Doing some writing on probability today and I would very much like to know what the deal is with this urn and the coloured balls. Why do we have an urn? Why do we care about the balls? I need more info. It is inexplicable that we have 300 years of urn examples and we don't have more lore.

Some half-formed thoughts on causal inference bc I've been reading about it very casually. (fucking yes, managed to spell them both right first go)

I get similar feelings to when I was reading about how the replication crisis would be solved by pre-registration and so

Playing with Bayesian non-parametrics for distance sampling (preprint out soon). Had a little moment where my feelings about the model were worringly conditional on how many histogram bins I used.

These four plots are from the same model fit, just different numbers of bins summarising the data.

Haven't been on this website in like 3 years, is this thing still on?

Just wanted to relax with some skyrim content but he only goes and uses stratified random plot sampling and so now my statistician work brain is triggered. Work brain is not relaxing. Terrible video.

Also very good, very informative, would rather teach echo stats in Skyrim than the real world.

Now accepting applicants for 25-26 intake of our #StatisticalEcology MSc: bit.ly/3ooHNyc. A unique opportunity to develop skills at the interface of #statistics and #ecology (some partial scholarships available too). Please help me share!

Watched this at Xmas, that's actually Gromit hiding behind there, he just cut out wee eye holes so he could see what the penguin, ahem I mean chicken, was up to.

Up to no good again

Can also do this with Lou Reed songs:

Kindly! Why don't you swallow razor blades?

Well this is news to me

Re-watching the West Wing and I love the fact that they know a huge news story will drop tomorrow because "it's on the internet right now".

Tough week for my simulated mosquito populations. The creator has decreed ye shall have density dependent survival probability. To have lost access to infinity, truly I am sorry. Next up though you'll get a cool ability to hibernate for years through long droughts, so swings and roundabouts.

#StatsSky #statistics

Starting to get a feel for nimble. Write one model, with my own custom distributions, then compile, simulate, fit to simulations. In the old days I would write simulation code and then a separate JAGS model. Lots of potential for errors + contorting the model to be expressed w/ JAGS functions.

The academic grind never stops even on a Sunday. Got to network, get your research out there.

I suppose I need a first post. I'm a statistican who is interested in ecology and epidemiology. I work on spatio-temporal modelling, population dynamics, and I have an interested in effectively communicating uncertainty from complex models to people of all backgrounds.