Being Exponential | Luke Lango
@beingexponential.bsky.social
🔍 Decode AI, tech & market trends
📈 Thrive in a world of exponential change
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https://www.youtube.com/@BeingExponential
📈 Thrive in a world of exponential change
🎙️ New episodes weekly | 🎧 Subscribe now
https://www.youtube.com/@BeingExponential
Ugly December S&P Global Composite PMI report, too, on top of the ugly jobs numbers.
- US Composite PMI Output Index: 53.0 (6-month low)
- US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 52.9 (6-month low)
- US Manufacturing Output Index: 53.0 (3-month low)
- US Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (5-month low)
- US Composite PMI Output Index: 53.0 (6-month low)
- US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 52.9 (6-month low)
- US Manufacturing Output Index: 53.0 (3-month low)
- US Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (5-month low)
December 16, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Ugly December S&P Global Composite PMI report, too, on top of the ugly jobs numbers.
- US Composite PMI Output Index: 53.0 (6-month low)
- US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 52.9 (6-month low)
- US Manufacturing Output Index: 53.0 (3-month low)
- US Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (5-month low)
- US Composite PMI Output Index: 53.0 (6-month low)
- US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 52.9 (6-month low)
- US Manufacturing Output Index: 53.0 (3-month low)
- US Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (5-month low)
That's a really ugly jobs report.
- Job growth is collapsing. October jobs -105,000 / November +64,000 / 6-month average +17,000 which (ex Covid) is lowest in 15 years and consistent with recessions.
- Job growth is collapsing. October jobs -105,000 / November +64,000 / 6-month average +17,000 which (ex Covid) is lowest in 15 years and consistent with recessions.
December 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
That's a really ugly jobs report.
- Job growth is collapsing. October jobs -105,000 / November +64,000 / 6-month average +17,000 which (ex Covid) is lowest in 15 years and consistent with recessions.
- Job growth is collapsing. October jobs -105,000 / November +64,000 / 6-month average +17,000 which (ex Covid) is lowest in 15 years and consistent with recessions.
The newest workplace trend is "Quiet Cracking", where employees are showing up and doing the work - but inside, they're unhappy, cracking, and running on fumes.
I think this about describes 70% of the working people I know and almost 100% of the people I know that are NOT working in or around AI.
I think this about describes 70% of the working people I know and almost 100% of the people I know that are NOT working in or around AI.
December 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
The newest workplace trend is "Quiet Cracking", where employees are showing up and doing the work - but inside, they're unhappy, cracking, and running on fumes.
I think this about describes 70% of the working people I know and almost 100% of the people I know that are NOT working in or around AI.
I think this about describes 70% of the working people I know and almost 100% of the people I know that are NOT working in or around AI.
November Jobs Report tomorrow and Wall Street seems to think it won't be good.
I'm a little worried about it, too.
#BA #GM #META #AMZN #UPS #VZ and more have all announced jobs cuts in the several thousands over the past few months. The late 2025 corporate layoff wave has been sizable.
I'm a little worried about it, too.
#BA #GM #META #AMZN #UPS #VZ and more have all announced jobs cuts in the several thousands over the past few months. The late 2025 corporate layoff wave has been sizable.
December 15, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I dislike income taxes as much as the next guy. But tariffs aren’t going to cut your taxes anytime soon.
It ain’t 1913 anymore. Tariffs, unfortunately, can’t pay for our government in 2025.
It ain’t 1913 anymore. Tariffs, unfortunately, can’t pay for our government in 2025.
December 12, 2025 at 6:12 PM
I dislike income taxes as much as the next guy. But tariffs aren’t going to cut your taxes anytime soon.
It ain’t 1913 anymore. Tariffs, unfortunately, can’t pay for our government in 2025.
It ain’t 1913 anymore. Tariffs, unfortunately, can’t pay for our government in 2025.
PE firm EQT plans to deploy 10,000 humanoid robots made by 1X Technologies to its portfolio companies starting in 2026.
The humanoids have arrived.
Good time to remember this chart.
- Materials: #MP #USAR #LAC #ALB #FCX
- Batteries: #QS #ENVX #AMPX
- Compute: #NVDA #AMD #AMBA #MRVL #AVGO
The humanoids have arrived.
Good time to remember this chart.
- Materials: #MP #USAR #LAC #ALB #FCX
- Batteries: #QS #ENVX #AMPX
- Compute: #NVDA #AMD #AMBA #MRVL #AVGO
December 11, 2025 at 9:04 PM
I don't think AI makes this problem any better...
The richest 10% of people in the world own 75% of the wealth. The bottom 50% own just 2%.
The richest 10% of people in the world own 75% of the wealth. The bottom 50% own just 2%.
December 9, 2025 at 6:14 PM
I don't think AI makes this problem any better...
The richest 10% of people in the world own 75% of the wealth. The bottom 50% own just 2%.
The richest 10% of people in the world own 75% of the wealth. The bottom 50% own just 2%.
The market was convinced that Kevin Hassett -- the heavy betting favorite to be the next Fed Chair -- would get in there and just cut, cut, cut. This assumption has kept a lid on Treasury yields over the past few months.
December 8, 2025 at 7:33 PM
The market was convinced that Kevin Hassett -- the heavy betting favorite to be the next Fed Chair -- would get in there and just cut, cut, cut. This assumption has kept a lid on Treasury yields over the past few months.
The altcoin purge is brutal. But it's healthy!
Markets cannot run on "greater fool" dynamics forever. We are seeing a massive flight to quality.
Some proof:
- Memecoin volume is collapsing.
