Andrew Kosenko
@andrewkosenko.bsky.social
1.2K followers 580 following 420 posts
Will eventually grow up. Perpetually confused. Behavioral and information economics, experiments, and learning/memory. Lately, also 🇺🇦 topics Kharkivite/New Yorker andrewkosenko.com
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andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Massive 🇷🇺 combined missile/drone strike on 🇺🇦 tonight.

Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.

Russia is a terror state.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Three (3) conferences in eight (8) days.

Negative returns are real.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Intrusion of 🇷🇺 drones into 🇵🇱 shows difficulties 🇺🇦 (recently - 800 🇷🇺 drones into 🇺🇦) is facing

>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).

No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Otherwise, what will it take?!?!

A "stray" Russian bomber over Paris or London?!

No amount of minimizing Russia's actions will decrease their severity.

Seize their assets.

It's one of the few remaining nonviolent but powerful tools.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Poland and NATO will have to respond.

And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.

Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Putin likes testing new leaders.

He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.

No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Truly bizarre article, under the rubric of "analysis"

The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...

& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")

Much analysis. Such insight.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
Putin’s Message to Ukraine, Europe and Trump: I Won’t Back Down
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Andrew Kosenko
mylovanov.bsky.social
The prime minister of Ukraine in the government building today. This is one floor above her office.

Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Russian GPS jamming over the Baltic closed a Finnish airport for a month

Russia was behind a plot to put explosives on cargo planes from 🇪🇺 to North America

DHL cargo plane crashed, due to Russian GPS interference

Ignoring Putin and pretending things aren't happening will make things worse.

2/2
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
“The whole airport area GPS went dark"

Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.

This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.

1/n

www.ft.com/content/3c33...
Ursula von der Leyen’s plane hit by suspected Russian GPS interference
Officials suspect jamming operation forced jet carrying European Commission president to land in Bulgaria using paper maps
www.ft.com
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
To finally, decisively end 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 we need

1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory

2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation

3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals

Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
"Tom Clancy's The Idiot"
andyrichter.co
Ruin a book by adding “Tom Clancy’s” to the title

“Tom Clancy’s Juggs”
christianfinnegan.bsky.social
Ruin a book by adding “Tom Clancy’s” to the title

Tom Clancy’s Unbearable Lightness of Being
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Signed.

Please share!
tderyugina.bsky.social
Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process.

There's still time to sign! And please share.

#EconSky

docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open letter
Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...
docs.google.com
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Have just unironically used the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem for the first time (i.e. outside of a class, and not when reading other people's papers)

Math is magic
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
FFS

Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.

Obama had the "reset"

Trump 1 was all over him

Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets)

Trump 2 is still dancing with him

www.state.gov/releases/202...
Reposted by Andrew Kosenko
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
How many times does this have to happen for an American president to realize the gravity of the threat to 🇺🇸 from Russia?

Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.

Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Russia Is Suspected to Be Behind Breach of Federal Court Filing System
www.nytimes.com
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Major "peace in our time" vibes
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
The significance of a 🇺🇦 withdrawal from Donbas is that there are *massive* defensive fortification lines there. Russia has not been able to break through them.

This proposal would just... give it all to the invader without a shot.

🇷🇺 will then be within a striking shot of Kharkiv and Dnipro.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
The rest of the plan is equally horrendous.

First, 🇺🇦 withdraws from its land.

And only then will there be another "final" peace plan, negotiated by Trump and Putin, that will be presented to Zelensky.

Russia gives up nothing, Ukraine everything.

Madness.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Zelensky is already being cast as recalcitrant, uncompromising. Putin's exploitation of Trump's desire for any deal is working.

And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?!

Gee, what a swap.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
Zelensky Rejects Ceding Territory to Russia After Trump Suggests a Land Swap
www.nytimes.com
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
And keep in mind: an arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court for Putin, for the crime of abduction of tens of thousands of 🇺🇦 children

President Trump will be meeting with a psychopath criminal.
andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Furthermore, today was Trump's deadline for a deal, or Russia would have to face sanctions.

But we have no deal, and no sanctions.