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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

@avishaybsg.bsky.social

9.7K followers 2.2K following 10K posts

Normative Theory of Civ-Mil especially under democratic backsliding | Liberalism Rekindled Postdoctoral Fellow @Hebrew U | Ruderman Scholar in Residence and Senior Researcher at the INSS | Napper extraordinaire | Kartofellophile

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · May 9

Things about politics I’ve come to believe strongly:

1. Less bad is better than more bad
2. Nostalgia is generally incorrect. Things weren’t better
3. Still, things can get much worse
4. Democracy is an outlier in human political history
5. Optimism is rooted in agency, not positive predictions

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3h

The excellent @shaiagmon.bsky.social

Shai Agmon @shaiagmon.bsky.social · 3h

Just spoke to @euronews.com about the Trump deal to end the Gaza war. Here are the main points I made 🧵:

1. Trump should have formally brought in the Palestinian Authority as part of both the negotiations and the implementation.

>>>

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 4h

It was so incredibly moving. I was sorry they didn’t incorporate Arabic like last year but even so.

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social · 5h

“Israeli and foreign sources are telling me in the last hour: "Optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, entering the critical hours"” - Diplomatic Correspondent Amichai Stein is, now, reporting

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 5h

Media sources (and people I’m talking to) are optimistic that agreement on first stage of Gaza deal (centered on hostage release) may be imminent. By the end of the week if not tonight. It can still collapse but the tone is the most positive I’ve heard in a long time. Possibly at all.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 5h

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 5h

Imminent

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Emissary Of Night | ليلى @diplomatofnight.com · 14h

You'll fare a lot better in terms of coping with this stuff if you just internalize that being pro-Israel has long been considered an elite litmus test and now being pro-Palestine is becoming the litmus test of the forthcoming next generation of elites. Ideological reproduction on the issue flipped.

Emissary Of Night | ليلى @diplomatofnight.com · 14h

I think it's fine to admit that. Just as there's a growing bloc of Democratic hyper-active activists or apparachikti who think Palestine is especially important, so too has there always been and remains the donor set which prioritizes the 'bipartisan consensus' on Israel.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

Two years ago, on October 7th 2023, I was posting analysis to not think about what was going on

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · Oct 8

Israeli intelligence didn’t know anything was coming so I’m certainly not going off of anything saying that I don’t think Hamas was expecting such operational success and that it may spell strategic doom for them. Or at least an attempt by Israel to bring it by way of fully toppling them.

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

On stage: burnt and bullet ridden car, an ashen concrete security space like the ones in which haas massacred young people fleeing the nova, and 48 empty yellow chairs for the hostages

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 1d

At the “national” October 7th memorial in Tel Aviv organized by families of casualties. Tens of thousands (at least) here and many more watching the broadcast which will start at 9:30 Israel time, in 4m.

www.youtube.com/live/Qf7Ha_1...

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 2d

And spread your Sukkah of peace over us

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Lindsay P Cohn @lindsaypcohn.bsky.social · 2d

Folks we are watching the adjudication of some of the most important constitutional issues of federalism, executive discretion, and judicial review since the 19th c

www.oregonlive.com/politics/202...

Judge issues new broader order barring any National Guard from relocating to Oregon

Judge asked federal government lawyer: 'Do you believe this is an appropriate way to deal with a judge’s order that you disagree with?'

www.oregonlive.com

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

Following this discussion about Armageddon, what is the best rock-ballad of all time, and why is it November Rain?

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

I haven't seen the movie so I only have the song and music video to go on. Based on those, it was the most awesome movie to come out apart from the basically feature film that is November Rain

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

Yes, but it was also the vehicle for an awesome rock ballad that defined the 90s so not just that.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

Mine is Armageddon

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

This is the good stuff

Christoph Harig @charig.bsky.social · 8d

Joint Warfare in Paraná

A Paraná military police badge next to 1 1/2 marijuana joints. #DrugBust

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

התשובה בגוף השאלה. כי אף אחד מעולם לא קרא אותו עד הסוף

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

The thing that makes me saddest when I review a paper is when it wastes a good question :(

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

They should talk to me. I'm also sad. For discernible reasons though

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Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)

Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 3d

The very first statute authorizing domestic use of the military during domestic emergencies, enacted in 1792 by a Congress full of the same folks who wrote and ratified the Constitution, expressly provided for judicial review in certain circumstances *before* the President could even send troops.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

Exhibitiophobe

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

We won't really know in time. They'll use whatever has already been achieved to justify it, and ask him nicely to make sure it doesn't fly to bits before the ceremony

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

He owns the ceasefire and insists neither side break it.

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

I didn't say why. After Mark Rutte's rhetorical about turn, I wouldn't put it past any of the old world powers

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 3d

אני מתערב איתך שמופעל על הוועדה כל לחץ שבעולם כי לא מעניין אותו שהפרס יהיה "לגיטימי" במובן הזה שהם החליטו עצמאית