for you in the meantime!
December 2, 2024 at 3:17 PM
Here’s a fun box score for you in the meantime!
I’m here! Sort of! Butterfly app won’t let me turn on mention notifications without also turning on follow and like notifications, but follow and like notifications will make you miserable, so I have all notifications turned off! But I do log in every few days to check for mentions!
December 2, 2024 at 3:16 PM
I’m here! Sort of! Butterfly app won’t let me turn on mention notifications without also turning on follow and like notifications, but follow and like notifications will make you miserable, so I have all notifications turned off! But I do log in every few days to check for mentions!
Being completely honest, I kind of thought I did.
November 29, 2024 at 4:57 PM
Being completely honest, I kind of thought I did.
I haven't been not here for more than a year.
November 17, 2024 at 9:21 PM
I haven't been not here for more than a year.
Thanks, buddy! Wouldn’t necessarily say I’m “here” per se, though. bsky.app/profile/adam...
I wouldn’t say I’m here (except insofar as I’ve “been here” for over a year) so much as I’m exploring how much overhead it would be to maintain a second point of contact.
Keeping good notifications from getting drowned out by bad ones would help!
Keeping good notifications from getting drowned out by bad ones would help!
November 17, 2024 at 4:00 PM
Thanks, buddy! Wouldn’t necessarily say I’m “here” per se, though. bsky.app/profile/adam...
Closest I’ve gotten to harassment over the last month was when I said I’m bored by a hyperfocus on orthodoxy over orthorpaxy (focusing on one’s beliefs over their actions) and a guy wanted to go on a deep dive on my belief that actions are more important than beliefs.
Not especially Nazi-adjacent.
Not especially Nazi-adjacent.
November 17, 2024 at 2:44 AM
Closest I’ve gotten to harassment over the last month was when I said I’m bored by a hyperfocus on orthodoxy over orthorpaxy (focusing on one’s beliefs over their actions) and a guy wanted to go on a deep dive on my belief that actions are more important than beliefs.
Not especially Nazi-adjacent.
Not especially Nazi-adjacent.
Be surprised, then, I guess; I am extraordinarily rarely harassed over there.
Write for the audience you want because you get the audience you write for.
Write for the audience you want because you get the audience you write for.
November 17, 2024 at 2:40 AM
Be surprised, then, I guess; I am extraordinarily rarely harassed over there.
Write for the audience you want because you get the audience you write for.
Write for the audience you want because you get the audience you write for.
FWIW, it seems to be doing that now. I tried for a couple hours to find my own tweets in my timeline to no avail, but they’re there now, so huzzah!
November 16, 2024 at 10:39 PM
FWIW, it seems to be doing that now. I tried for a couple hours to find my own tweets in my timeline to no avail, but they’re there now, so huzzah!