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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19h

Hello - it hasn't gone up quite that much in the past year. Debt interest expected to be £111bn this year, up from £106bn last year. The key thing is that £111bn is more than double what we we might have reasonably expected a few years ago (>£60bn higher than the March 2022 forecast for this year).

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19h

True. Shift in spending towards food and gas..?

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 21h

I've written about the UK's productivity problem for @theobserveruk.bsky.social. Come for the comparison of the UK economy to a hedgehog, stay for the comparison of Rachel Reeves to a Dickens character.

observer.co.uk/news/busines...

In Britain’s ‘hedgehog economy’, growth is wild, spiky – ...

The spines on the OBR’s charts are a signal to the chancellor to pull all the levers to improve our growth prospects

observer.co.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22h

I did think it was weird that inflation was proving stubbornly high, but VAT receipts were coming in surprisingly low... Good news for Rachel Reeves

Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22h

There goes my long held view that cash government receipts were accurate because you just had to add some columns in a bank account

on.ft.com/3J0Y6yE ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error

ONS revises down UK government borrowing by £2bn after VAT error

[FREE TO READ] Office for National Statistics reduces estimate for current fiscal year just weeks before Rachel Reeves’ Budget

on.ft.com

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 2d

On 17 October, I'll be the least impressive panel member at this event at the LSE, debating the role of independent institutions and technocrats in guiding UK fiscal policy.

If that sounds like your idea of a good Friday night, sign up here:

www.eventbrite.com/e/a-sustaina...

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

People shout that at me everywhere I go

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

Great, thanks v much both. Will DM you!

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

You could imagine a framework with an independent forecaster, but without the emphasis on point estimates and pass-fail rules (I write as someone working on a proposal for exactly that - if either of you would be willing/keen to chat to me about it, would love that).

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

We'll be covering all sorts - pressures on the public finances, options on tax, the macro outlook, issues in gilt markets. And we'll have an ex-member of both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Budget Responsibility Committee. And there will be free coffee. Come!

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

On 16 October we're launching this year's IFS Green Budget, looking at the major challenges & choices facing the Chancellor this autumn.

Sign up for our event! Analysis from IFS & Barclays, plus reflections from Jonathan Haskel & Andy King. It'll be great. ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

IFS Green Budget 2025 | Institute for Fiscal Studies

The IFS Green Budget will assess the state of the UK economy and the government’s fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget.

ifs.org.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

Full chapter from this year's IFS Green Budget, kindly funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, and produced in association with Barclays, can be found here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Lots more still to come!

Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies

How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?

ifs.org.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

And here's perhaps the most eye-popping/worrying of all: of 15-year-olds who received both child disability living allowance (CDLA) and an EHCP (high-level special educational needs support) in 2014, *half* were not in education, employment or training (NEET) at age 22.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 5d

There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my IFS colleagues.

Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 9d

Full IMF report: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

The IFS view is set out here. Short version: there are other ways to deal with the policy volatility problem, don't need to scrap the second forecast. ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 9d

If the Chancellor does decide to move to only one economic and fiscal forecast per year (a move that would make us an international outlier), I really don't think it should be presented as being in line with IMF recommendations.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 9d

On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year...

The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 12d

Something else I hadn't clocked until now: the UK is no longer the second biggest spender on defence within NATO. We've been overtaken by Germany.

Full chapter from this year's IFS Green Budget is here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 12d

Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 12d

My understanding is that it will be possible to continue tracking children in the same way, and so in 6 years we will be able to look at educational outcomes at age 11, and then keep tracking into secondary school. I don't know if there's plans to link to benefits data but I hope so!

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 13d

You can read the piece here: observer.co.uk/news/politic...

Remember, remember Liz Truss this November | The Observer

Three years after the former PM sparked an economic crisis, here’s how the chancellor can avoid the same mistakes

observer.co.uk

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 13d

Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.

This point is especially important.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 14d

Broader point: null results are important!

I suspect this will get far less attention than studies which find "welfare cut X led to horrible outcome Y" or similar. But to set smarter policy, we also need to know what doesn't have an impact on the outcomes we care about! [3/3]

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 14d

... two-child limit would be a cost-effective way to reduce child poverty. Perfectly reasonable to think that's reason alone to scrap it, and there may well be wider benefits not studied here. But it's not a magic policy lever that will help deliver all objectives at once. [2/3]

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 14d

Key charts from a great thread. Careful analysis by my
@theifs.bsky.social colleagues shows that the two-child benefit limit has had no detectable impact on school-readiness at age 5, including among the poorer children most likely to be affected.

Key policy takeaway: scrapping the ... [1/3]

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14d

Even zooming in on poorer groups who are more likely to see larger income falls due to the policy, we still see no evidence of adverse effects on school readiness.

Chart shows the proportion of third and subsequent children achieving a good level of development by age 5, by date of birth relative to 6 April 2017, for families previously entitled to free school meals and those born in the 20% most deprived areas. Title states: "Children in families already entitled to free school meals or born in the poorest areas also saw no significant impact on school readiness from the two-child limit."

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22d

... means larger interest losses on those gilts -- losses which score against borrowing, and make the government's current budget target harder to meet. This all gets a bit complicated and messy, but it's an under-discussed determinant of the government's fiscal position. 3/3

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