Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
13K followers 570 following 8.9K posts
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Pinned
michaelcaley.bsky.social
brand new Expecting Goals study on soccer aging curves, position changes, and league effects

looking at trends in position changes, different trends in movement away from goal among attackers and defenders, and the strangeness of German center backs

www.expectinggoals.com/p/building-m...
Building Marcel, Part III: Contexts and Confounders
Using positional data and modeling to suggest the next steps forward and what may have been missed in the previous newsletters.
www.expectinggoals.com
Reposted by Michael Caley
normcharlatan.bsky.social
This guy is journalism royalty. His mother, April, was a famous tv reporter in New York City for Channel 6 News.
oliverdarcy.bsky.social
Some scoops in here: Adam O'Neal is telling people he will helm The WaPo's flagship opinion podcast, spending upwards of four hours a day on it. He's also indicated, per a source, that he plans to remain in his current job for decades. www.status.news/p/washington...
Reposted by Michael Caley
megrowler.fangraphs.com
hand to god, he then took this shirt off to reveal a "Dump 62 Here" shirt underneath
yayroger.bsky.social
A gentleman with a "Dump Here 61" shirt caught the Raleigh home run (on a bounce.)
Reposted by Michael Caley
cjzero.bsky.social
I cannot believe they sent Vladdy here but he made it, the leap into the slide is 🤌🏼
Reposted by Michael Caley
alexshephard.bsky.social
ironically this sounds like the kinds of things a fake new yorker would say
Reposted by Michael Caley
ericmgarcia.bsky.social
Ruben Gallego on whether Trump is talking to Democrats:

“Look, the President clearly has some kind of dementia, so I think there's a he's probably talking to himself, or think he's talking to a Democrat, but I sincerely doubt that that's actually he's actually physically talking to a Democrat.“
Reposted by Michael Caley
kleinman.bsky.social
I think it's @cooperlund.online who first pointed out that they're not so much interested in fascism as generating fascist content
bencollins.bsky.social
Pretty clear Stephen Miller, Noem, Hegseth and Trump are trying to provoke a Civil War at this point. What's interesting is they want to do it now, because even though they're unpopular, they seem to believe this is the most popular they'll be ever again. We can't let them win.
governor.ca.gov
This is a breathtaking abuse of the law and power by the President of the United States.

America is on the brink of martial law.

Do not be silent.
Reposted by Michael Caley
sethpartnow.bsky.social
It’s been my long-held belief that coaching D3 hoops translates better to the NBA than D1. I don’t think the same is true of football, but the player-coach power dynamic is closer between “ima go to the owner & get this clown fired” & “I don’t need this, lemme just go party & study to be a dentist”
michaelcaley.bsky.social
well that gives us two candidates I have serious doubts about

I guess the upside hope is that a primary will test both of them
michaelcaley.bsky.social
I understand the third-worldist history of treating support for Hamas as left and that's where these various groups are coming from, but it's always kind of wild to me that support for a group which is not in any way left wing gets framed as further left than not supporting or condemning them
michaelcaley.bsky.social
I would have thought that unilateral executive *spending* would be the line for the Supreme Court and the conservative elite but I don't know anymore man
michaelcaley.bsky.social
President AOC gonna fund Medicare for All unilaterally ok
peark.es
Well that's not how appropriations work at all

*WHITE HOUSE TO TRANSFER TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND WIC: LEAVITT
Reposted by Michael Caley
hailey.at
if you post your content on _any_ serious social media site on the entire internet in 2025, there is going to be ai moderation used to moderate that content. if you don't want this, go and participate in mybb forum with 500 users.
hailey.at
*rubbing temples, rocking back and forth on the floor in the corner of the room*
ai assisted moderation is not generative ai...ai assisted moderation is not generative ai...ai assisted moderation is not generative ai...ai assisted moderation is not generative ai...ai assisted moderati
Reposted by Michael Caley
kleinman.bsky.social
It's not land acknowledgments or arguing over pronouns or emojis, it's this. Also telling people to read the most boring books on the planet bsky.app/profile/tsbu...
tsbuttry.bsky.social
Undercover Informant: Boss, they had 10 speakers, each one started talking about having clear, concise messaging. Each one went on and on for 10 minutes with completely different talking points...

