Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
Pinned
How Zohran Mamdani Won, and What the 2025 Election in New York Can Teach Us About the National Political Environment
More than you think, but not in the way you’re thinking.
www.expectinggoals.com
my complete, map-filled, analysis of the 2025 election in New York City
-How Zohran won the primary
-How Zohran won the general (different story!)
-How this election, beneath the surface, actually offers some of the best evidence of a developing blue wave www.expectinggoals.com/p/how-zohran...
-How Zohran won the primary
-How Zohran won the general (different story!)
-How this election, beneath the surface, actually offers some of the best evidence of a developing blue wave www.expectinggoals.com/p/how-zohran...
Reposted by Michael Caley
it's truly straight out of a passio except I don't think Renee Good had any idea she was about to die
but to see a woman say with kindness "I'm not mad at you" before being murdered by state authorities, who have now gone on to claim her killing was just and right, and we're here making the case she was acting with righteousness and killed unjustly
this is just Martyrdom
this is just Martyrdom
January 9, 2026 at 7:45 PM
it's truly straight out of a passio except I don't think Renee Good had any idea she was about to die
I wrote a book about ancient Christian martyrdom and this is really sticking with me
the stories of martyrs emphasized their righteousness and self-control in the face of state authorities who lacked both
early Christians sought to train themselves to replicate that way of being from the stories
the stories of martyrs emphasized their righteousness and self-control in the face of state authorities who lacked both
early Christians sought to train themselves to replicate that way of being from the stories
January 9, 2026 at 7:32 PM
I wrote a book about ancient Christian martyrdom and this is really sticking with me
the stories of martyrs emphasized their righteousness and self-control in the face of state authorities who lacked both
early Christians sought to train themselves to replicate that way of being from the stories
the stories of martyrs emphasized their righteousness and self-control in the face of state authorities who lacked both
early Christians sought to train themselves to replicate that way of being from the stories
Reposted by Michael Caley
I don't know what her religious views were and of course that's not the point, but this is what actual Christian martyrdom looks like.
And Renee Good’s last words appear to be “We’re not mad at you.”
In the video that the shooter took, which I believe was leaked to be exculpatory, he appears to yell “fucking bitch” after he shoots Renee Good.
January 9, 2026 at 7:17 PM
I don't know what her religious views were and of course that's not the point, but this is what actual Christian martyrdom looks like.
Reposted by Michael Caley
alternate timeline where fifa let fabio capello give him a handful of caps and mikel arteta is on course to become the first english manager to win the premier league.
January 9, 2026 at 6:54 PM
alternate timeline where fifa let fabio capello give him a handful of caps and mikel arteta is on course to become the first english manager to win the premier league.
Reposted by Michael Caley
I love passing this bridge and realizing that if a whole city can be this petty, I am not holding onto too many grudges.
January 9, 2026 at 5:18 PM
I love passing this bridge and realizing that if a whole city can be this petty, I am not holding onto too many grudges.
kind of perversely interested in what happens if the Free Press pivots from hyperfocusing on the specific culture war grievances of rich moderates, to Active Regime Propaganda
Meanwhile, this is how Weiss’ team is covering Renee Good’s murder today
January 9, 2026 at 5:47 PM
kind of perversely interested in what happens if the Free Press pivots from hyperfocusing on the specific culture war grievances of rich moderates, to Active Regime Propaganda
Reposted by Michael Caley
you know how if you try and make LLMs more racist, they also end up more sexist and pro-genocide? this is the human example of that. evil isn't a single thing, if you start down one path you keep ending up at the same destination.
January 9, 2026 at 4:38 PM
you know how if you try and make LLMs more racist, they also end up more sexist and pro-genocide? this is the human example of that. evil isn't a single thing, if you start down one path you keep ending up at the same destination.
big tech cannot police itself and needs the government to do it for them, for the safety of children and for the good of society
Platform Temperance Now
Platform Temperance Now
New: Trio of Dem senators urge Apple and Google to enforce their own terms of service and ban X, Grok apps for their flood of nonconsensual sexual imagery.
I've repeatedly asked both Apple and Google about this for three days. They're completely silent, seemingly hoping the question just goes away.
