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Bobby Kogan

@bbkogan.bsky.social

35K followers 470 following 2.7K posts

Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ. Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders). CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · Nov 11

Two starter packs from me!

First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!

Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

So when I said "This I super agree with," I just meant that's what most budget people and budget lawyers would say. There's an argument that entitlements automatically generate an appropriation, which I buy, but that's sort of another discussion.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

Clarifying: on #1, the traditional interpretation of appropriated entitlements is you need a formal appropriation to kick the $$ out the door. I don't think you do but that's the conventional wisdom. But because of #2, OMB thinks it's just not an entitlement so think they need a normal appropriation

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

I think the reporting is somewhat confused. From OMB's memo, I think they're saying two things.
1) It needs a formal appropriation to kick the money out the door. This I super agree with.
2) It actually didn't even create an entitlement, so you can't sue w/out number 1. This I super disagree with.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

I've now read OMB's memo, and it *seems* like they're arguing the 2019 law didn't actually create an entitlement. That's crazy. Under that interpretation, absent the startup language, you couldn't sue. But they're wrong, so you can. And it's moot anyway because we'll do the startup language.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

If Russ does that, the entitlement language becomes really important. You can't sue through the Court of Claims anymore because there's an allowable method to be paid. So instead you do normal suits to get the administration to give you the funds you're entitled to.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

If Congress does do the normal startup language, then everything works like any other time we reopen the government, and people get backpay.

UNLESS Russ Vought wants to say "well, that's an allowable purpose, but not a required purpose, so I'm just not gonna pay them...."

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 17h

So, the long and short: furloughed workers are entitled to backpay. If Congress doesn't do the normal startup language, they can sue in the US Court of Claims and win.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

Mike Johnson's CR doesn't have that language, because it was written prior to the government shutting down (so ofc it wouldn't have startup language).

But what that means is that we can't use that CR to reopen the government. The House Republican CR as written is insufficient.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

That's fine. We always have normal startup language when we reopen the government - and we did in 2019 when we reopened the government even though this entitlement existed. We do that every time, and we'll do that this time when we reopen the government.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

But this 2019 law is what's called an "appropriated entitlement." It created the entitlement, but it didn't create the money to carry it out. So furloughed employees can get money from the US Court of Claims if need be, but there needs to be additional law enacted to get paid w/out having to sue.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

This means that if they don't receive backpay, they can sue, and they will win, and they will get their backpay. Furloughed employees are guaranteed backpay, and anything to the contrary is wrong, period full stop.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

First, by default, until the 2019 law, furloughed workers weren't guaranteed backpay. We always passed laws to provide backpay, but it was never guaranteed.

In 2019, Congress overwhelmingly passed a law *entitling* them to backpay.

See where it says "shall be paid?" That's a legal entitlement.

(2) Each employee of the United States Government or of a District of Columbia public employer furloughed as a result of a covered lapse in appropriations shall be paid for the period of the lapse in appropriations, and each excepted employee who is required to perform work during a covered lapse in appropriations shall be paid for such work, at the employee's standard rate of pay, at the earliest date possible after the lapse in appropriations ends, regardless of scheduled pay dates, and subject to the enactment of appropriations Acts ending the lapse.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 18h

Are furloughed federal employees entitled to backpay?

The short answer is yes furloughed federal employees are entitled to backpay, but the mechanism a little complicated.

And, importantly, it means the House GOP CR is insufficient for reopening the govt & needs to be amended.

Thread explaining:

Scoop: White House memo says furloughed federal workers aren't entitled to backpay

A move to deny backpay to up to 750,000 furloughed workers would dramatically escalate Trump's pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Kathleen is a must-follow person on all things Social Security and all things disability policy

Kathleen Romig @kathleenromig.bsky.social · 1d

Alarming news this morning that Social Security head Frank Bisignano has been named “CEO” of IRS, a move that raises 3 major concerns:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Bessent Picks Social Security Chief Frank Bisignano as IRS CEO

The Social Security head will do double duty at the tax agency while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent retains his formal title as acting IRS commissioner.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Literally just a few months ago Mike Johnson just spearheaded the largest Medicaid cuts in history, four times as large as the Reagan’s Medicaid cuts

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Mike Johnson: "Let me look right into the camera and tell you very clearly: Republicans are the ones concerned about healthcare. Republicans are the party working around the clock everyday to fix healthcare. This is not talking points for us: we've done it."