- The Dogecoin ETF launch was a total non-event (zero inflows on Day 1
Markets cannot run on "greater fool" dynamics forever. We are seeing a massive flight to quality.
Some proof:
- Memecoin volume is collapsing.
- The Dogecoin ETF launch was a total non-event (zero inflows on Day 1
December 6, 2025 at 1:56 AM
The altcoin purge is brutal. But it's healthy!
Markets cannot run on "greater fool" dynamics forever. We are seeing a massive flight to quality.
Some proof:
- Memecoin volume is collapsing.
- The Dogecoin ETF launch was a total non-event (zero inflows on Day 1
Markets cannot run on "greater fool" dynamics forever. We are seeing a massive flight to quality.
Some proof:
- Memecoin volume is collapsing.
- The Dogecoin ETF launch was a total non-event (zero inflows on Day 1
And OpenAI punches back.
This race isn’t over. We’re in the third mile of a marathon. No lead is safe.
They all want to win:
#NVDA #AVGO #MRVL #TSM #ARM #LITE #COHR #CRDO #MU #STX #SNDK
Which means they’ll all keep spending.
And AI infrastructure stocks will keep benefitting.
This race isn’t over. We’re in the third mile of a marathon. No lead is safe.
They all want to win:
#NVDA #AVGO #MRVL #TSM #ARM #LITE #COHR #CRDO #MU #STX #SNDK
Which means they’ll all keep spending.
And AI infrastructure stocks will keep benefitting.
December 5, 2025 at 9:00 PM
New research from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that GPU share of AI chip market will decrease dramatically over the next 5 years as custom ASICs gobble up share.
December 5, 2025 at 6:15 PM
New research from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that GPU share of AI chip market will decrease dramatically over the next 5 years as custom ASICs gobble up share.
Consumer inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% in November to 4.1% in December, their biggest drop since July. After spiking due to tariff fears in April/May, consumer inflation expectations have moderated significantly over the last few months and now back to the high-side of "normal".
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Consumer inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% in November to 4.1% in December, their biggest drop since July. After spiking due to tariff fears in April/May, consumer inflation expectations have moderated significantly over the last few months and now back to the high-side of "normal".
Delayed September PCE numbers are in and they're "good enough".
PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.7 -> 2.8)
Core PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.9 -> 2.8)
Both running at the high-end of "normal"
PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.7 -> 2.8)
Core PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.9 -> 2.8)
Both running at the high-end of "normal"
December 5, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Delayed September PCE numbers are in and they're "good enough".
PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.7 -> 2.8)
Core PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.9 -> 2.8)
Both running at the high-end of "normal"
PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.7 -> 2.8)
Core PCE inflation rate largely flat (2.9 -> 2.8)
Both running at the high-end of "normal"
UMich Consumer Sentiment rose in December for the first time since June. Though still low, it's in the "bottoming zone" (50-60) that often signals a big rebound and market rally. Examples: late 1980, late 2008/early 2009, late 2011, late 2022.
December 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
UMich Consumer Sentiment rose in December for the first time since June. Though still low, it's in the "bottoming zone" (50-60) that often signals a big rebound and market rally. Examples: late 1980, late 2008/early 2009, late 2011, late 2022.
New Being Exponential podcast: Santa Rally confirmed, Fed eyes weak labor data.
Highlights: custom silicon gains, AI Bio developments, government support for nuclear, White House stake rumors, and robotics boosts. Plus, AI automation poses labor risks...
🔽🔗
Highlights: custom silicon gains, AI Bio developments, government support for nuclear, White House stake rumors, and robotics boosts. Plus, AI automation poses labor risks...
🔽🔗
December 4, 2025 at 5:58 PM
New Being Exponential podcast: Santa Rally confirmed, Fed eyes weak labor data.
Highlights: custom silicon gains, AI Bio developments, government support for nuclear, White House stake rumors, and robotics boosts. Plus, AI automation poses labor risks...
🔽🔗
Highlights: custom silicon gains, AI Bio developments, government support for nuclear, White House stake rumors, and robotics boosts. Plus, AI automation poses labor risks...
🔽🔗
Good slate of jobs data data.
- Challenger job cuts retreated big in November after spiking in October
- Initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 3-year low during Thanksgiving week
- Continuing jobless claims slid to a 2-month low
- Challenger job cuts retreated big in November after spiking in October
- Initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 3-year low during Thanksgiving week
- Continuing jobless claims slid to a 2-month low
December 4, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Good slate of jobs data data.
- Challenger job cuts retreated big in November after spiking in October
- Initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 3-year low during Thanksgiving week
- Continuing jobless claims slid to a 2-month low
- Challenger job cuts retreated big in November after spiking in October
- Initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 3-year low during Thanksgiving week
- Continuing jobless claims slid to a 2-month low
The ISM Composite PMI - the sum of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI - has averaged 107 over the last 25 years. During booming economies, the index climbs up to 115+. In rough economies, the index drops below 100.
December 3, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The ISM Composite PMI - the sum of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI - has averaged 107 over the last 25 years. During booming economies, the index climbs up to 115+. In rough economies, the index drops below 100.
Good news for the Fed: The ISM Services Price Index dropped 4.6 points in November, its biggest drop of the year and its biggest drop since February 2024. While this index remains elevated, it appears the worst of the 2025 reinflation wave is over. Translation: Time to cut.
December 3, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Good news for the Fed: The ISM Services Price Index dropped 4.6 points in November, its biggest drop of the year and its biggest drop since February 2024. While this index remains elevated, it appears the worst of the 2025 reinflation wave is over. Translation: Time to cut.