Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦
@blakeshaffer.bsky.social
Associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary. Former energy trader.
blakeshaffer.ca
blakeshaffer.ca
Natgas futures jumped nearly 75% in the past 3 days with the big winter storm coming.
But if you’re in Alberta and on a floating rate, you still have nothing to fear. AECO gas now participating in the price surge. Still under $3 per GJ.
But if you’re in Alberta and on a floating rate, you still have nothing to fear. AECO gas now participating in the price surge. Still under $3 per GJ.
January 22, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Natgas futures jumped nearly 75% in the past 3 days with the big winter storm coming.
But if you’re in Alberta and on a floating rate, you still have nothing to fear. AECO gas now participating in the price surge. Still under $3 per GJ.
But if you’re in Alberta and on a floating rate, you still have nothing to fear. AECO gas now participating in the price surge. Still under $3 per GJ.
Lindsey knew what was coming…
January 21, 2026 at 5:17 AM
Lindsey knew what was coming…
The mood right now in Canada 🇨🇦
Our national newspaper front page:
Our national newspaper front page:
January 20, 2026 at 4:22 PM
The mood right now in Canada 🇨🇦
Our national newspaper front page:
Our national newspaper front page:
US 10 year yields goin fer a rip 📈
This will be one to watch if foreign govt’s start selling treasuries…
This will be one to watch if foreign govt’s start selling treasuries…
January 20, 2026 at 1:19 PM
US 10 year yields goin fer a rip 📈
This will be one to watch if foreign govt’s start selling treasuries…
This will be one to watch if foreign govt’s start selling treasuries…
Last one, the view on % electrified across Canada varies greatly by province.
Quebec is a global leader in this regard on account of their mainly electric heat and growing EV shares. Prairie provs, with cheaper natgas, lag far behind.
[5/5]
Quebec is a global leader in this regard on account of their mainly electric heat and growing EV shares. Prairie provs, with cheaper natgas, lag far behind.
[5/5]
January 19, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Last one, the view on % electrified across Canada varies greatly by province.
Quebec is a global leader in this regard on account of their mainly electric heat and growing EV shares. Prairie provs, with cheaper natgas, lag far behind.
[5/5]
Quebec is a global leader in this regard on account of their mainly electric heat and growing EV shares. Prairie provs, with cheaper natgas, lag far behind.
[5/5]
Turning to the 2nd dimension: % electrified
Here China really stands out for its speed of change. And these data plotted end in 2023; continued rapid growth last 2 years has pushed them even higher.
This chart will be interesting to watch as transportation and heating electrify, and where.
[4/5]
Here China really stands out for its speed of change. And these data plotted end in 2023; continued rapid growth last 2 years has pushed them even higher.
This chart will be interesting to watch as transportation and heating electrify, and where.
[4/5]
January 19, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Turning to the 2nd dimension: % electrified
Here China really stands out for its speed of change. And these data plotted end in 2023; continued rapid growth last 2 years has pushed them even higher.
This chart will be interesting to watch as transportation and heating electrify, and where.
[4/5]
Here China really stands out for its speed of change. And these data plotted end in 2023; continued rapid growth last 2 years has pushed them even higher.
This chart will be interesting to watch as transportation and heating electrify, and where.
[4/5]
A closer look at Canada shows a success story this century. Alberta's electricity emissions have been cut in half. Falling across the board. SK now the dirtiest remaining.
[3/5]
[3/5]
January 19, 2026 at 4:57 PM
A closer look at Canada shows a success story this century. Alberta's electricity emissions have been cut in half. Falling across the board. SK now the dirtiest remaining.
