Bob Hayes
@bobhayes.bsky.social
Yank in London who trained myself to say "football." Analytics professional and hobbyist. Used to write things, many of which are still relevant, here: https://fromthebyline.substack.com/
Ha! I just posted this in their Discord.
I think they’re correct that the Havertz/Gyökeres combo is collectively a bad platoon of contracts, just depends how you want to apportion the blame. It’s also fair to think Havertz is great (as I do) but also think he’s overpaid.
I think they’re correct that the Havertz/Gyökeres combo is collectively a bad platoon of contracts, just depends how you want to apportion the blame. It’s also fair to think Havertz is great (as I do) but also think he’s overpaid.
October 17, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Ha! I just posted this in their Discord.
I think they’re correct that the Havertz/Gyökeres combo is collectively a bad platoon of contracts, just depends how you want to apportion the blame. It’s also fair to think Havertz is great (as I do) but also think he’s overpaid.
I think they’re correct that the Havertz/Gyökeres combo is collectively a bad platoon of contracts, just depends how you want to apportion the blame. It’s also fair to think Havertz is great (as I do) but also think he’s overpaid.
FIFA are absolutely taking the piss by advertising the “affordability” of the Category 4 tickets, and this is what they look like
October 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
FIFA are absolutely taking the piss by advertising the “affordability” of the Category 4 tickets, and this is what they look like
Manchester City followed up a classic chokehold first half with this
October 5, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Manchester City followed up a classic chokehold first half with this
lol I forgot the last one. A full picture:
October 5, 2025 at 3:08 PM
lol I forgot the last one. A full picture:
Aston Villa in the second half, up a man against perhaps the worst team in the league
September 21, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Aston Villa in the second half, up a man against perhaps the worst team in the league
BOB HAYES'S OFFICIAL PREMIER LEAGUE 2025-26 LEAGUE TABLE PREDICTION
August 15, 2025 at 4:37 PM
BOB HAYES'S OFFICIAL PREMIER LEAGUE 2025-26 LEAGUE TABLE PREDICTION
More sports should let fans roll up for free to see some of the best athletes in the world in the final stage of the biggest race weaving through the narrow hilly streets of Montmartre with Sacré-Cœur as the backdrop.
Such a fun day, such a fun sport.
Such a fun day, such a fun sport.
July 27, 2025 at 10:02 PM
More sports should let fans roll up for free to see some of the best athletes in the world in the final stage of the biggest race weaving through the narrow hilly streets of Montmartre with Sacré-Cœur as the backdrop.
Such a fun day, such a fun sport.
Such a fun day, such a fun sport.
Obviously an impossible task, just had to commit to a 10 among the 30-40 that all had rightful claims and move on with my life
June 23, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Obviously an impossible task, just had to commit to a 10 among the 30-40 that all had rightful claims and move on with my life
Brutal start to the season for Arsenal... but I think that works in their favor. Gotta play them eventually and Arsenal are relatively fully formed.
June 18, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Brutal start to the season for Arsenal... but I think that works in their favor. Gotta play them eventually and Arsenal are relatively fully formed.
There's just no way Chelsea playing their starting XI in front of this against an MLS club in June after playing twice a week since last August and starting it up again this August is good for the game.
June 17, 2025 at 9:36 AM
There's just no way Chelsea playing their starting XI in front of this against an MLS club in June after playing twice a week since last August and starting it up again this August is good for the game.
Good question! Ultimately it would vary. You could model x%min for a transfer, inputs being fee, buying club table position, position, etc.
One factor is injuries give players a lower % of min than most would guess.
Here is Liverpool this season, PL only. Generally a starter should give you >70%.
One factor is injuries give players a lower % of min than most would guess.
Here is Liverpool this season, PL only. Generally a starter should give you >70%.
June 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Good question! Ultimately it would vary. You could model x%min for a transfer, inputs being fee, buying club table position, position, etc.
One factor is injuries give players a lower % of min than most would guess.
Here is Liverpool this season, PL only. Generally a starter should give you >70%.
One factor is injuries give players a lower % of min than most would guess.
Here is Liverpool this season, PL only. Generally a starter should give you >70%.
Nice chart to keep in the back pocket amid an otherwise somewhat shaky article about signing xG overperformers such as Cunha and Mbeumo
www.nytimes.com/athletic/640...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/640...
