Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
Pinned
Expecting Goals Premier League Team Ratings
A new method for evaluating soccer teams in the major European Leagues, and an opportunity to discover whether I am biased against your favorite team or not.
www.expectinggoals.com
a new Expecting Goals newsletter!
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
the Trump admin is transparently and oafishly corrupt, and FIFA is never more comfortable than when engaging with oafishly corrupt state actors
the problem for Trump and FIFA is that the US still has *some* rule of law and their corruption is so oafish www.nytimes.com/athletic/683...
the problem for Trump and FIFA is that the US still has *some* rule of law and their corruption is so oafish www.nytimes.com/athletic/683...
Why FIFA’s 2026 World Cup draw is at the heart of a Kennedy Center controversy
How much FIFA has paid to host the 2026 World Cup draw at the Washington, D.C. performing arts venue is under scrutiny
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:53 PM
the Trump admin is transparently and oafishly corrupt, and FIFA is never more comfortable than when engaging with oafishly corrupt state actors
the problem for Trump and FIFA is that the US still has *some* rule of law and their corruption is so oafish www.nytimes.com/athletic/683...
the problem for Trump and FIFA is that the US still has *some* rule of law and their corruption is so oafish www.nytimes.com/athletic/683...
Reposted by Michael Caley
We’re accepting applications for our (paid! remote!) summer internship! professors who follow me please share with any students interested in writing
Would You Like To Be Defector’s Sixth-Ever Editorial Intern? | Defector
Big news: Defector is looking to hire editorial interns for the summer of 2026. Wow! That could be you! How could it be you? I am here to answer that question, and many more. What will a Defector inte...
defector.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:46 PM
We’re accepting applications for our (paid! remote!) summer internship! professors who follow me please share with any students interested in writing
Reposted by Michael Caley
there's an old stereotype of china as outcompeting america because of masses of cheap labor. but as michael pettis puts it, contemporary chinese firms don't act as if labor is free. they act as if capital is free
“Yang Jiemin, VP of the state-owned company behind the port, said its highly automated operations require 60% fewer workers than traditional ports. It underscores one advantage Chinese companies have in deploying AI versus the U.S.: no independent labor unions.” www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-r... (🎁🔗)
Robots and AI Are Already Remaking the Chinese Economy
China’s factories and ports are learning to make and export more goods faster, cheaper and with fewer workers.
www.wsj.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
there's an old stereotype of china as outcompeting america because of masses of cheap labor. but as michael pettis puts it, contemporary chinese firms don't act as if labor is free. they act as if capital is free
Reposted by Michael Caley
she's real and she's my friend
November 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
she's real and she's my friend
hey @jccoltin.bsky.social this website is full of freaks who love sharing links to stories when you publish them come hang out (and you can just block all the annoying people)
everyone please join me in celebrating @jccoltin.bsky.social and also let’s bully him into using this website more (respectfully)
November 25, 2025 at 2:17 PM
hey @jccoltin.bsky.social this website is full of freaks who love sharing links to stories when you publish them come hang out (and you can just block all the annoying people)
I've been confused why Republicans have been going on tv and saying they want to go to war for oil in Venezuela because
1) it makes objectively zero sense
2) these are psychotic anticommunist freaks who obviously want to go to war for ideological reasons
but I found the explanation!
1) it makes objectively zero sense
2) these are psychotic anticommunist freaks who obviously want to go to war for ideological reasons
but I found the explanation!
Rep. Salazar on Venezuela: "We're about to go in ... we need to go in ... Venezuela for the American oil companies will be a field day"
November 25, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I've been confused why Republicans have been going on tv and saying they want to go to war for oil in Venezuela because
1) it makes objectively zero sense
2) these are psychotic anticommunist freaks who obviously want to go to war for ideological reasons
but I found the explanation!
1) it makes objectively zero sense
2) these are psychotic anticommunist freaks who obviously want to go to war for ideological reasons
but I found the explanation!
yeah I'm not a huge fan of the way MLS has been run but given the obvious fragility of European soccer economics compared to how robust North American sporting economics are, I dunno, I think they're gonna be a pretty good medium term proposition
an underdiscussed aspect of "should MLS align economically with "world football?" is "how sustainable are the economics of world football outside twenty teams in England, plus maybe Spain and Germany?"
the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse
November 25, 2025 at 1:46 PM
yeah I'm not a huge fan of the way MLS has been run but given the obvious fragility of European soccer economics compared to how robust North American sporting economics are, I dunno, I think they're gonna be a pretty good medium term proposition
when the only use case for your product is crime, you don't get to pick and choose only the more politically favored crimes
Billionaire Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, pardoned by Donald Trump, has been accused of facilitating millions of dollars’ worth of payments to Hamas in the wake of its attack on Israel on October 7 2023. Zhao also financed the Trump family's entrance into the cryptocurrency market.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao accused of facilitating payments to Hamas
Crypto tycoon pardoned by Donald Trump faces US court complaint from families of victims of October 7 attack
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:14 PM
when the only use case for your product is crime, you don't get to pick and choose only the more politically favored crimes
Reposted by Michael Caley
The way this ends/normalizes is these rights get gobbled up by international streamers.
