I'm tempted to hustle over to a mall and start checking out tags.

I wonder if these types of labels serve as an information treatment for Americans.

In general, economic voting does not depend on accurate blame attributions - just people taking out grumpiness on incumbents. But does anything change if Trump voters connect higher prices to tariffs?

Matt, it genuinely really shaped how I thought about estimand selection. I quoted that tweet on my quant methods qualifying exam in grad school. 😂

Just dug up this banger of a @mattblackwell.bsky.social post to use in my instrumental variables slides.

Pumped to be teaching the next generation about choosing estimands based on identification assumptions. 😂🙏

Okay, follow-up on the students' first grades of the semester.

On the one hand: *So many* Calendly sign-ups.

On the other hand: it feels like a huge teaching win that one of my students told me this morning that they were disappointed in their grade, but also understood it based on my comments.

I was skeptical of Vancouver APSA.
But I just posted my first grades of the semester from JFK and maybe another country is the right place to be headed after giving some folks what could be their first-ever sub-A grades.

There is, unfortunately, a precedent of sorts. Trump sent in the National Guard to D.C. after Edward "Big Balls" Coristine was assaulted by some teenagers

Very, very bad stuff coming from leading right-wingers

Tom understands the assignment.

I have yet to find a way to incorporate the bear-skinning episode into my observational causal inference course, but I have until Monday.

(I checked first that none of my students could possibly have been the students involved in the original incident.)

For my political behavior writing seminar, I assigned a "pastiche op-ed," where the students have to use current events as the hook for an opinion column... I'm making them all use the bear.

I look forward to reading a lot of op-eds about hunting regulation written in the voice of Maureen Down.

Definitely! But maybe there is a question here about whether pre-reg has value prospectively (nudging researchers to do better research with thoughtful hypotheses) or just retrospectively (giving readers/reviewers the chance to see if a paper is good or bad).

John Oliver: "While get the appeal of thinking just one more concession, one more payoff might safeguard your independence or let you live to fight another day, it's worth asking at what point have you compromised so much that
the thing you're supposed to be defending is gone."

I'm mostly kidding, but there are in fact models for indoctrination in political science research! I once heard Don Green describe training graduate students as, essentially, creating disciples to spread the causal inference gospel across the globe.

Sometimes when I look at the state of research credibility innovations, I wonder if what we really need is a civic virtue for the scholarly community...

I am a HUGE pre-registration booster. But IMO this is the biggest problem with pre-reg (especially pre-reg without analysis plans): It's hackable if people pre-reg anything and everything.

Like I've heard people *brag* about having the foresight to pre-register a lot of hypotheses. Don't do that!

Is it too much to suggest a workshop or group brainstorm on generative AI, either in research or the classroom? I feel like all the best ideas and insights I've heard on the topic have just come from chatting with colleagues in the discipline!

OMG this is so cool!

An underrated part of being from Indiana is being duty-bound to love all things Chicago.

I mean, I like Chicago's special take on pizza, why not Chicago's special take on digestifs?

The bartender at the JAWS happy hour last MPSA tried to convince me to order Malort. And I kind of wimped out. But now I'm curious!

I refuse to give em dashes to the AI