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Reposted by Alexander Graef

Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 12d

With some interesting nuggets:

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles

Fourteen months on, with a new U.S. administration in charge, officials in Berlin believe a Biden-era plan to send an Army unit with such arms is still on.

www.defensenews.com

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23d

5/5 Ever more cut off from the West and increasingly reliant on Russia, such practices also reflect an effort to safeguard sovereignty while securing U.S. buy-in. The fact that Moscow has thus far refrained from blocking such actions though is noteworthy europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...

Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures

Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ...

europeanleadershipnetwork.org

Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23d

4/5 The prominent coverage by Belarusian state media of the participation of U.S. representatives now, coupled with the MFA’s emphasis on “standing shoulder to shoulder” and its claim that “dialogue speaks louder than confrontation,” stresses the precarious position of Belarus

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23d

3/5 Formally though, this is also the case for Zapad. More importantly, however, “observations” only refer to the possibility of being present at a single stage, at one training ground, even though the exercise typically encompasses over a dozen sites with related activities.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23d

2/5 At the time Russia declared that this step responded to NATO not inviting Russian observers to Steadfast defender 2021. Yet, NATO was not obliged to invite observers under the Vienna Document because it did not reach the necessary thresholds.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · 23d

The US presence at #Zapad in Belarus is not unexpected, given the mini-rapprochement between both states in recent months. In 2021, the US, along a couple of more states were also invited by #Belarus, though #Russia did not invite #NATO states. 1/5
www.reuters.com/world/europe...

US military officers observe Russia-Belarus war games as Trump gets closer to Minsk

U.S. military officers observed joint war games between Russia and Belarus on Monday for the first time since Moscow used Belarus as a launchpad to enter Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump deepens ties with Moscow's closest ally.

www.reuters.com

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Sep 9

2/2 "Inviting observers to major exercises, for example, can bolster deterrence by showcasing capabilities and providing another source of information to cross check insights collected by intelligence."

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Sep 9

"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help" 1/2

europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...

Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures

Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ...

europeanleadershipnetwork.org

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Aug 31

Habe mit dem @derstandard.at über die strategische Lage in der Ukraine gesprochen: 'Der möglich, zukünftige Einsatz von Systemen wie Flamingo setzt Moskau unter Druck, aber es ist auch klar, dass RU alles versuchen wird, diese Entwicklung präemptiv zu verhindern'
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...

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Reposted by Alexander Graef

Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · Aug 24

Presenting an early draft of a paper by @alxgraef.bsky.social and myself at EISA PEC.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Jul 12

Arms control has a bad image mainly because people conflate it with unilateral disarmament or frame it as the opposite of deterrence. The less they understand it, the more they fall for these fallacies.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Jul 6

Thanks James!

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Jul 2

Excited to join the European Leadership Network as Senior Policy Fellow for Russia–West relations in tense times, working to address escalation risks.

The European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · Jul 2

🎉 We are delighted to welcome Dr. Alexander Graef to @theeln.bsky.social as our Russia-West Senior Policy Fellow.

europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/alexa...

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Jul 1

Zum einen, weil diese durch den Krieg ausgedünnt sind. Zum anderen, weil, wie beschrieben, Russland dabei ist vor allem seine Landstreitkräfte umzubauen.

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Alexander Graef @alxgraef.bsky.social · Jun 30

Ja, aber das macht es nicht besser. Entscheidend ist hier die Entwicklung im Zeitverlauf. Die Mehrzahl der zukünftigen Zuwächse wird über 'Kontraktniki" geleistet werden. Das hat wiederum politische Gründe. Auch ein Grund, warum sich der Kreml bisher der 2 Jahresfrist verweigert.

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