The problem with it ending that way is they get gobbled up for pennies and leagues lose a (in some cases THE) major source of revenue.
The problem with it ending that way is they get gobbled up for pennies and leagues lose a (in some cases THE) major source of revenue.
the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse
The news that Belgian football feared: as happened in France, DAZN is pulling out of its broadcasting deal with the ProLeague with immediate effect. Should no solution be found (which appears the likeliest scenario), the league's 16th round will not be broadcast in Belgium.
November 25, 2025 at 1:09 PM
The way this ends/normalizes is these rights get gobbled up by international streamers.
The problem with it ending that way is they get gobbled up for pennies and leagues lose a (in some cases THE) major source of revenue.
The problem with it ending that way is they get gobbled up for pennies and leagues lose a (in some cases THE) major source of revenue.
the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse
The news that Belgian football feared: as happened in France, DAZN is pulling out of its broadcasting deal with the ProLeague with immediate effect. Should no solution be found (which appears the likeliest scenario), the league's 16th round will not be broadcast in Belgium.
November 25, 2025 at 12:22 PM
the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse
these two paragraphs from @michellegoldberg.bsky.social really capture the profound, groundbreaking level of stupidity that ties together the different factions of the Trump administration escalating toward war with Venezuela
every one of these ideas is so dumb
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
every one of these ideas is so dumb
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
November 25, 2025 at 3:57 AM
these two paragraphs from @michellegoldberg.bsky.social really capture the profound, groundbreaking level of stupidity that ties together the different factions of the Trump administration escalating toward war with Venezuela
every one of these ideas is so dumb
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
every one of these ideas is so dumb
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
Reposted by Michael Caley
There's a non-zero chance that Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba could play the last cup final of their careers on San Diego State's football field and I think that's beautiful
Compared to what we've had in the past here at Snapdragon, this isn't the worst, but we'll still have some college football lines here for SDFC v Minnesota
November 25, 2025 at 3:25 AM
There's a non-zero chance that Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba could play the last cup final of their careers on San Diego State's football field and I think that's beautiful
Reposted by Michael Caley
Morale at Manchester United is worse than we thought
November 24, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Morale at Manchester United is worse than we thought
<labour post election meeting>
-ok guys we won and the economy is a basket case but we promised not to raise taxes and that puts us in a real bind with a low growth medium inflation economy
-what if we just keep coming up with stupider and stupider ideas until we're not in charge anymore
-ok guys we won and the economy is a basket case but we promised not to raise taxes and that puts us in a real bind with a low growth medium inflation economy
-what if we just keep coming up with stupider and stupider ideas until we're not in charge anymore
Trevor Phillips proposes banning "remittances" (ie: imposing currency/exchange controls on international cash transfers by foreign nationals from Britain). He says this would disincentivise immigration, in a Times piece saying the Home Secretary needs to go [much] further
archive.ph/RlXPj
archive.ph/RlXPj
November 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM
<labour post election meeting>
-ok guys we won and the economy is a basket case but we promised not to raise taxes and that puts us in a real bind with a low growth medium inflation economy
-what if we just keep coming up with stupider and stupider ideas until we're not in charge anymore
-ok guys we won and the economy is a basket case but we promised not to raise taxes and that puts us in a real bind with a low growth medium inflation economy
-what if we just keep coming up with stupider and stupider ideas until we're not in charge anymore
Reposted by Michael Caley
damn new organized crime revenue stream just dropped
Trevor Phillips proposes banning "remittances" (ie: imposing currency/exchange controls on international cash transfers by foreign nationals from Britain). He says this would disincentivise immigration, in a Times piece saying the Home Secretary needs to go [much] further
archive.ph/RlXPj
archive.ph/RlXPj
November 24, 2025 at 10:31 PM
damn new organized crime revenue stream just dropped
it makes sense that the violent conduct rule is not written to carve out "but violent conduct toward your teammates is ok" because that seems insane but also it's very very funny and also feels slightly insane to get sent off for slapping your teammate
November 24, 2025 at 9:01 PM
it makes sense that the violent conduct rule is not written to carve out "but violent conduct toward your teammates is ok" because that seems insane but also it's very very funny and also feels slightly insane to get sent off for slapping your teammate
Reposted by Michael Caley
this is an electorate practically crying out for Ayanna Pressley lol
UNH poll | 11/13-11/17 LV
Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary
Ed Markey 34% (incumbent)
Seth Moulton 25%
Alex Rikleen 2%
Write in someone else 3%
Don’t know/undecided 35%
scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcont...
Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary
Ed Markey 34% (incumbent)
Seth Moulton 25%
Alex Rikleen 2%
Write in someone else 3%
Don’t know/undecided 35%
scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcont...
November 24, 2025 at 8:30 PM
this is an electorate practically crying out for Ayanna Pressley lol
which Premier League team has -- by far -- completed the most crosses into the penalty area this season
November 24, 2025 at 8:43 PM
which Premier League team has -- by far -- completed the most crosses into the penalty area this season
Reposted by Michael Caley
ding ding ding
November 24, 2025 at 8:11 PM
ding ding ding
I don't know if I've even seen a bankshot strategy in politics work as well as the "healthcare shutdown" the Dems came up with / accidentally backed into as the only way to unify their conference
somehow we've now got Republicans debating healthcare bills it's crazy www.ms.now/news/trump-a...
somehow we've now got Republicans debating healthcare bills it's crazy www.ms.now/news/trump-a...
Trump wanted to extend Obamacare health care subsidies. Some congressional Republicans are upset.
It looks like the president may have to go back and tinker with his plan.
www.ms.now
November 24, 2025 at 8:05 PM
I don't know if I've even seen a bankshot strategy in politics work as well as the "healthcare shutdown" the Dems came up with / accidentally backed into as the only way to unify their conference
somehow we've now got Republicans debating healthcare bills it's crazy www.ms.now/news/trump-a...
somehow we've now got Republicans debating healthcare bills it's crazy www.ms.now/news/trump-a...
it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour is managing the macroeconomy via individual policy polling
With Rachel Reeves reportedly set to apply a new tax on tuition fees paid by overseas students, most Britons support such a move at the previously mooted level of 6%
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 24, 2025 at 7:19 PM
it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour is managing the macroeconomy via individual policy polling
Reposted by Michael Caley
this dumb shit is what i mean when i say this is a purely aesthetic “politics.” yeah man, why can’t we have a fusion of cosmopolitan social democracy and revanchist hierarchies of wealth and privilege? tough question.
Matt Stoller: “..Trump & Mamdani defeated establishment in their own way, representing hunger of voters on the right & left who want something different. If those sides cd come together.. that would be a sea change in how we organize our political economy”.
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
Monopoly Round-Up: Why the Establishment Freaked Out Over a Mamdani-Trump Press Conference
Meta wins its antitrust case, there are now two fire truck antitrust claims, the stock market got wobbly, and Larry Summers was exiled from the establishment, at least for now.
www.thebignewsletter.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:04 PM
this dumb shit is what i mean when i say this is a purely aesthetic “politics.” yeah man, why can’t we have a fusion of cosmopolitan social democracy and revanchist hierarchies of wealth and privilege? tough question.
Reposted by Michael Caley
Like the Afghanistan pullout it also came at the same time people started getting mad about the economy and was the moment people who weakly supported him were like well I didn't vote for this.
it's very fitting that in retrospect, Trump's failure to oust Jimmy Kimmel was the point that his administration turned. It's been all losses ever since
November 24, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Like the Afghanistan pullout it also came at the same time people started getting mad about the economy and was the moment people who weakly supported him were like well I didn't vote for this.
Reposted by Michael Caley
Are you a Democrat in Brooklyn who wants to help build a more ambitious, more effective party?
One concrete thing you can do in 2026 is run for County Committee with @repyourblock.bsky.social!
Sign up for updates and key info here:
One concrete thing you can do in 2026 is run for County Committee with @repyourblock.bsky.social!
Sign up for updates and key info here:
Rep Your Block
A campaign to elect everyday Brooklynites to the Kings County Democratic Party
www.repyourblock.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Are you a Democrat in Brooklyn who wants to help build a more ambitious, more effective party?
One concrete thing you can do in 2026 is run for County Committee with @repyourblock.bsky.social!
Sign up for updates and key info here:
One concrete thing you can do in 2026 is run for County Committee with @repyourblock.bsky.social!
Sign up for updates and key info here:
this Anthropic research is explicitly about "AI safety" but I'm fascinated by what it says about language
there seem to be massive, broad correlations between different anti-social language uses, and a LLM that begins doing one anti-social thing will do many more www.anthropic.com/research/eme...
there seem to be massive, broad correlations between different anti-social language uses, and a LLM that begins doing one anti-social thing will do many more www.anthropic.com/research/eme...
From shortcuts to sabotage: natural emergent misalignment from reward hacking
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.
www.anthropic.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:45 PM
this Anthropic research is explicitly about "AI safety" but I'm fascinated by what it says about language
there seem to be massive, broad correlations between different anti-social language uses, and a LLM that begins doing one anti-social thing will do many more www.anthropic.com/research/eme...
there seem to be massive, broad correlations between different anti-social language uses, and a LLM that begins doing one anti-social thing will do many more www.anthropic.com/research/eme...