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Reposted by Ben Glasner

Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

I got a PhD so I could ask ChatGPT if a bear is fat.

Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.

I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

Bottom line: AI showed flashes of potential but never threatened the humans.

Fat Bear forecasting remains a non-routine, deeply human art.

For now, our jobs—and our bears—are safe.
Humanity 1️⃣ — Terminator 0️⃣ #FatBearWeek #AI #Econsky #FutureOfWork

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

After “learning” from the failure of FBJ, the AI added a Narrative/Charisma factor. A self-named “meme coefficient.”

Then it tackled the adult bracket. The result? Last place, with 7/18 points.

Humans still reign supreme in chonk prediction.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

Our totally robust experiment:

We tested ChatGPT-5 on Fat Bear Junior, scoring cubs on heft, roundness, posture, photo angle, and notes.
It did terribly. 0-for-everything.

EIG staff on the other hand picked the right winner.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

Computers have often been used to automate routine work. But AI is shifting the boundary and it is changing which tasks humans still hold an edge in.

So we asked:
Is Fat Bear forecasting a human-advantaged task, or have the machines finally caught up?

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

Why do this?

Every job is a bundle of tasks. Some are routine (easy for machines). Others are messy, creative, and deeply human.

Predicting which chubby bear will steal the internet’s heart is as non-routine as it gets, and maybe a window into AI’s limits.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

How do you think ChatGPT-5 did?

You can read the full post here:
agglomerations.substack.com/p/fat-bear-w...

Or keep scrolling for a summary on how ChatGPT-5 fared in the greatest competition on Earth.

Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World

EIG vs ChatGPT-5: an ursine battle to decide the future

agglomerations.substack.com

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 8h

I got a PhD so I could ask ChatGPT if a bear is fat.

Like Kasparov vs. Deep Blue, the team at EIG pitted human reasoning against the machine. But our arena wasn’t a chessboard, it was the salmon-filled rivers of Alaska.

I give you: Fat Bear Week and the Fate of the World! 🐻🤖

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 20h

We’ve got an extremely fun post coming out early tomorrow morning on Agglomerations.

Subscribe: agglomerations.substack.com

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Abundant labor is not a byproduct of economic growth, it is a prerequisite. Just as physical infrastructure creates the potential for fast growth and widespread prosperity, a talented and healthy labor force helps the economy reach that potential.

https://agglomerations.substack.com/p/abundance-the-missing-piece

t.co

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Improve Immigration Policy.

America underuses global talent. Skilled immigrants innovate, patent, and start firms at high rates. Improving legal pathways can fuel the Abundance agenda.

Exceptional By Design

eig.org

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Modernize Unemployment Insurance.

The UI system is outdated and uneven across states. Reform can expand coverage to gig workers and entrepreneurs, make benefits more portable, and cushion shocks without discouraging risk-taking or career pivots toward growing industries.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Introduce a Wage Subsidy.

Boost take-home pay for low-wage workers while preserving hiring incentives.

Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 16d

The challenge: 21 million workers earn less than $16/hr, two-thirds are women, and in states like WV & LA, 1 in 5 prime-age men don’t have jobs. Too many Americans face low pay or no pay. So, let’s talk about what a wage subsidy can do.

The single best policy to help low-wage American workers

Direct, efficient, life-changing

agglomerations.substack.com

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Smooth Benefit Cliffs.

Sudden cuts to public assistance when earnings increase punish advancement and trap workers. Smoothing phase-outs would reduce “raise penalties,” support upward mobility, and help families pursue promotions, job switches, and better-paying opportunities.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Reform Occupational Licensing.

Over 1 in 5 U.S. workers need a license, often with inconsistent and excessive requirements that block mobility. Streamlining and recognizing credentials across states would open doors to middle-skill jobs and let talent move to where it’s needed.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Develop Portable Benefits.

Health and retirement benefits can trap workers in jobs they’d otherwise leave. Making benefits portable reduces “job lock” and empowers people to take risks, relocate, or pursue better matches. Check out

https://eig.org/whos-left-out-of-americas-retirement-savings-system/

t.co

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

Ban Noncompete Agreements.

Noncompetes suppress wage growth and entrepreneurship by locking talent in place. Banning them would support worker bargaining power, speed knowledge diffusion, and help new firms form and hire.

https://eig.org/policy/non-compete-reform/

t.co

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

America thrived on labor dynamism. Mid-century workers moved, switched jobs, and chased opportunity; productivity grew fast. But labor dynamism has declined, quits rates are down, and switcher premiums have faded. We need policies to get us back on track. Some Examples:

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

We should make it easier to find work, switch jobs, earn more, and match where our talents are most productive. Good policy is about letting people move, learn, and climb. Without it, reforms will stall: no housing without builders, no innovation without skilled labor.

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 5d

The Abundance agenda has spotlighted supply-side barriers—housing, energy, tech. But one crucial ingredient remains under-discussed: workers. Without a dynamic, mobile labor force, efforts to build more, innovate faster, and deploy clean energy will run into a human bottleneck🧵

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 6d

Increasing reliance on government transfer programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is shaping the politics of both parties. #SocialSecurity #Medicare #Medicaid #Politics #Economy #news

Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 13d

Feel like this write-up will remain fresh and relevant for an uncomfortably long time.

Tariffs and Manufacturing Jobs: Three Big Problems

“American steelworkers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen… They watched in anguish as foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavenge...

open.substack.com

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 13d

Yes. Nothing says “Kaldor–Hicks efficiency” like eating away at social surplus with tariffs, then using the nonexistent gains to bail out the people you just hurt.

Link in the next post.

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Reposted by Ben Glasner

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 16d

Thanks @benglasner.bsky.social & Adam Ozimek for making a compelling case for well-designed wage subsidies.

"In our version of a wage subsidy, the government sends money directly to low-wage workers in every single paycheck, raising their hourly wage."
#EconSky

Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 16d

The challenge: 21 million workers earn less than $16/hr, two-thirds are women, and in states like WV & LA, 1 in 5 prime-age men don’t have jobs. Too many Americans face low pay or no pay. So, let’s talk about what a wage subsidy can do.

The single best policy to help low-wage American workers

Direct, efficient, life-changing

agglomerations.substack.com

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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 16d

A wage subsidy is direct, efficient, and scalable:
• Expands automatically in recessions
• Adapts to shocks like automation or AI
• Lifts up struggling labor markets
It’s the clearest way to rebuild a labor market where every job pays.

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