Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
December 10, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
And here is the crux of it.
The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond.
The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond.
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
And here is the crux of it.
The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond.
The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond.
In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake.
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake.
We really didn’t deserve Lina
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
We really didn’t deserve Lina
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
Methodology for those interested:
March 10, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Methodology for those interested:
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
March 10, 2025 at 10:26 PM
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
Here are the 9 polls with out-of-field dates in the last 10 days
March 10, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Here are the 9 polls with out-of-field dates in the last 10 days
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative.
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
March 10, 2025 at 10:24 PM
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative.
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
March 10, 2025 at 5:12 PM
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
March 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
They managed to get out with their cats and what they could carry, but the rest is ashes
January 9, 2025 at 8:20 PM
They managed to get out with their cats and what they could carry, but the rest is ashes
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
January 9, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I mean what the fuck is this
December 7, 2024 at 7:52 PM
I mean what the fuck is this
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
December 7, 2024 at 7:50 PM
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT
December 6, 2024 at 10:32 PM
CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT
Very early pass at the 2026 House landscape
December 6, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Very early pass at the 2026 House landscape
You have got to be kidding me
December 6, 2024 at 8:05 PM
You have got to be kidding me