This week, the 2025 Arctic-Subarctic Ocean Fluxes (ASOF) workshop was hosted by ICM in Barcelona and thanks to @iasc-arctic.bsky.social cross-cutting workshop funding we could support the travel of 7 Early Career and Indigenous participants.

[4/4] The discussion is now open on EGUsphere! Link to the full preprint for full details: doi.org/10.5194/egus...

[3/4] ANOVA allows to study the explanatory power of qualitative factors (here, different scenarios, models, ensemble members and time steps) on a quantitative variable (here, AMOC intensity). We can then track the main effect of each factor on variability and the interaction effects between them.

[2/4] Key findings: (1) Three successive regimes of variability: (i) internally-driven (1850-1990), (ii) dynamical adjustment (1990-2050), (iii) forced (2050-), (2) Differences between forcing scenarios on AMOC intensity do not emerge until 2050, (3) Internal variability decreases as AMOC declines.

[1/4] 📢 New Preprint Alert! 📢 Is the AMOC's fate already sealed until 2050? We've just dropped a preprint where we partition sources of #AMOC variability from 1850 to 2100 in #CMIP6 ensembles using ANOVA. In this thread, a quick summary of the key points and method! 👇 #Climate

New paper published today by @elodieduyck.bsky.social, myself, and @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social on the freshwater pathways along the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. Freshwater anomalies from Hudson/Baffin Bays likely bypass Labrador Sea convection region: os.copernicus.org/articles/21/...

Does an increase in AMOC variability signal an imminent tipping point? In a recent article in GRL (@agu.org), authors explore the possibility of false positives (increased variance but no bistability) depending on gyre circulation intensity.
#AMOC #TippingPoint #Climate

doi.org/10.1029/2024...