Omar Wasow
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owasow.bsky.social
Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
37K followers 3.8K following 3.1K posts
Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding http://j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks http://j.mp/bundle-of
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owasow.bsky.social
Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · Feb 6
I’ve been studying civil rights protests for 20 years. With new mobilization against Trump’s agenda, I’m sharing a thread summarizing my research on how nonviolent & violent actions by 1960s activists and police influenced media, elites, public opinion & voters. 1/ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Article title: Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting Article Abstract How do stigmatized minorities advance agendas when confronted with hostile majorities? Elite theories of influence posit marginal groups exert little power. I propose the concept of agenda seeding to describe how activists use methods like disruption to capture the attention of media and overcome political asymmetries. Further, I hypothesize protest tactics influence how news organizations frame demands. Evaluating black-led protests between 1960 and 1972, I find nonviolent activism, particularly when met with state or vigilante repression, drove media coverage, framing, congressional speech, and public opinion on civil rights. Counties proximate to nonviolent protests saw presidential Democratic vote share increase 1.6–2.5%. Protester-initiated violence, by contrast, helped move news agendas, frames, elite discourse, and public concern toward “social control.” In 1968, using rainfall as an instrument, I find violent protests likely caused a 1.5–7.9% shift among whites toward Republicans and tipped the election. Elites may dominate political communication but hold no monopoly.
Reposted by Omar Wasow
kevinmkruse.bsky.social
They’re good, people! Give them some support!
liberalcurrents.com Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 1d
Larger media outlets have wavered since the first Trump term, but we've remained steadfast in our categorical rejection of MAGA in all its aspects and our affirmation of liberal democracy and the principles that it rests on.

In the second Trump term, we are growing: www.gofundme.com/f/the-libera...
“Liberal Currents is raising funds to continue its work promoting a principled, humane liberalism: one that refuses to pick and choose whose freedom matters.” —Sharon Kuruvilla
November 25, 2025 at 2:08 AM
owasow.bsky.social
“Experimental data from largest online survey of Irish Americans reveal learning about African Americans with Irish ancestry reduces prejudice among white Irish Americans who identify with Irish American identity, and effects are mostly driven by Republicans…” www.jasmineenglish.net/uploads/1/4/...
Title page) Title page with centered serif text reading “Close Race: Harnessing Multiracialism to Reduce Racial Prejudice*”. Below is the author name “Jasmine English†” and below that the date “October 31, 2025”, all centered with white background. Screenshot of the paper’s abstract in serif font. The text explains that multiracial populations are the fastest growing in the U.S., and the paper examines how learning about African Americans with Irish ancestry influences racial attitudes among white Irish Americans. It reports experimental findings showing that such information reduces racial prejudice, especially among Republicans and those with higher baseline prejudice, and suggests multiracialism may reduce perceived racial distance. Figure 1: Racial Resentment) Coefficient plot titled “Treatment Effects: Racial Resentment.” The x-axis is Coefficient Estimate with a dashed vertical zero line. Four rows correspond to Treat, TreatLinked, TreatClose, and Treat*Important. The interaction terms show larger negative estimates (around −0.05 to −0.18) than in Figure 2, indicating stronger reductions in racial resentment. Model estimates are color-coded and labeled in a legend at bottom left. Table 7: Reduced Racial Essentialism “I was actually very surprised, it’s a much larger percentage than I realized. I guess I’ve been raised that white people are much more likely to be Irish.” “I was really surprised. I honestly had no idea and just thought, like me, Irish is basically white.” “I am surprised, as I think of typical Irish Americans to be very white.” “I was surprised - I had no idea. Usually when I think “Irish” I think of very fair skin, red hair, and blue eyes (like my mom)” “I was surprised! The term African American makes me think their lineage would be purely African, but I suppose no one really has ancestry tied to one place and one place only.” “I was surprised as I believed that Irish people were overwhelmingly White. It makes me more course to know about how such a high percentage of African Americans came to have Irish ancestry.” “That is surprising to me. I always picture people with more fair skin being Irish.” “I was surprised, but once I thought about it made sense. Eventually all of us will have a little bit of all ancestries in us.” Notes: Open-ended responses that illustrate a shift away from racial essentialism among treated respondents.
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
owasow.bsky.social
Clever study assesses “whether same person is treated differently when their race is perceived differently.” Finds “same driver is likelier to be searched or arrested by police when they are perceived as Hispanic than when they are perceived as white.” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Testing for racial bias using inconsistent perceptions of race
A proposed test for racial bias assesses whether the same person is treated differently when their race is perceived differently.
www.science.org
November 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
owasow.bsky.social
“Culver City becomes first California city to allow six-story apartment buildings with just one staircase, a move to ease housing construction and affordability. Single staircases reclaim 7% of space for actual homes while creating wider units with better light—and fitting on smaller urban parcels.”
One California city’s idea to tackle the housing crisis: Take the stairs
Culver City becomes first California city to allow six-story apartment buildings with just one staircase, a bold move to ease housing construction and affordability.
www.latimes.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
owasow.bsky.social
New odd couple buddy film: Crush Hour
chrisgeidner.bsky.social Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 4d
Let’s be clear.

