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antikeburg.bsky.social
Michael🇪🇺
@antikeburg.bsky.social
62 followers 290 following 2 posts
17 | European, Feminist and a Social liberalist | ENFP | #NoAfD | F1 & Football fan | @voltdeutschland | 🇺🇦
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Reposted by Michael🇪🇺
meidastouch.com
Why do people in red states like Oklahoma consistently vote against their own interests and keep electing people who are causing their suffering?

It’s because of what we refer to as the authoritarian loop.

Here’s how it works:
Exposing Trump and Defeating the Authoritarian Loop
Written by Ben Meiselas
www.meidasplus.com
November 17, 2024 at 10:47 PM
Reposted by Michael🇪🇺
owasow.bsky.social
New study looks at protests against far right in 2002 French elections. Finds “larger protests reduced number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing number of votes for the incumbent president, Chirac.” Also finds “effect worked
through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
Media, Spillovers, and Social Norms: The Electoral Impact of Anti-Far Right Protests in the 2002 French Election* Short title: Anti-Far Right Protests By Nicolas Lagios†, Pierre-Guillaume Méon‡, Ilan Tojerow§ We study the electoral impact of protesting against the far right by investigating the demonstrations held during the 2002 French presidential elections against far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. Instrumenting rally attendance with rainfall while factoring in that some municipalities never host protests, we find that larger protests reduced the number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing the number of votes for the incumbent president, Jacques Chirac. We find that the effect spread out beyond the municipalities that hosted protests and worked through media exposure. Using survey data, we show that protests reduced support for the policies advocated by Le Pen. Moreover, the positive effect on voting for Chirac resulted from right-wing voters switching from Le Pen to Chirac and left-wing voters not casting a blank ballot, implying that some voters voted expressively. Finally, we show that protests reduced the social desirability of voting for Le Pen. The figure reports the location and the size of the protests held on May 1, 2002, against Jean-Marie Le Pen. The figure shows a map of France with scattered dots across the country that vary in size in proportion to the size of the protest events. Table 2 shows the Baseline Results for The Impact of Protests on Voting Outcomes. Each column is devoted to a different electoral outcome: Specifically, the vote share of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the vote share of Jacques Chirac, and the share of abstentions and blank and invalid ballots. larger protests reduced the far-right candidate’s vote share. More precisely, a 0.1 percentage point increase in the share of the population protesting in a municipality decreased by 2.2 percentage points the vote share of Jean-Marie Le Pen in that municipality. In Column (2), the dependent variable is the vote share for Jacques Chirac. Here, the number of participants exhibits a positive coefficient that is statistically significant at the five- percent level in all specifications. Accordingly, a larger number of participants in the May 1 protests increased the share and the number of voters who cast a ballot for the right of centre candidate. The magnitude of the effect is again substantial without being implausibly large: A 0.1 percentage point increase in the share of the population protesting in a municipality resulted in a 4.5 percentage points increase in Jacques Chirac’s vote share. This means that in the absence of protests, Jacques Chirac would have lost 2.3 points in the second round. Finally, Column (3) suggests that protests also affected the share of abstentions and blank and invalid ballots. The number of participants exhibits a negative coefficient statistically significant at the five-percent level, implying that a 0.1 percentage point increase in the share of the population protesting reduced the share of abstentions and blank and invalid ballots by 2.3 percentage points. In the absence of protests, the share of abstentions and blank and invalid ballots would have therefore been 0.8 point higher. Figure 4 reports the estimated marginal effect of the number of participants on the agreement of respondents with the policies sponsored by Jean-Marie Le Pen: immigration, security, traditional values, criticism of the political class, the abolition of the income tax, and an exit of France from the EU. The marginal effect is always negative and statistically significant at standard levels. We also looked at two more specific measures of the position of respondents on immigration, which was the theme on which Jean-Marie Le Pen was the most salient. Specifically, respondents were asked their level of agreement with the following two statements: “there are too many immigrants” and “immigrants enrich a culture”. Here, Jean-Marie Le Pen was not explicitly mentioned. We observe that respondents in municipalities that experienced larger protests were less likely to agree with the statement that there are too many immigrants and more likely to agree with the statement that immigrants enrich a culture. This series of findings is consistent with the models of Lohmann (1994) and Battaglini (2017) that argue that protests can raise public awareness around the issues at stake. Larger protests against Jean-Marie Le Pen might have reduced voters’ support for his policies by signalling the negative issues associated with those policies, thereby decreasing the incentive to vote for the far-right candidate. Again, we cannot rule out that protests triggered a social desirability bias on specific policies even if an exit from the EU or a critique of the political class were sponsored by other candidates unrelated to and less stigmatized than Jean-Marie Le Pen. In any case, we return to social desirability in Section 7.3.
November 16, 2024 at 11:35 PM
antikeburg.bsky.social
Biden allowed ATACMS? Good, Scholz you need to send Taurus‼️
November 17, 2024 at 7:36 PM