[3/5]
[3/5]
Looking at that % clean around the world, two things caught my eye:
1. China has basically reached the level of the US in terms of % zero-ghg generation.
2. Small recent dip in Canadian % clean. (Anyone want to guess why?)
[2/5]
1. China has basically reached the level of the US in terms of % zero-ghg generation.
2. Small recent dip in Canadian % clean. (Anyone want to guess why?)
[2/5]
January 19, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Looking at that % clean around the world, two things caught my eye:
1. China has basically reached the level of the US in terms of % zero-ghg generation.
2. Small recent dip in Canadian % clean. (Anyone want to guess why?)
[2/5]
1. China has basically reached the level of the US in terms of % zero-ghg generation.
2. Small recent dip in Canadian % clean. (Anyone want to guess why?)
[2/5]
Working on a presentation today on the two dimensions of "Age of Electricity": make electricity cleaner, and use more of it.
Short thread of some initial charts. Open to suggestions...
First up: the two dimensions in one chart. Canada/France clean, but China zooming ahead on electrification.
1/5
Short thread of some initial charts. Open to suggestions...
First up: the two dimensions in one chart. Canada/France clean, but China zooming ahead on electrification.
1/5
January 19, 2026 at 4:57 PM
Working on a presentation today on the two dimensions of "Age of Electricity": make electricity cleaner, and use more of it.
Short thread of some initial charts. Open to suggestions...
First up: the two dimensions in one chart. Canada/France clean, but China zooming ahead on electrification.
1/5
Short thread of some initial charts. Open to suggestions...
First up: the two dimensions in one chart. Canada/France clean, but China zooming ahead on electrification.
1/5
The stock market is not liking Cdn oil this morning.
I don’t see the meaningful foreign investment coming any time soon to bring more VZ oil back to market as fast as the market is implying.
Probably the surest impact of the US intervention in Venezuela is the final death knell for Keystone XL.
I don’t see the meaningful foreign investment coming any time soon to bring more VZ oil back to market as fast as the market is implying.
Probably the surest impact of the US intervention in Venezuela is the final death knell for Keystone XL.
January 5, 2026 at 3:17 PM
The stock market is not liking Cdn oil this morning.
I don’t see the meaningful foreign investment coming any time soon to bring more VZ oil back to market as fast as the market is implying.
Probably the surest impact of the US intervention in Venezuela is the final death knell for Keystone XL.
I don’t see the meaningful foreign investment coming any time soon to bring more VZ oil back to market as fast as the market is implying.
Probably the surest impact of the US intervention in Venezuela is the final death knell for Keystone XL.
Just completely unhinged behaviour.
It’s been clear for a while that the US role of global hegemon was nearing its end. This punctuates it.
End of an empire shit going on.
It’s been clear for a while that the US role of global hegemon was nearing its end. This punctuates it.
End of an empire shit going on.
January 5, 2026 at 3:01 AM
Just completely unhinged behaviour.
It’s been clear for a while that the US role of global hegemon was nearing its end. This punctuates it.
End of an empire shit going on.
It’s been clear for a while that the US role of global hegemon was nearing its end. This punctuates it.
End of an empire shit going on.
Among the list of demands from Trump (to extend CUSMA) is resolving a dispute on the Montana/Alberta power line.
December 18, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Among the list of demands from Trump (to extend CUSMA) is resolving a dispute on the Montana/Alberta power line.
In terms of average megawatt-hours of generation, not shares, gas now averages over 8,100 MWh and renewables are over 2,200 MWh.
December 15, 2025 at 10:20 PM
In terms of average megawatt-hours of generation, not shares, gas now averages over 8,100 MWh and renewables are over 2,200 MWh.
As Alberta completes its first full year without coal in its power supply mix, renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) have reached 22% of total generation and natural gas makes up 78%.
December 15, 2025 at 10:19 PM
As Alberta completes its first full year without coal in its power supply mix, renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) have reached 22% of total generation and natural gas makes up 78%.
On this first night of Hanukkah I’m thinking about Ahmed al Ahmed, the brave Lebanese-Australian who reminds us that despite all the terrible horror—in Bondi today, in Gaza, in Ukraine, in Darfur…—that there is still decency and goodness in this world.