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

I’ll be chatting shutdowns with Joan Eposito at 4:30 pm eastern today

WCPT 820 AM, 4:30 pm ET Monday October 6

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 1d

Phenomenal opportunity for macroeconomists of all levels. Truly cannot recommend the Yale Budget Lab team enough. I've worked extremely closely with most of the people there, and their simultaneous dedication to accuracy and usefulness while ensuring the work environment is enjoyable is unmatched.

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 1d

Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

The GOP argument right now is that they wrote a bill with zero Dem input that lets Trump ignore any of the funding in it — like he’s been doing all year — but Dems are to blame cause they said no to that?

How can you call a CR clean when Trump’s just gonna ignore it? It’s a CR with unspecific cuts!

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 4d

Johnson calling it a "December policy issue" shows that he wants to let the subsidies lapse.

Open enrollment begins November 1. Notices will be going out very shortly.

There isn't actually time to kick the can on the tax credits. It's a *now* issue, regardless of government funding.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d

BASH: The argument Dems make is that insurance companies start to make plans soon, and so by the time they make that plan the ACA subsidies will expire. Isn't there something to that?

JOHNSON: No. That's a December policy issue

BASH: But insurance companies have to make decisions well before Dec.

Reposted by Bobby Kogan

Jason Koebler @jasonkoebler.bsky.social · 5d

so the US government just forced a tech company to delete an app it doesn’t like, which is totally normal stuff

www.404media.co/iceblock-own...

ICEBlock Owner After Apple Removes App: ‘We Are Determined to Fight This’

Apple removed ICEBlock reportedly after direct pressure from Department of Justice officials. “I am incredibly disappointed by Apple's actions today. Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never t...

www.404media.co

Reposted by Bobby Kogan

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG @thebradblog.bsky.social · 5d

Biden Budget Expert Warns Mass Firings During Shutdown 'Extremely Illegal': Today's #BradCast

Guest: @bbkogan.bsky.social, former OMB, Sen. budget advisor; Also: Middle of night raids in Chicago drag U.S. citizens, women, children into street...

FULL STORY, LISTEN: bradblog.com?p=15520

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

Watch me talk about the shutdown with @jimsciutto.bsky.social on @cnn.com at 6pm eastern!

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

What's wild here is Democrats are begging Republicans to please not let premiums skyrocket under Republican watch when Republicans would be blamed, and Republicans are like twirling their mustaches saying "no the premiums will go up under our tenure"

Groundwork Collaborative @groundwork.bsky.social · 5d

🚨75% of voters - and 69% of Republicans - are very concerned about the rising costs of health care premiums.

But Republicans would rather shut down the government than protect working families from rising health care costs.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

Absolutely insane

Education Department employees surprised to find their email automatically changed to blame Democrats for shutdown
Five furloughed employees told NBC News they had put up nonpartisan out-of-office messages, only to see they were changed - without their permission - to partisan ones.

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

The White House is out there saying with a straight face that conducting mass firings is “similar to conducting foreign policy”

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

There are four exceptions where you can incur obligations during a shutdown despite having no funding.

One is if the action is necessary to discharge the President’s constitutional duties and powers.

OMB is asserting that conducting mass firings falls under that.

Be fucking for real right now

Asked about the legal concerns, White House Office of Management and Budget communications director Rachel McCauley said in a written statement that "issuing RIFs is an excepted activity to fulfill the President's constitutional authority to supervise and control the Executive Branch, similar to conducting foreign policy."