I've repeatedly asked both Apple and Google about this for three days. They're completely silent, seemingly hoping the question just goes away.
Senators urged Apple and Google to remove X and Grok from app stores over sexual deepfakes
“Turning a blind eye to X’s egregious behavior would make a mockery of your moderation
practices,” three Democratic senators wrote to Apple’s and Google’s CEOs.
www.nbcnews.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:27 PM
big tech cannot police itself and needs the government to do it for them, for the safety of children and for the good of society
Platform Temperance Now
Platform Temperance Now
wattba (derogatory)
Odds of Trump’s tariffs being upheld by Supreme Court jump ahead of potential ruling later today
January 9, 2026 at 2:50 PM
wattba (derogatory)
Reposted by Michael Caley
I spoke to @ishaantharoor.bsky.social about what the US looks like now, seen from Latin America. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
Column | Trump’s anti-globalism looks like old-school Yankee imperialism
Opportunistic imperialism. Personalist dictatorship. There are myriad phrases to describe what’s emerging in the United States, and they’re not flattering.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:28 PM
I spoke to @ishaantharoor.bsky.social about what the US looks like now, seen from Latin America. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
Reposted by Michael Caley
I'm going to be very blunt here: headlines like this and articles like this are a significant part of our media problem because they make people believe things that aren't true
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
www.independent.co.uk
January 9, 2026 at 12:15 PM
I'm going to be very blunt here: headlines like this and articles like this are a significant part of our media problem because they make people believe things that aren't true
I am trying to understand the jobs numbers
+50k new jobs
-0.1% change in unemployment rate
+0.1% change in prime age employment/population ratio
the only way I can square this circle is to say the US has radically slowed working age population growth? bsky.app/profile/benc...
+50k new jobs
-0.1% change in unemployment rate
+0.1% change in prime age employment/population ratio
the only way I can square this circle is to say the US has radically slowed working age population growth? bsky.app/profile/benc...
U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M11 Results
www.bls.gov
January 9, 2026 at 1:48 PM
I am trying to understand the jobs numbers
+50k new jobs
-0.1% change in unemployment rate
+0.1% change in prime age employment/population ratio
the only way I can square this circle is to say the US has radically slowed working age population growth? bsky.app/profile/benc...
+50k new jobs
-0.1% change in unemployment rate
+0.1% change in prime age employment/population ratio
the only way I can square this circle is to say the US has radically slowed working age population growth? bsky.app/profile/benc...
Reposted by Michael Caley
Think about the mindset, and the expectation of immunity, of someone who texts this to friends.
January 9, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Think about the mindset, and the expectation of immunity, of someone who texts this to friends.
Reposted by Michael Caley
Geographically attractive rather than immediately economically attractive for oil companies is the broad conclusion of this Odd Lots podcast. Sanctions, blockades, infrastructure, high breakeven costs of heavy crude, geopolitical risks are all headaches. A lot is just Trump's personal whims.
NEW ODD LOTS:
What Maduro's capture means for the oil market.
We talked to the great @gbrew24.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
What Maduro's capture means for the oil market.
We talked to the great @gbrew24.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
This Is What Maduro's Arrest Means for the Oil Market
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 01/07/2026 · 47m
podcasts.apple.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Geographically attractive rather than immediately economically attractive for oil companies is the broad conclusion of this Odd Lots podcast. Sanctions, blockades, infrastructure, high breakeven costs of heavy crude, geopolitical risks are all headaches. A lot is just Trump's personal whims.
one of the responses to this correct point is "learn to code" but leftistly
good sign of an ideological cul-de-sac
good sign of an ideological cul-de-sac
“AI can only produce buggy code” is the new “AI can only draw deformed hands” btw, update your priors now so you don’t get caught massively offsides in the next six months.
January 9, 2026 at 1:07 PM
one of the responses to this correct point is "learn to code" but leftistly
good sign of an ideological cul-de-sac
good sign of an ideological cul-de-sac
Reposted by Michael Caley
“AI can only produce buggy code” is the new “AI can only draw deformed hands” btw, update your priors now so you don’t get caught massively offsides in the next six months.