Thank you Ahmed.
Thank you Ahmed.
December 15, 2025 at 3:57 AM
On this first night of Hanukkah I’m thinking about Ahmed al Ahmed, the brave Lebanese-Australian who reminds us that despite all the terrible horror—in Bondi today, in Gaza, in Ukraine, in Darfur…—that there is still decency and goodness in this world.
Thank you Ahmed.
Thank you Ahmed.
Every $1 per barrel drop in the oil price (for the whole year) is $750M less revenue for the govt.
Budget 25/26 was based on $68 WTI. Current price is $58.
Budget 25/26 was based on $68 WTI. Current price is $58.
December 9, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Every $1 per barrel drop in the oil price (for the whole year) is $750M less revenue for the govt.
Budget 25/26 was based on $68 WTI. Current price is $58.
Budget 25/26 was based on $68 WTI. Current price is $58.
All I heard was this:
😊
😊
November 27, 2025 at 6:18 PM
All I heard was this:
😊
😊
Great to see that BC-AB-SK interprovincial electricity transmission made today’s MOU announcement 🥳
November 27, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Great to see that BC-AB-SK interprovincial electricity transmission made today’s MOU announcement 🥳
Alberta’s emissions performance credits, which can be used to comply with the industrial carbon pricing system, are now trading at just C$17 per tonne.
The frozen $95 per tonne headline price is largely irrelevant.
(Data from ICE/NGX as of 11/25)
The frozen $95 per tonne headline price is largely irrelevant.
(Data from ICE/NGX as of 11/25)
November 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Alberta’s emissions performance credits, which can be used to comply with the industrial carbon pricing system, are now trading at just C$17 per tonne.
The frozen $95 per tonne headline price is largely irrelevant.
(Data from ICE/NGX as of 11/25)
The frozen $95 per tonne headline price is largely irrelevant.
(Data from ICE/NGX as of 11/25)
Just came across this prescient old pic of a bus rolling past Trump Tower on 5th Ave in 2017.
November 23, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Just came across this prescient old pic of a bus rolling past Trump Tower on 5th Ave in 2017.
2/ Between fixed & floating, it's a question of risk tolerance and how much you want to pay attention.
It's kind of a wash right now for the next few years especially if you extend into 2028 when futures point to higher prices.
The next few months may sting on floating but win again in the spring.
It's kind of a wash right now for the next few years especially if you extend into 2028 when futures point to higher prices.
The next few months may sting on floating but win again in the spring.
November 14, 2025 at 9:30 PM
2/ Between fixed & floating, it's a question of risk tolerance and how much you want to pay attention.
It's kind of a wash right now for the next few years especially if you extend into 2028 when futures point to higher prices.
The next few months may sting on floating but win again in the spring.
It's kind of a wash right now for the next few years especially if you extend into 2028 when futures point to higher prices.
The next few months may sting on floating but win again in the spring.
This quote sums up why @jeromyyyc.bsky.social got my vote for YYC mayor yesterday.
We have too many rigidly ideological people in politics today; glad to reward someone demonstrating the ability to change. Now, to see it!
(Doesn’t hurt that he referenced a John Maynard Keynes quote too!)
We have too many rigidly ideological people in politics today; glad to reward someone demonstrating the ability to change. Now, to see it!
(Doesn’t hurt that he referenced a John Maynard Keynes quote too!)
October 21, 2025 at 8:36 PM
This quote sums up why @jeromyyyc.bsky.social got my vote for YYC mayor yesterday.
We have too many rigidly ideological people in politics today; glad to reward someone demonstrating the ability to change. Now, to see it!
(Doesn’t hurt that he referenced a John Maynard Keynes quote too!)
We have too many rigidly ideological people in politics today; glad to reward someone demonstrating the ability to change. Now, to see it!
(Doesn’t hurt that he referenced a John Maynard Keynes quote too!)