Boss:
a man is sitting in front of a sign that says i think i 'm going to throw up .
Alt: John C. Reilly saying "i think i 'm going to throw up"
media.tenor.com
michaelcaley.bsky.social
back in the 2010s there was a whole world of pre-Tate ideologically misogynist blogs and stuff, it was called the manosphere
michaelcaley.bsky.social
this seems exactly right

it's not entirely clear what the constraints on Russ Vought are -- clearly they are not "the law" -- but his apparent incapacity to even begin the process of laying off federal workers during the shutdown must reflect some real constraint
joshtpm.bsky.social
We're now hearing threats about withholding post-shutdown pay. They first threatened widespread new firings? So why hasn't that happened. As I noted last week despite all the threats none of the firing machinery had actually been started up. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/dont-...
Don’t Believe the Hype: Trump Bum-Rushing DC Reporters Edition
News comes today that Russ Vought is now threatening not to pay...
talkingpointsmemo.com
michaelcaley.bsky.social
certainly Rogen and Von and these dudes are all linked, they make longform hangout podcasts with listenership that's like 3/4 men under 40 and has tons of overlap.

just it's weird the word was repurposed for them when it used to mean something different?
michaelcaley.bsky.social
I have thought of it as the anti side refusing to acknowledge the technology exists, while the pro side is only interested in a messianic future in which the technology is totally different
michaelcaley.bsky.social
I feel like there's been a weird and massive expansion of what the term "manosphere" means

from a pretty specific and tightly knit set of ideological misogynists to a bunch of kinda dumb, kinda conservative guys who make incredibly popular longform hangout podcasts about all kinds of random shit
rollingstone.com
“I voted for none of this."

Prominent influencers, including Theo Von, Joe Rogan, and Andrew Schulz, are starting to distance themselves from the president they helped propel to the White House.

Story: www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
Reposted by Michael Caley
theophite.bsky.social
waymo has a limited rollout because it is a bad business, not a bad technology. just depreciating $60k worth of optics per car is comparably expensive to paying a guy $10/hr to drive it.
bluespacecanary.bsky.social
It's fascinating to me that there's a whole "AI skeptic" misinformation ecosystem out there that somehow continues to deny that Waymo exists. Like, this is easy to fact check! Waymo runs publicly-available service in 5 cities, you can just go look up how it works and see it's not planned routes!
A bluesky post with the user's handle cropped out: "In 2015, I was told, confidently, that AI would end human drivers in the trucking industry w/in 5 years. 

[Begin my highlight]10 years later, and there’s what-some experimental cabs rolling around a few cities in heavily-engineered preset routes?[end my highlight]

Not to mention the fact that the AI industry itself is Enron on heroin."
Reposted by Michael Caley
quantian.bsky.social
Man I’m in like the top 0.1% of Americans for, like, quantitative financial modeling and the idea of having to do some kind of actuarial underwriting of my expected healthcare expenses to buy a plan strikes me as such an insane way to run a system (no shade on OP for the great thread, to be clear)
tznkai.bsky.social
It's open enrollment time so here's a convenient peg to hang a little tutorial about how to choose your health insurance.

Most of the advice you get is bad. Most of your instincts are bad. I however used to work for a health insurance company and I do arithmetic for a living so I can help.
batmansrobyn.bsky.social
Personally I think it's great that my company's HR sends out an official looking tool where they even ask you to pre-populate your healthcare providers and instead of being the actual insurance enrollment process it's just some bullshit checklist to try and convince me I actually don't want a PPO
michaelcaley.bsky.social
this is really good stuff from @gelliottmorris.com

the core issue is that polling in the subjunctive is dumb. if you ask people to imagine things, people will imagine things

when you ask questions about actual, material acts of political violence, rates of support run incredibly low
joshtpm.bsky.social
Glad Morris is on this issue. Obviously political violence in our society and the openness to it is a big issue. BUT I do think a lot of these polls, intentionally or not, have a way of amplifying very hypothetical questions. Or from a different perspective ... www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
www.gelliottmorris.com
Reposted by Michael Caley
joshtpm.bsky.social
Glad Morris is on this issue. Obviously political violence in our society and the openness to it is a big issue. BUT I do think a lot of these polls, intentionally or not, have a way of amplifying very hypothetical questions. Or from a different perspective ... www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
www.gelliottmorris.com
michaelcaley.bsky.social
I mean certainly he has no concept of this beyond him on the cover of Time with Israelis and Palestinians shaking hands

but if he takes the leadership role and then tries to back out, it won't be easy to do -- in both perception and institutions these things have their own momentum
Reposted by Michael Caley
themlg.bsky.social
If asked I would serve.
bendwalsh.bsky.social
Stats Grantland, the people are clamoring for this