January 9, 2026 at 12:39 PM
“AI can only produce buggy code” is the new “AI can only draw deformed hands” btw, update your priors now so you don’t get caught massively offsides in the next six months.
what we clearly need is a plan to restructure internal immigration enforcement and regulation, purge, reorient, and restrict ICE and CBP, that can replace a slogan that is both maximalist and insufficient
Continue to think that saying “abolish ICE” without explaining how you’ll enforce the law is a trap, but boosting this
"YouGov has ICE at 39% favorable, 52% unfavorable...But this top line really understates the intensity of public backlash to ICE and its tactics. In February 2025, just 19% of Americans held a strongly unfavorable view of ICE. Today, 40% do."
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
January 9, 2026 at 12:31 PM
what we clearly need is a plan to restructure internal immigration enforcement and regulation, purge, reorient, and restrict ICE and CBP, that can replace a slogan that is both maximalist and insufficient
Reposted by Michael Caley
I’m not sure why we would expect anything different?
If I stop using my thyroid medication, my thyroid will return to its hyperactive state within a couple of months.
If I stop using my thyroid medication, my thyroid will return to its hyperactive state within a couple of months.
Many people who stop using weight loss drugs will return to their previous weight within two years, a new review of existing research has found. https://cnn.it/4jzMQHs
January 9, 2026 at 5:26 AM
I’m not sure why we would expect anything different?
If I stop using my thyroid medication, my thyroid will return to its hyperactive state within a couple of months.
If I stop using my thyroid medication, my thyroid will return to its hyperactive state within a couple of months.
Reposted by Michael Caley
Remarkable scenes of nationwide protest across Iran. Strongest dissent against the regime since 2009. Videos show Iranians chanting "Death to the dictator” [Khomeni] and “Long live the Shah.”
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Huge anti-government protests in Tehran and other Iranian cities, videos show - BBC News
Rallies on major roads in the capital and in Iran's second city were peaceful and not dispersed by security forces.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 9, 2026 at 11:43 AM
Remarkable scenes of nationwide protest across Iran. Strongest dissent against the regime since 2009. Videos show Iranians chanting "Death to the dictator” [Khomeni] and “Long live the Shah.”
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
the right wing smear machine has apparently found literally nothing on Renee Good besides that she was politically liberal
they're not even able to pull off "she's no angel" because it seems like she actually was an angel
they're not even able to pull off "she's no angel" because it seems like she actually was an angel
Stuff like this is the reason why the good Lord blessed humanity with the gifts of tar and feathers
January 9, 2026 at 11:34 AM
the right wing smear machine has apparently found literally nothing on Renee Good besides that she was politically liberal
they're not even able to pull off "she's no angel" because it seems like she actually was an angel
they're not even able to pull off "she's no angel" because it seems like she actually was an angel
Reposted by Michael Caley
This is what I think of when I recognize that the lies Tricia McLaughlin, Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, JD Vance, and Trump all told about Renee Good's killing are INCONSISTENT.
They're not just inconsistent with the video. They're inconsistent with each other.
They're not just inconsistent with the video. They're inconsistent with each other.
“If everybody always lies to you, the consequence is not that you believe the lies, but rather that nobody believes anything any longer… And a people that no longer can believe anything cannot make up its mind…And with such a people you can then do what you please.”
Hannah Arendt
Hannah Arendt
January 9, 2026 at 11:27 AM
This is what I think of when I recognize that the lies Tricia McLaughlin, Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, JD Vance, and Trump all told about Renee Good's killing are INCONSISTENT.
They're not just inconsistent with the video. They're inconsistent with each other.
They're not just inconsistent with the video. They're inconsistent with each other.
Reposted by Michael Caley
the guy just saying c'mon baby over and over is truly adding color to the commentary
January 9, 2026 at 4:00 AM
the guy just saying c'mon baby over and over is truly adding color to the commentary
Reposted by Michael Caley
I feel the same way watching Malachi Toney that I did watching Brock Bowers in his freshman year: it’s unfair to opposing teams that he has to play college football for two more years
January 9, 2026 at 3:58 AM
I feel the same way watching Malachi Toney that I did watching Brock Bowers in his freshman year: it’s unfair to opposing teams that he has to play college football for two more years