Bob Hayes
@bobhayes.bsky.social
Yank in London who trained myself to say "football." Analytics professional and hobbyist. Used to write things, many of which are still relevant, here: https://fromthebyline.substack.com/
Is 2 shots for 0.07 xG in a half when you’ve been desperately chasing a goal the whole time at home against a bad team good?
November 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Is 2 shots for 0.07 xG in a half when you’ve been desperately chasing a goal the whole time at home against a bad team good?
Arsenal hath seized the European throne
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
November 26, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Arsenal hath seized the European throne
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
Declan Rice is simply never going to not play an available minute for club or country
November 26, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Declan Rice is simply never going to not play an available minute for club or country
Quietly insane assist by Rice
November 23, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Quietly insane assist by Rice
Merino to Trossard, just like we all pictured in August
November 23, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Merino to Trossard, just like we all pictured in August
When Manchester City are in full swing in possession like tonight, I don’t even really know what you do about it. This is without Rodri!
November 9, 2025 at 5:19 PM
When Manchester City are in full swing in possession like tonight, I don’t even really know what you do about it. This is without Rodri!
Doku is just a good player now. He was “all spice no sizzle” for years, but it’s coming together.
November 9, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Doku is just a good player now. He was “all spice no sizzle” for years, but it’s coming together.
People often refer to a team as “imbalanced” when it vaguely has better attackers than defenders, but this Real Madrid team is what imbalanced really is.
They’re often so good it doesn’t really matter, but the positional layout of talent is far from optimal.
They’re often so good it doesn’t really matter, but the positional layout of talent is far from optimal.
November 4, 2025 at 9:15 PM
People often refer to a team as “imbalanced” when it vaguely has better attackers than defenders, but this Real Madrid team is what imbalanced really is.
They’re often so good it doesn’t really matter, but the positional layout of talent is far from optimal.
They’re often so good it doesn’t really matter, but the positional layout of talent is far from optimal.
UEFA officials have just completely lost the plot on what the handball rule is meant to be. It’s absurd how strict these calls are.
November 4, 2025 at 8:32 PM
UEFA officials have just completely lost the plot on what the handball rule is meant to be. It’s absurd how strict these calls are.
Reposted by Bob Hayes
I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice
October 19, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice
The Boring Team is Tottenham Hotspur
also they are genuinely bad
also they are genuinely bad
November 1, 2025 at 7:29 PM
The Boring Team is Tottenham Hotspur
also they are genuinely bad
also they are genuinely bad
Crystal Palace have been legitimately good this year, but I’d be shocked if they don’t collapse from exhaustion.
It’s a ton of games to play the same 14 guys, none of whom have played twice a week before.
It’s a ton of games to play the same 14 guys, none of whom have played twice a week before.
October 29, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Crystal Palace have been legitimately good this year, but I’d be shocked if they don’t collapse from exhaustion.
It’s a ton of games to play the same 14 guys, none of whom have played twice a week before.
It’s a ton of games to play the same 14 guys, none of whom have played twice a week before.
Reposted by Bob Hayes
a new Expecting Goals newsletter!
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
Expecting Goals Premier League Team Ratings
A new method for evaluating soccer teams in the major European Leagues, and an opportunity to discover whether I am biased against your favorite team or not.
www.expectinggoals.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:18 PM
a new Expecting Goals newsletter!
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
Elo -- the almighty, inarguable measurement of team quality -- hath declared that current Arsenal are:
1. the best team in the world
2. the best Arsenal team since records began in the 1940s
3. the 10th-best team of all time
clubelo.com
1. the best team in the world
2. the best Arsenal team since records began in the 1940s
3. the 10th-best team of all time
clubelo.com
Football Club Elo Ratings
clubelo.com
October 23, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Elo -- the almighty, inarguable measurement of team quality -- hath declared that current Arsenal are:
1. the best team in the world
2. the best Arsenal team since records began in the 1940s
3. the 10th-best team of all time
clubelo.com
1. the best team in the world
2. the best Arsenal team since records began in the 1940s
3. the 10th-best team of all time
clubelo.com
I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice
October 19, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice
Tottenham have broadly played better against a theoretically solid team, something I am not sure they can say any other time this season.
