Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify.
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
Bad Influence is a brilliant new book by @debscohen.bsky.social - I’m learning so much about the impact of the internet on people’s perceptions of their health - disturbing and eye opening
February 1, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Bad Influence is a brilliant new book by @debscohen.bsky.social - I’m learning so much about the impact of the internet on people’s perceptions of their health - disturbing and eye opening
...Rachel Reeves' freeze in repayment thresholds in the 2025 Budget did make the system less progressive (with those in the middle being projected to pay more as a result than those at the top) - but the big reduction in the progressivity of the system was the 2022 shift from Plan 2 to Plan 5
January 29, 2026 at 3:20 PM
...Rachel Reeves' freeze in repayment thresholds in the 2025 Budget did make the system less progressive (with those in the middle being projected to pay more as a result than those at the top) - but the big reduction in the progressivity of the system was the 2022 shift from Plan 2 to Plan 5
...& gap between lifetime repayments of those on higher incomes & lower incomes now projected to be smaller than under the previous system.
In part because Plan 5 got rid of the RPI+ 3% interest rate on loans - means people on higher incomes projected to accrue less debt and so pay less back
In part because Plan 5 got rid of the RPI+ 3% interest rate on loans - means people on higher incomes projected to accrue less debt and so pay less back
January 29, 2026 at 3:11 PM
...& gap between lifetime repayments of those on higher incomes & lower incomes now projected to be smaller than under the previous system.
In part because Plan 5 got rid of the RPI+ 3% interest rate on loans - means people on higher incomes projected to accrue less debt and so pay less back
In part because Plan 5 got rid of the RPI+ 3% interest rate on loans - means people on higher incomes projected to accrue less debt and so pay less back
....also worth noting that, on this basis, the impact of the Conservatives' 2022 reforms (creating Plan 5 loans for uni cohorts after 2023) was to make the system less progressive i.e those with higher incomes are projected to pay back less relative to the previous system...
January 29, 2026 at 3:08 PM
....also worth noting that, on this basis, the impact of the Conservatives' 2022 reforms (creating Plan 5 loans for uni cohorts after 2023) was to make the system less progressive i.e those with higher incomes are projected to pay back less relative to the previous system...
Regarding the debate over whether the English student loan system is "progressive" or "regressive" it's worth noting IFS calculations suggest over the lifetime of existing graduates (on Plan 2 loans), the highest earners will pay more than those in the middle & much more than the lowest earners...
January 29, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Regarding the debate over whether the English student loan system is "progressive" or "regressive" it's worth noting IFS calculations suggest over the lifetime of existing graduates (on Plan 2 loans), the highest earners will pay more than those in the middle & much more than the lowest earners...
Some tentative signs of a pick-up in new home delivery in England from the latest official data (based on Energy Performance Certificates lodged in the second half of 2025)
Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...
Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...
January 29, 2026 at 12:09 PM
Some tentative signs of a pick-up in new home delivery in England from the latest official data (based on Energy Performance Certificates lodged in the second half of 2025)
Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...
Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...
...Note that official projections from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) suggest even granting new exploration licences would not change this sharply declining trend of North Sea oil and gas production over the coming decades www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-ins...
January 21, 2026 at 5:35 PM
...Note that official projections from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) suggest even granting new exploration licences would not change this sharply declining trend of North Sea oil and gas production over the coming decades www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-ins...
...Breakdown shows it's due to the sharp decline in UK oil and gas production over that time...
January 21, 2026 at 2:53 PM
...Breakdown shows it's due to the sharp decline in UK oil and gas production over that time...
Likely source of Trump's claim the UK is producing a third of the total energy as it was in 1999: UK energy stats "Availability and consumption of primary fuels and equivalents" - 94k thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024 vs 297k in 1999 (-70%)... www.gov.uk/government/s...
January 21, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Likely source of Trump's claim the UK is producing a third of the total energy as it was in 1999: UK energy stats "Availability and consumption of primary fuels and equivalents" - 94k thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024 vs 297k in 1999 (-70%)... www.gov.uk/government/s...
The world had 1,100GW of installed wind power in 2024 - around half of it is China 👇
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
January 21, 2026 at 2:15 PM
The world had 1,100GW of installed wind power in 2024 - around half of it is China 👇
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
Trump tells Davos "China makes almost all of the windmills and yet I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China"
IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity
pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...
IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity
pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...
January 21, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Trump tells Davos "China makes almost all of the windmills and yet I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China"
IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity
pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...
IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity
pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...
DonaldTrump tells Davos the US gas price is "now below $2.50 in many states, $2.30 in most states"
The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...
The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...
January 21, 2026 at 1:56 PM
DonaldTrump tells Davos the US gas price is "now below $2.50 in many states, $2.30 in most states"
The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...
The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
This section from Mark Carney's speech in Davos sums up perfectly the global trend I describe in my book Exile Economics: What Happens If Globalisation Fails... paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
January 20, 2026 at 4:30 PM
This section from Mark Carney's speech in Davos sums up perfectly the global trend I describe in my book Exile Economics: What Happens If Globalisation Fails... paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
Will the Chagos deal cost the UK £3.4bn or £35bn?
My analysis on the BBC website...👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
My analysis on the BBC website...👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
January 20, 2026 at 1:47 PM
Will the Chagos deal cost the UK £3.4bn or £35bn?
My analysis on the BBC website...👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
My analysis on the BBC website...👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
...According to the OEC, the UK imported $28m of goods from Iran in 2023 - including nuts, spices and carpets
January 13, 2026 at 11:11 AM
...According to the OEC, the UK imported $28m of goods from Iran in 2023 - including nuts, spices and carpets
Here's Trump's full social media post which claims these tariffs are "effective immediately":
January 13, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Here's Trump's full social media post which claims these tariffs are "effective immediately":
...of the $13.2bn of goods Iran exported in 2023, around 35% ($4.6bn) went to China, mainly metals and plastics...
January 13, 2026 at 11:04 AM
...of the $13.2bn of goods Iran exported in 2023, around 35% ($4.6bn) went to China, mainly metals and plastics...
Regarding Trump's 25% US tariff on any country "doing business with Iran" - here's Iran's top 10 export trading partners in 2023...
January 13, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Regarding Trump's 25% US tariff on any country "doing business with Iran" - here's Iran's top 10 export trading partners in 2023...
Regarding the debate on BBC Politics Live just now about the government's jobs market record, according to the Office for National Statistics' Labour Force Survey it's the case that both unemployment AND employment have recorded as having risen since Labour took office...
January 7, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Regarding the debate on BBC Politics Live just now about the government's jobs market record, according to the Office for National Statistics' Labour Force Survey it's the case that both unemployment AND employment have recorded as having risen since Labour took office...
...that revenue estimate was reduced by £70m in the 2025 Budget, as a result of unused allowances for the 100% rate of relief were made transferable between spouses... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b3...
December 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM
...that revenue estimate was reduced by £70m in the 2025 Budget, as a result of unused allowances for the 100% rate of relief were made transferable between spouses... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b3...
How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost?
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
December 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM
How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost?
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
December 15, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
The answer to this one seems to be a clear no, since we know from the OBR’s letter to the Treasury Select Committee on 28 November that its final OBR pre-measures headroom forecast of £4.2bn was delivered to HMT on 31 Oct and did not change after that.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
ENDS
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
ENDS
December 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The answer to this one seems to be a clear no, since we know from the OBR’s letter to the Treasury Select Committee on 28 November that its final OBR pre-measures headroom forecast of £4.2bn was delivered to HMT on 31 Oct and did not change after that.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
ENDS
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
ENDS
Yet there WAS a clear fiscal deterioration in the OBR’s forecast relative to the March 2025 Spring Statement.
The headroom fell from £9.9bn in March to £4.2bn (-£5.7bn) because of changes in the economic outlook.
So RELATIVE TO MARCH a hole could be said to have opened up...6/12
The headroom fell from £9.9bn in March to £4.2bn (-£5.7bn) because of changes in the economic outlook.
So RELATIVE TO MARCH a hole could be said to have opened up...6/12
December 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Yet there WAS a clear fiscal deterioration in the OBR’s forecast relative to the March 2025 Spring Statement.
The headroom fell from £9.9bn in March to £4.2bn (-£5.7bn) because of changes in the economic outlook.
So RELATIVE TO MARCH a hole could be said to have opened up...6/12
The headroom fell from £9.9bn in March to £4.2bn (-£5.7bn) because of changes in the economic outlook.
So RELATIVE TO MARCH a hole could be said to have opened up...6/12