Alessandro Rebucci
@arebucci.bsky.social
150 followers 24 following 40 posts
Professor of Economics and Finance at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School. International finance and macroeconomics. Former IMF and IDB. https://carey.jhu.edu/faculty/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd
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arebucci.bsky.social
The #BBB will add $3-4 trillion to the US debt supply. #TheGeniusAct and #SLR reform have their merits, but will boost demand for government debt, while investors are retrenching and dealer inventories are at all-time highs. This smacks of #financialrepression
anderseninstitute.org/regulation-b...
When Financial Regulation becomes Financial Repression – Andersen Institute
anderseninstitute.org
arebucci.bsky.social
The #BBB will add $3-4 trillion to the US debt supply. #TheGeniusAct and #SLR reform have their merits, but will boost demand for government debt, while investors are retrenching and dealer inventories are at all-time highs. This smacks of #financialrepression
anderseninstitute.org/regulation-b...
When Financial Regulation becomes Financial Repression – Andersen Institute
anderseninstitute.org
arebucci.bsky.social
I am thrilled to have joined the substack.com/profile/31…as an Andersen Institute Scholar! 🚀

I am grateful to Fabio Natalucci for the opportunity to collaborate with his outstanding team, and I am excited to contribute to this critical dialogue.#Technologyg#AIAI#Fragmentationo#Deglobalizationon
https://substack.com/profile/31…as
arebucci.bsky.social
A nice discussion of the current and capital account channels of transmission on the exchange rate of tariffs
christiankopf.bsky.social
A little Easter thread on the many surprises the eleven trading sessions since Trump's Liquidation Day announcement have held for capital market participants – why has the dollar weakened in the face of rising tariffs and a rise in US yields relative to its trading partners? [1/11]
arebucci.bsky.social
Financial repression is coming: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Miran had suggested foreign official holders should be forced to demand more USTs ... Bessent is settling for forcing US banks and stablecoin holders to help lower borrowing costs.
America Needs to Be Strong. Why Weaken Its Banks?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has picked the worst possible moment to consider loosening a crucial financial system safeguard.
www.bloomberg.com
arebucci.bsky.social
Way too many people still think this is an exciting time:
Reposted by Alessandro Rebucci
katie0martin.ft.com
Martin Wolf is good on Odd Lots in part because this is exactly how he chats to you in the office kitchen if you ask him a tricky question like "hello Martin, how are you?"

open.spotify.com/episode/6dUH...
Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order
Odd Lots · Episode
open.spotify.com
arebucci.bsky.social
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
arebucci.bsky.social
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
Reposted by Alessandro Rebucci
rashad-ahmed.bsky.social
If tariffs are going to improve US debt sustainability then why is US default risk going up?
#Finsky #Econsky
arebucci.bsky.social
The ETFs that are not struggling are those emphasizing companies with operations in Mexico, Chile, and Germany: well.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/once-hot-wall-street-funds-unravel-fast-with-no-savior-in-sight?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
Once-Hot Wall Street Funds Unravel Fast With No Savior in Sight
With Jerome Powell ruling out a rescue mission this week and incurring the wrath of Donald Trump, Wall Street is desperate for a lifeline as tariff-lashed markets slide anew.
www.bloomberg.com
arebucci.bsky.social
7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.
arebucci.bsky.social
6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)
arebucci.bsky.social
5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks *
Abstract. This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurre
academic.oup.com
arebucci.bsky.social
4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.
arebucci.bsky.social
3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.
arebucci.bsky.social
2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
arebucci.bsky.social
Reposting to
#EconSky #EconConf #AcademicSky
arebucci.bsky.social
Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference Keynote Presentation and Panel Discussion

🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM

📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC

🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.

The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j

#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins
LinkedIn
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arebucci.bsky.social
🎤 At 2 PM, Matteo Maggiori (Stanford) will deliver the keynote address: “Geoeconomics.”

💬 From 4–6 PM, Gillian Tett (FT) will moderate a high-level panel discussion.

🥂 A reception will follow from 6–7 PM.

This promises to be a timely and thought-provoking event—don’t miss it.
arebucci.bsky.social
Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference Keynote Presentation and Panel Discussion

🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM

📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC

🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.

The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j

#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
lnkd.in
arebucci.bsky.social
CEA member Yared makes an excellent point here: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Albeit a bit too late.

Will Trade War II be seen as the birth of the next dominant currency once the Yuan becomes convertible?