Ben Chu
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benchu.bsky.social
Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify.

https://www.benchu.co.uk/

Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025

https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
...Note that official projections from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) suggest even granting new exploration licences would not change this sharply declining trend of North Sea oil and gas production over the coming decades www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-ins...
January 21, 2026 at 5:35 PM
...Breakdown shows it's due to the sharp decline in UK oil and gas production over that time...
January 21, 2026 at 2:53 PM
The world had 1,100GW of installed wind power in 2024 - around half of it is China 👇
ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
January 21, 2026 at 2:15 PM
WTO Stats
stats.wto.org
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Calculations here & comments/corrections welcome...

10/ docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
The US data has total bilateral EU-US trade (imports and expoerts) slightly lower at $1.5 trillion.

But either way, that would be around 2-3% of global trade in 2024 (total exports and imports combined of $66 trillion) on the basis of the WTO figures for that year...9/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
This same document estimates that “in 2024 transatlantic trade in goods and services reached over €1.68 trillion”

Note that this figure is bilateral exports and imports *combined*.

That’s equivalent to around $1.8 trillion based on the 2024 exchange rate...8/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
And this EU factsheet claims "together they [the US and EU] represent almost 30% of global trade in goods and services”...7/

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infograph...
EU-US trade: facts and figures
The EU and the US have the biggest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world. In 2023, transatlantic trade in goods and services reached €1.6 trillion.
www.consilium.europa.eu
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
There’s some separate EU analysis which supports this, calculating that the combined US and EU share of global exports was 28% and 32% of global imports in 2022...6/

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...
World trade in goods and services - an overview
description
ec.europa.eu
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
So that suggests the EU and the US export trade combined ($3.2tr + $4.5tr) was around 23% of the total ($33tr).

And the EU and the US import trade combined was around 26% of the total...5/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Total US exports to the rest of the world in that year were $3.2 trillion ($4.2 trillion in imports).

And total EU exports to the rest of the world in that year were $4.5 trillion ($4.1 trillion in imports)...4/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Here’s the figures.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) the value of total goods and services exports in 2024 was around $33 trillion (and $33 trillion in imports)...3/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
TLDR the TOTAL trade of the EU and the US with ALL COUNTRIES is possibly around 30% of GLOBAL trade.

But US and EU trade with EACH OTHER is likely less than 3% of global trade...2/
January 21, 2026 at 1:22 PM
....Also 5 key insights from the book, published by @johnmurrays.bsky.social, here 👇

bsky.app/profile/benc...
Many thanks to the Next Big Idea Club team for selecting my book, Exile Economics, as one of its monthly must-reads.

You can listen to me reading 5 key insights from the book here 🎧👇

nextbigideaclub.com/magazine/sho...
Why We Shouldn’t Give Up on Globalisation—We Just Need to Do It Better
Author Ben Chu shares 5 key insights from his new book, Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails.
nextbigideaclub.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:36 PM
...And if that piques your interest, lots of options to buy here.

The paperback edition is coming out in March 2026 👇
linktr.ee/exileeconomics
EXILE ECONOMICS | Linktree
by Ben Chu
linktr.ee
January 20, 2026 at 4:30 PM
...ICYMI here's a nice review of Exile Economics by Ferdinand Mount in the London Review of Books...

www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
January 20, 2026 at 4:30 PM
...much more detail here 👇 bsky.app/profile/benc...
How much is the Chagos deal *really* going to cost the UK?

£3.4bn or £35bn?

💵

This is a complex one - but worth unpacking.

Longish thread..🧵1/22
January 20, 2026 at 1:47 PM