@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social got Trump so charmed that Trump posted two photos of the two of them with Franklin Roosevelt’s portrait behind them AND one of just Mamdani and FDR’s portrait.
Trump’s Truth social post Trump, Mamdani, and FDR. Trump, Mamdani, and FDR. Mamdani and FDR.
November 22, 2025 at 7:41 PM
owasow.bsky.social
Thread
violetbrown.bsky.social VioletBrown @violetbrown.bsky.social · 3d
I worked in a natural history museum where we had to listen to a loop of new age music (think pan pipes and whatnot) with nature sounds like blue whales and hawks and whatnot interspersed and it was HELL. Three years of this shit. I can still hear the hawk song in my nightmares
November 22, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
ence.bsky.social
We spent a year investigating billionaires for @washingtonpost.com.

We found: the wealthiest 100 Americans gave $1.1 billion to influence the 2024 elections — 140x more than they did in 2000. And almost all of that giving boosted Republicans.

washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
November 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
ryancbriggs.net
A student recently asked me for academic job market advice and I pulled up a slideshow from a few years ago. I don't think I've shared it, but it might be broadly useful. I think the advice almost entirely holds up.

First part is about my time on the job market
1/3
brief description of my experience and a joke xkcd about selection bias my hit rate on the job market in 2012 (low) my hit rate on the job market in 2013 (low, but got a TT job) my hit rate on the job market as an AP (3/7 offers)
November 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
adamweinstein.bsky.social
You say Mamdani is a socialist, then explain to me why he's flaunting his ownership of Donald Trump
November 21, 2025 at 8:50 PM
owasow.bsky.social
“Without 14th Amendment, various figures would not have gained U.S. citizenship…
— “Second lady *Usha Vance*, born to Indian immigrants”
— Marco Rubio, Cuban parents
— Kash Patel, Indian parents
— Mehmet Oz, Turkish parents
— Nikki Haley, Indian parents
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
twseal.bsky.social Thomas Seal @twseal.bsky.social · 4d
JD Vance shares some opinions on Canada:
November 21, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
dotanhaim.bsky.social
Really proud of our new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social!! @nicoravanilla.bsky.social @matthewjnanes.bsky.social

What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings?

For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 20, 2025 at 2:16 PM
owasow.bsky.social
Small study assigned older adults to control, 1x/week sprint interval training (SIT), or 2x/week SIT. After 8 weeks, found “significant improvements in blood glucose control, physical function and aerobic capacity in both training groups compared to control…”
media-site.carolbike.com/documents/Im...
The Impact of Sprint Interval Training Frequency on Blood Glucose Control and Physical Function of Older Adults Simon Adamson, Mykolas Kavaliauskas , Ross Lorimer and John Babraj Abstract: Exercise is a powerful tool for improving health in older adults, but the minimum frequency required is not known. This study sought to determine the effect of training frequency of sprint interval training (SIT) on health and physical function in older adults. Thirty-four (13 males and 21 females) older adults (age 65 ± 4 years) were recruited. Participants were allocated to a control group (CON n = 12) or a once- (n = 11) or twice- (n = 11) weekly sprint interval training (SIT) groups. The control group maintained daily activities; the SIT groups performed 8 weeks of once- or twice-weekly training sessions consisting of 6 s sprints. Metabolic health (oral glucose tolerance test), aerobic capacity (walk test) and physical function (get up and go test, sit to stand test) were determined before and after training. Following training, there were significant improvements in blood glucose control, physical function and aerobic capacity in both training groups compared to control, with changes larger than the smallest worthwhile change. There was a small to moderate effect for blood glucose (d= 0.43–0.80) and physical function (d= 0.43–0.69) and a trivial effect for aerobic capacity (d= 0.01) between the two training frequencies. Once a week training SIT is sufficient to produce health benefits. Therefore, the minimum time and frequency of exercise required is much lower than currently recommended.
November 20, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.