June 12, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Nice chart to keep in the back pocket amid an otherwise somewhat shaky article about signing xG overperformers such as Cunha and Mbeumo
www.nytimes.com/athletic/640...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/640...
oh god, i made the mistake of reading on
June 6, 2025 at 12:59 PM
oh god, i made the mistake of reading on
This is what happens when you get the typical over-optimism about the latest transfer combined with a guy finishing way above his xG combined with people liking the guy whose name they know who played for the cute little club combined with English. This is all hyperbole.
June 6, 2025 at 12:57 PM
This is what happens when you get the typical over-optimism about the latest transfer combined with a guy finishing way above his xG combined with people liking the guy whose name they know who played for the cute little club combined with English. This is all hyperbole.
The club have done a nice job with this. Watch party across the whole club level. Vibes are good.
May 7, 2025 at 6:47 PM
The club have done a nice job with this. Watch party across the whole club level. Vibes are good.
Interesting evening to be here!
May 7, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Interesting evening to be here!
“We have Arrizabalaga at home”
Arrizabalaga at home:
Arrizabalaga at home:
May 1, 2025 at 7:00 PM
“We have Arrizabalaga at home”
Arrizabalaga at home:
Arrizabalaga at home:
Assists have been down vs. xAG for most of this season, which you can't blame Palmer for.
Goals vs. xG are down only of late.
His xNumbers overperformance was simultaneous to his xNumbers being at their peak, which compounded overall output and projection. They've since fallen simultaneously.
Goals vs. xG are down only of late.
His xNumbers overperformance was simultaneous to his xNumbers being at their peak, which compounded overall output and projection. They've since fallen simultaneously.
April 22, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Assists have been down vs. xAG for most of this season, which you can't blame Palmer for.
Goals vs. xG are down only of late.
His xNumbers overperformance was simultaneous to his xNumbers being at their peak, which compounded overall output and projection. They've since fallen simultaneously.
Goals vs. xG are down only of late.
His xNumbers overperformance was simultaneous to his xNumbers being at their peak, which compounded overall output and projection. They've since fallen simultaneously.
Cole Palmer's rough 2025 is a story of both legitimate performance decline and underperforming the xNumbers. He's indeed been playing worse, but still playing well.
Dropping from ~1.0 p90 to ~0.6 p90 is 99th percentile down to ~80th percentile, i.e. superstar to very good player.
Dropping from ~1.0 p90 to ~0.6 p90 is 99th percentile down to ~80th percentile, i.e. superstar to very good player.
April 22, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Cole Palmer's rough 2025 is a story of both legitimate performance decline and underperforming the xNumbers. He's indeed been playing worse, but still playing well.
Dropping from ~1.0 p90 to ~0.6 p90 is 99th percentile down to ~80th percentile, i.e. superstar to very good player.
Dropping from ~1.0 p90 to ~0.6 p90 is 99th percentile down to ~80th percentile, i.e. superstar to very good player.
I know where I’ll be Sunday, April 13th at 10:55 PM PDT
April 6, 2025 at 12:16 PM
I know where I’ll be Sunday, April 13th at 10:55 PM PDT
To the moon!
At this rate, my 7 years of aggressively paying down my American student loans will only take 6.5 years!
At this rate, my 7 years of aggressively paying down my American student loans will only take 6.5 years!
April 3, 2025 at 2:45 PM
To the moon!
At this rate, my 7 years of aggressively paying down my American student loans will only take 6.5 years!
At this rate, my 7 years of aggressively paying down my American student loans will only take 6.5 years!
The USMNT's talent level has skyrocketed over the past two decades.
The USMNT's performance level has basically not changed at all.
The USMNT's performance level has basically not changed at all.
March 26, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The USMNT's talent level has skyrocketed over the past two decades.
The USMNT's performance level has basically not changed at all.
The USMNT's performance level has basically not changed at all.
This is regarding Chelsea, from David Ornstein.
Gonna be funny when Chelsea make the BIG STRIKER SIGNING everyone is clamoring for, and it's someone who is clearly worse than their current striker.
Gonna be funny when Chelsea make the BIG STRIKER SIGNING everyone is clamoring for, and it's someone who is clearly worse than their current striker.
March 24, 2025 at 12:50 PM
This is regarding Chelsea, from David Ornstein.
Gonna be funny when Chelsea make the BIG STRIKER SIGNING everyone is clamoring for, and it's someone who is clearly worse than their current striker.
Gonna be funny when Chelsea make the BIG STRIKER SIGNING everyone is clamoring for, and it's someone who is clearly worse than their current striker.
The Dortmund days increasingly feel like a long lost mirage
March 18, 2025 at 6:21 PM
The Dortmund days increasingly feel like a long lost mirage