People are gonna be mad about this game, which I think they’re ultimately correct on — Spurs have been bad this season — but not because of this game.
People are gonna be mad about this game, which I think they’re ultimately correct on — Spurs have been bad this season — but not because of this game.
October 19, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Tottenham have broadly played better against a theoretically solid team, something I am not sure they can say any other time this season.
People are gonna be mad about this game, which I think they’re ultimately correct on — Spurs have been bad this season — but not because of this game.
People are gonna be mad about this game, which I think they’re ultimately correct on — Spurs have been bad this season — but not because of this game.
Great listen for all the soccer sickos out there
It's that time again!
The second annual @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social Worst Contracts Draft with guests @wertwhile.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
our picks for the worst player contracts in the Premier League: open.spotify.com/episode/6ZNH...
The second annual @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social Worst Contracts Draft with guests @wertwhile.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
our picks for the worst player contracts in the Premier League: open.spotify.com/episode/6ZNH...
2025 Worst Contracts Draft, Part I
open.spotify.com
October 17, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Great listen for all the soccer sickos out there
This is a window where RedZone should not be showing Tennessee-LV unless it’s a major play or both the other games are in timeout.
My one complaint of RedZone is that they treat games too equally in relevance/interest.
My one complaint of RedZone is that they treat games too equally in relevance/interest.
October 12, 2025 at 9:00 PM
This is a window where RedZone should not be showing Tennessee-LV unless it’s a major play or both the other games are in timeout.
My one complaint of RedZone is that they treat games too equally in relevance/interest.
My one complaint of RedZone is that they treat games too equally in relevance/interest.
It is remarkable the degree to which the combination of FIFA and Trump have made me resent the upcoming World Cup, which should be basically the most exciting sporting event of my lifetime.
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
A World Cup preying on Fomo: Fifa’s 2026 ticket scheme is a late-capitalist hellscape
NFTs, dynamic pricing and double resale fees have turned the 2026 World Cup into a fintech carnival where fandom meets late-capitalist absurdity
www.theguardian.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
It is remarkable the degree to which the combination of FIFA and Trump have made me resent the upcoming World Cup, which should be basically the most exciting sporting event of my lifetime.
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
www.theguardian.com/football/202...
Fascinating one from @dkthomp.bsky.social. I am most struck by the degree to which *social* media has entropy'd itself into atomized, mindless scrolling of inessential content from strangers. www.derekthompson.org/p/why-everyt...
Everything Is Television
A theory of culture and attention
www.derekthompson.org
October 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Fascinating one from @dkthomp.bsky.social. I am most struck by the degree to which *social* media has entropy'd itself into atomized, mindless scrolling of inessential content from strangers. www.derekthompson.org/p/why-everyt...
Excellent ChatGPT use case I've discovered: my personal sommelier
I've done many versions of essentially uploading a wine menu and telling it what I plan to eat, with various thoughts around preferences, budget, etc., and it does an excellent job of talking through the different options.
I've done many versions of essentially uploading a wine menu and telling it what I plan to eat, with various thoughts around preferences, budget, etc., and it does an excellent job of talking through the different options.
October 10, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Excellent ChatGPT use case I've discovered: my personal sommelier
I've done many versions of essentially uploading a wine menu and telling it what I plan to eat, with various thoughts around preferences, budget, etc., and it does an excellent job of talking through the different options.
I've done many versions of essentially uploading a wine menu and telling it what I plan to eat, with various thoughts around preferences, budget, etc., and it does an excellent job of talking through the different options.
Reposted by Bob Hayes
God, It's Brutal Out Here: lindseyadler.substack.com/p/god-its-br...
October 5, 2025 at 2:28 PM
God, It's Brutal Out Here: lindseyadler.substack.com/p/god-its-br...
Manchester City followed up a classic chokehold first half with this
October 5, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Manchester City followed up a classic chokehold first half with this
Brentford need to hire a set piece coach
October 5, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Brentford need to hire a set piece coach
