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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 1d

Senate confirmed Thomas DiNanno to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. State Department now has its top nuclear official in place. His predecessor Bonnie Jenkins was confirmed in July of 2021

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 9d

Will do :)

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 9d

Looking forward to three days of arms control discussions at @wiltonpark.bsky.social

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 16d

President Putin announced Russia will stick to New START limits for a year after the treaty expiration in 2026, and will review its policy according to the US actions after www.rbc.ru/politics/22/...

Путин заявил о готовности России придерживаться ДСНВ год после истечения

Истечение ДСНВ в 2026 году означает исчезновение последнего соглашения о прямых ограничениях на ракетный потенциал, заявил президент России Владимир Путин на совещании с Совбезом. Российская ...

www.rbc.ru

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19d

Second use of NATO article 4 in two weeks. Those used to be really rare before, this is the 8th time ever since 1949

Kristen Michal @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social · 19d

This morning, 3 Russian Mig-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace.

NATO fighters responded and the Russian planes were forced to flee.

Such violation is totally unacceptable. The Government of Estonia has decided to request NATO Article 4 consultations.

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 6

So Vzaimodeistvie-2025 is over and as far as I can see nobody disputed Belarus statement about the nuclear component of this CSTO exercise

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 4

CSTO exercise in Belarus will also include planning for nuclear weapons use. Is this the first time militaries from Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan participate in an exercise with a nuclear component? www.kommersant.ru/doc/8006081

На учениях ОДКБ отработают возможное применение ядерного оружия

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 5

Christopher Yeaw has been nominated for Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Stability. His most recent government position was Senior Policy Advisor for Defense Programs at NNSA, and before that, Chief Scientist of Air Force Global Strike Command

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 4

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told parliament on Thursday that von der Leyen's plane had not experienced "prolonged interference or jamming." It seems sometimes it’s better to be cautious about those kind of things. Yes, this is a subtweet www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Bulgaria U-turns on claim Moscow jammed GPS of von der Leyen's plane

Bulgaria's Prime Minister says there is "no evidence" of "prolonged interference or jamming" of the GPS signal around Plovdiv airport at the time of von der Leyen's landing, but experts remain divided...

www.euronews.com

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 4

CSTO exercise in Belarus will also include planning for nuclear weapons use. Is this the first time militaries from Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan participate in an exercise with a nuclear component? www.kommersant.ru/doc/8006081

На учениях ОДКБ отработают возможное применение ядерного оружия

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 2

“No investigation into disruption of GPS on von der Leyen plane. 'This interference is not targeted at one or another aviation object. Such things happen daily,' says Bulgarian Premier Zhelyazkov” - well, I didn’t know such things happened daily, but ok www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/no...

No investigation into disruption of GPS on von der Leyen plane, says Bulgaria's premier

'This interference is not targeted at one or another aviation object. Such things happen daily,' says Rosen Zhelyazkov - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 2

Russia declares @rusi.bsky.social an undesirable organisation, making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to "engage in the activities" of RUSI.

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 1

A weird turn of the story, but one that would answer my previous question about the physics of Russian jamming over Plovdiv airport…

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Sep 1

So what would be the physics behind Russian "GPS jamming" over Plovdiv airport (but nowhere else around?) www.ft.com/content/3c33...

Ursula von der Leyen’s plane hit by suspected Russian GPS interference

Officials suspect jamming operation forced jet carrying European Commission president to land in Bulgaria using paper maps

www.ft.com

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 29

The spam is really getting better these days

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 19

So what happened with the Burevestnik test? www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Putin appears ready to test new missile as he prepares for Trump talks, researchers say

Russia appears to be preparing to test its new nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered cruise missile, according to two U.S. researchers and a Western security source, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin readies for talks on Ukraine with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday.

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Andrey Baklitskiy

Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · Aug 16

Jobs with some great nuclear experts in Geneva.

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 15

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Graduate Professional (Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, multiple positions) → UNIDIR

Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme is seeking a graduate professional to assist research and day-to-day work in the Nuclear Disarmament Verification workstream.

unidir.org

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 15

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Graduate Professional (Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, multiple positions) → UNIDIR

Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme is seeking a graduate professional to assist research and day-to-day work in the Nuclear Disarmament Verification workstream.

unidir.org

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

Обсудили с @bbcrussian.bsky.social отмену Россией моратория на развертывание РСМД youtu.be/ar5IvH4BT3s

Будет ли новая холодная война?

YouTube video by BBC News - Русская служба

youtu.be

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Reposted by Andrey Baklitskiy

Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · Aug 6

There are a lot of horrifying photographs of the damage and human toll at Hiroshima. But it's still this one that sticks in my mind the most. Noboricho Elementary School, about 1 km from ground zero. School children were an important source of data about the bomb's mortality. 98% fatalities.

Class photograph of the Noboricho Elementary School, circa the 1930s. From the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.

Mortality-casualty curve for Hiroshima, as developed by the Joint Commission for the Investigation of the Atomic Bomb in Japan.

Each of the numbers on this map represents the location of a group of school children on the day of the bombing in Hiroshima. By looking at the fates of groups in known locations, and their distances from ground zero (at the center of the map), the Joint Commission was able to construct a mortality-casualty curve that shows how distance affected outcomes. Because of the groups’ distribution throughout the city, and the well-ordered nature of school recordkeeping, data on school children was particularly valued for analyzing bomb impacts. Some of the numbered locations are for “work parties” of school children, and others are for schools. For example, location #1 is the Motokawa Primary School, located only 0.5 kilometer from ground zero, where 100% of the 192 children at the school were killed. At location #3, all of the 134 students from two schools who were assigned to clearing firebreaks were killed.

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

Again, the moratorium proposal was less of a solution than an invitation to a dialogue that never happened. It doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a diplomatic process in the future to address this issue. But it seems that for the moment, the mood is to build, not to talk 6/6

Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

Strategically, the Russian decision to walk back the moratorium was because everyone (including Russia) was building and planning to deploy INF-range systems. What triggered this specific choice at this specific moment is less important (though of course there are theories) 5/6

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

Its biggest benefit was that it was a concrete arms control proposal Russia put out and was willing to discuss – this doesn’t happen that often. Something you could have picked up at the first opportunity. Now it’s apparently off the table 4/6

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

But the moratorium proposal in its latest iteration had many openings that could have been used to discuss and address Western concerns like the inclusion of 9m729 and even verification. 3/6

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

The Russian moratorium proposal was an invitation to a discussion on how to regulate ground-launched INF-range systems after the treaty disappeared. Many argue that Russia was not sincere in its proposal to begin with 2/6

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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · Aug 6

I’m kind of frustrated with the whole INF moratorium discussion, so here are my two cents without going into the whole 9m729 controversy, which we don’t have facts to independently verify one way or the other. Thread 1/6

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