US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.

open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
owasow.bsky.social
“Fast-food prices at McDonald’s have risen so high that traffic from one of the industry’s core customer bases, low-income households, has dropped by double digits.” www.latimes.com/business/sto...
November 18, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
cmwitko.bsky.social
A new article with @mjnelson.bsky.social in PRQ, using a conjoint, CPS ASES and medical residency application data, finds that abortion bans make states less desirable places to live for young women, college graduates and doctors.

This law is more extreme.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
November 18, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
swerd.bsky.social
Today's gift link. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/o...
Opinion | We Came Here Legally. ICE Locked Us Up Anyway.
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
sesmith.lol
‘Death remains my intimate shadow partner. It has been with me since birth, always hovering close by. I understand one day we will finally waltz together into the ether. I hope when that time comes, I die with the satisfaction of a life well-lived, unapologetic, joyful, & full of love.’
—Alice Wong
November 15, 2025 at 6:12 AM
owasow.bsky.social
Plausible that Trump’s policy of mass deportations will not just end a “temporary shift” among Hispanic voters but also lead to a more durable U-turn. In California, the 1994 “anti-immigrant ballot measure Prop 187 marked the death knell of the Republican Party.” calmatters.org/commentary/2...
upshot.nytimes.com The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 10d
The New Jersey governor’s race is the first significant sign that Trump’s success with Hispanic voters in 2024 may have been a temporary shift.

Via @christinezhang.bsky.social and @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
Maps Show How Latinos Who Shifted Right in 2024 Snapped Back Left in 2025
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
adambonica.bsky.social
2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.
The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great
Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.
newrepublic.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
owasow.bsky.social
<40

fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
A line chart titled “Donald Trump Approval” shows presidential approval and disapproval trends over 2025, weighted by poll quality and recency, with shaded 95% confidence intervals. The pink line represents disapproval; the green line represents approval. In January, approval briefly rises from the mid-30s to around 47% before trending downward, ending near 40% in November. Disapproval starts near the mid-40s, climbs above 50% by March, and remains between 52–56% through the year, ending around 56%. A label for November 13, 2025 highlights: “Approve 39.9%, Disapprove 55.9% (Disapprove +16).” The chart shows widening divergence over time, with disapproval consistently higher than approval.
November 14, 2025 at 2:31 AM
owasow.bsky.social
Sentences that should haunt a writer:

“But beautiful women are only a part of it. Because here’s the thing about Epstein: As some collect butterflies, he collects beautiful minds.” nymag.com/nymetro/news...
Jeffrey Epstein: International Moneyman of Mystery
“Terrific guy,” Donald Trump booms from a speakerphone. “He’s a lot of fun to be with.”
nymag.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
owasow.bsky.social
Have to wonder if Epstein could explain Trump’s seeming fear of possible Russian kompromat?
owasow.bsky.social Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · Nov 7
Conspiracy-minded friend asks if Trump is a Russian agent.

There’s a simpler explanation.

See “A Theory of Trump Kompromat” by Adam Davidson in 2018. www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-c...
There is no need to assume that Trump was a formal agent of Russian intelligence to make sense of Trump’s solicitousness toward Putin. Keith Darden, an international-relations professor at American University, has studied the Russian use of kompromat—compromising material—and told me that he thinks it is likely that the President believes the Russians have something on him. “He’s never said a bad word about Putin,” Darden said. “He’s exercised a degree of self-control with respect to Russia that he doesn’t with anything else.” Darden said that this is evidence that Trump isn’t uniformly reckless in his words: “He is capable of being strategic. He knows there are limits, there are bounds on what he can say and do with respect to Russia.”
November 13, 2025 at 5:47 PM
owasow.bsky.social
Maybe burning bridges to the world to build White-kanda isn’t such a good idea?
justinwolfers.bsky.social Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14d
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?

Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
November 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
owasow.bsky.social
“A plainclothes ICE agent pointed his gun at a female driver in Santa Ana…The incident is one of many nationwide raising concerns about plainclothes agents being mistaken for criminals and visa versa, prompting the FBI to urge proper identification.” www.latimes.com/california/s...
Fullerton police stop man pointing gun at female driver, only to learn he is ICE agent
A Fullerton police officer told the agent he couldn't help 'with someone following or recording him if no crime had occurred.' Under state law, local police cannot enforce federal immigration law.
www.latimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Reposted by Omar Wasow
princetonyimby.bsky.social
Bike advocates in Princeton have put out an urgent message for supporters to come to the Council Meeting tonight (400 Witherspoon St or Zoom at 7 p.m)
A platoon of angry car-drivers are expected to speak out in protest at the newly-installed buffered bike lanes on North Harrison Street.
November 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM